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2017 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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IMO what will become Lee will be OTS and  Maria will be the one that has the best shot to come knocking. The afterlife of Jose is the only shot at creating a weakness out in the Atlantic and catching what should be named Maria and saving east coast trouble in 7-10 days. Outside of that looking at H5 setup steering appears to be one with a street that deadends on the east coast, Hispanola would be our only opportunity to avoid trouble. 

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3 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

IMO what will become Lee will be OTS and  Maria will be the one that has the best shot to come knocking. The afterlife of Jose is the only shot at creating a weakness out in the Atlantic and catching what should be named Maria and saving east coast trouble in 7-10 days. Outside of that looking at H5 setup steering appears to be one with a street that deadends on the east coast, Hispanola would be our only opportunity to avoid trouble. 

GFS running a crazy track on the 12Z run has a 933 cane hitting the Carolinas from almost due west.....after it blocks a OTS track well offshore to boot....

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Its more WNW and storm number 2 is in the Gulf of Mexico right after..

 

Yeah that track is pretty unlikely but that angle of approach and landfall location is pretty much worse case scenario for my backyard.....brings the center just SW of me and keeps this area in the N then NE then E/SE core......

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32 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah that track is pretty unlikely but that angle of approach and landfall location is pretty much worse case scenario for my backyard.....brings the center just SW of me and keeps this area in the N then NE then E/SE core......

That would be a horrible track for the Crystal Coast. 

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Posted in other forum, but man that pattern on the models across the board is ripe for a SE US landfall system to my untrained eye. Behind Jose the models show a nice HP/ridge forming in response to the -PNA it looks like. Definitely eye brow raising tonight when we have the GFS/CMC/EURO all show a major TS hitting the SE Coast Day 9-11. 

Do you guys know if this system would be Lee or Maria? 

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50 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Posted in other forum, but man that pattern on the models across the board is ripe for a SE US landfall system to my untrained eye. Behind Jose the models show a nice HP/ridge forming in response to the -PNA it looks like. Definitely eye brow raising tonight when we have the GFS/CMC/EURO all show a major TS hitting the SE Coast Day 9-11. 

Do you guys know if this system would be Lee or Maria? 

Depends on if TD14 gets named first or not. 9-11 days is an eternity in the modeling world and so many things can change. The one thing to take away is that the signal is there for a cane to be in the SW Atlantic in a threatening position and that's all.

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All the models have a cane just off the SE coast at 00Z with the GFS hitting GA, the 06Z GFS hits the Carolinas close to Charleston. The chances of a storm threatening the SE is pretty real now, stuff like exact track wont be hashed out till its a 2-4 days out which is still 10 days out....there is however uncanny agreement between the CMC/Euro/GFS in the 7 day range of a storm in or just east of the Bahamas they are all within a 100 miles of each other...thats a problem for the SE.

59bd214237c8c_CMC1.thumb.png.6b9ad360dddfa3301995ca3261a945c5.png

59bd2151e2ac4_Euro1.thumb.png.6a8a75e5e1c01c6f920776caa0580070.png

59bd216197af0_GFS1.thumb.png.56635c7d307515fe95e562c4ab1e5b7b.png

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Solak said:

Antigua Met Service @anumetservice 14m14 minutes ago

 
 

Most models have disturbanceAL96 as a #storm in 12 hrs and a #hurricane in 60 hrsDJ2RuTLUQAA6Sxu.jpg

Off to the races putting a hurricane in the same general position of Irma.  I guess we are going to wait and see if this one follows climo more closely than Irma.  A safe bet is usually the coastal scraper or the landfall in eastern NC. 

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41 minutes ago, Solak said:

NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 5m5 minutes ago

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles.

Why they dont just go with TD15 is silly to me....hell they could probably call it Lee, or Maria.....the HWRF takes it right over Guadeloupe as a strong hurricane then looks on track to hit Puerto Rico...HMON hit Dominica as a strong hurricane it will be good for them to miss the north islands but at the same time this will just add to the misery....heck best case would be for it to hit Barbuda no one is there and the buildings are all wrecked anyways but this will be well south of there apparently. 

Going to be another long 10 days of tracking what is likely to be yet another stong hurricane landfall on the US.

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13 minutes ago, Solak said:

145528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Ouch.  Those islands can handle pretty much up to cat 3 or 4 pretty easily.  Still really terrible to see some of the islands decimated by cat 5 Irma are still going to possibly deal with hurricane force winds again so soon after.  I'm sure there are tons of loose objects that will turn into missles if that track verifies.  Not worst case stuff but certainly not a good outlook. 

 

And i I agree with downeast.  This thing may very well hit the US.  She's coming in at a low latitude I bet Don S could post some stats about % chance at us LF based on current position.  I bet you the odds are over 50/50 atm.

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Current GFS track is nasty for Puerto Rico keeps the center just off or right on the south coast and then stays just barely on or right along the NE coast of Hispaniola which wont help it any but it avoids the high mts in the middle of the island...quite a bit of agreement in the globals overall that Puerto Rico is going to have major impact from this storm....followed by the Bahamas....then somewhere in the SE unless it can miss wide right....

Edit: the 12Z GFS run today would be brutal for NC coast as it crawls ashore it goes 180 miles in 30 or so hrs and is within 60 miles of the coast for 18-20 hrs....thats brutal even if its only a Cat 1 the surge up the rivers of eastern NC would rival Irene...that run puts MBY in the center....

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3 minutes ago, Solak said:

Interesting stat via a Weather Channel met...

Jonathan ErdmanVerified account @wxjerdman

Only 3 times before have 2 #hurricanes tracked w/in 75 mi. of the Virgin Isl. in the same season: 1999, 1916, 1852. Never 2 Cat 3+. #Maria

I've visited Philipsburg St. maarten and Road Town, Tortola.  Both islands twice,  they were both so beautiful.  Hard to accept that if and when I go back they won't look the same for a very long time.  Especially Tortola BVI looks to have just been trashed. 

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On 9/17/2017 at 9:19 AM, Solak said:

Interesting stat via a Weather Channel met...

Jonathan ErdmanVerified account @wxjerdman

Only 3 times before have 2 #hurricanes tracked w/in 75 mi. of the Virgin Isl. in the same season: 1999, 1916, 1852. Never 2 Cat 3+. #Maria

You can make up stats like that all the time. Pick any arbitrary set of conditions and they'll probably occur only rarely.

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