mackerel_sky Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Hoping this Gulf of Mexico action that is supposed to be getting active as we head into October, comes to fruition and brings the SE some much needed rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Mack wouldn't hold my breath. Looking at long range does show some potential for tropical/sub tropical development in the next 2 weeks. I think from central FL north will be hard to get some significant rains. If anything meaningful. Watching model runs its clear the dry spell has kicked in from central FL north into the south and southeast. Any development will be be along the baroclinic zone. Which should remain off the SE coast S FL into the southern GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 Josh MorgermanVerified account @iCyclone 1h1 hour ago 12Z GFS & Euro (shown) now both suggest #Hurricane #NATE on N Gulf Coast late this weekend, anywhere from LA to FL. Getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 35m35 minutes ago 18z GFS shows 978mb at landfall in SE La, Sunday. 12z ECMWF was around 971mb. #Invest90L next name is #Nate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Opal style track, I can hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Que Shettley: NHC Cone Right over his house and just what the doctor ordered. Gonna overseed this weekend and hope it can germinate, get started in time to beat the forst 10/20 average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 14 hours ago, LithiaWx said: Opal style track, I can hope lol Darwin effect should be in full bloom for this one where you are. Probably won't see much of any major tree or power outage issues at all unless this is worse than Irma since all the weaklings got taken out already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 19m19 minutes ago Here are the Key Messages for Advisory 1 on Tropical Depression Sixteen. http://hurricanes.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Crazy to see the differences between GFS/Euro at day 3-4. Would think the Euro. ticks a little west at 12z. Edit: Looks like UK is right in the middle of the GFS/Euro at day 4, just east of Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 I'm overseeding tomorrow...so a nice soaking rain would be appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Looks like a nice rainy Sunday and Monday for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Geez. Euro drops close to 10 inches of rain for The eastern escarpment and southern escarpment of blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Geez. Euro drops close to 10 inches of rain for The eastern escarpment and southern escarpment of blue ridge. A lot can happen in 5 days, but this could be Opal-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 25 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Geez. Euro drops close to 10 inches of rain for The eastern escarpment and southern escarpment of blue ridge. It also shows 70 mph wind gusts from just N of Columbia up to CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 The models going to fluctuate. But the 3 main players to watch is how quick the SE ridge breaks down. The 500mb trough developing digging into the SE. Third wether or not a secondary LP forms in the central GOM. The goofus has been showing that. If the third happens of course the trough that is currently drapped across central FL into GOM would indicate a strenghting ridge opposed to weakening. But as in the old old days. I say go with the EE(Nam)/Euro rule. Both showing a turn early east of Mobile. Atm I'd say from Pensacola to the Big Bend near Cross City fair game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Biggest cluster is between Mobile and Panama City. Looks like this could be another TS that's very impactful to GA again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Biggest cluster is between Mobile and Panama City. Looks like this could be another TS that's very impactful to GA again. Accelerating rapidly, don't think we will see excessive rainfall, 1-3" maybe! Models have overdone precip quite a lot this year from 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Accelerating rapidly, don't think we will see excessive rainfall, 1-3" maybe! Models have overdone precip quite a lot this year from 4-5 days out. LOL...yep considering I haven't had any precip in weeks. This appears to miss my our area well to our west but should get a large area a couple of inches of rain at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 There is going to likely be a pretty sharp cutoff around GSO/CLT with a lot less rain to the east and heavier rains in the Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Looks like an opal track exactly. Going to take some serious power and forward speed though. Opal was racing north when it clobbered GA. Snowgoose, I see your point. Gotta be stronger than Irma for some damage here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Opal wiki https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2017 Author Share Posted October 10, 2017 Another name for the year... 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 10 Location: 31.1°N 38.0°W Moving: SE at 6 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, Solak said: Another name for the year... 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 10 Location: 31.1°N 38.0°W Moving: SE at 6 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 60 mph She’s going to set some sort of record about consecutive hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 11, 2017 Author Share Posted October 11, 2017 They've called it a 'cane... Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly. Dvorak estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery. However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly. In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 4 hours ago, Solak said: They've called it a 'cane... Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly. Dvorak estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery. However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly. In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is higher than normal. She looking good now....at least a 85 mph cane which is the highest they take her too....latest ADT closer to 100 mph UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 12 OCT 2017 Time : 004500 UTC Lat : 29:56:42 N Lon : 35:52:50 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.7 5.1 5.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 13, 2017 Author Share Posted October 13, 2017 Something I learned today.......... " There is significantly more spread in Ophelia's track by day 5, with the GFS moving Ophelia over the North Sea while the ECMWF and UKMET turn the cyclone eastward over Norway. However, NHC's graphical product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 4 hours ago, Solak said: Something I learned today.......... " There is significantly more spread in Ophelia's track by day 5, with the GFS moving Ophelia over the North Sea while the ECMWF and UKMET turn the cyclone eastward over Norway. However, NHC's graphical product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4." So there are no mets at NHC that can make a forecast? I'm beginning to think we might as well fire all the mets and spend their freed up salary on better computer programmers for the models. Obviously, I don't believe that but it's a damn bad look to basically say, "Sorry, the computers don't cover that area so we have no clue, but GOOD LUCK!!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 14, 2017 Author Share Posted October 14, 2017 Maybe at some point European agencies take over official forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Forecast from Irish version of NWS.....I chuckled at thundery rain.....they are calling for gust to 80 mph for coastal areas though.... Monday: On Monday stormy conditions are expected to develop especially in southern and western areas. Current indications suggest that Ex Hurricane Ophelia will track northwards close to the west coast of Ireland, bringing storm force winds, heavy possibly thundery rain and very high Seas during Monday and Monday night to southern and western coastal counties especially. Some flooding is likely due to heavy rainfall and very high seas. The storm will move away to the north later Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: Forecast from Irish version of NWS.....I chuckled at thundery rain.....they are calling for gust to 80 mph for coastal areas though.... Monday: On Monday stormy conditions are expected to develop especially in southern and western areas. Current indications suggest that Ex Hurricane Ophelia will track northwards close to the west coast of Ireland, bringing storm force winds, heavy possibly thundery rain and very high Seas during Monday and Monday night to southern and western coastal counties especially. Some flooding is likely due to heavy rainfall and very high seas. The storm will move away to the north later Monday night. She was just upgraded to a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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