Solak Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Looks like there's a possibility this weekend for something off the Bahamas. @crownweather The tropical cyclone fcstg hat has been put on. Closely watching for pot. dvlpmt of a sub-tropical storm Sun/Mon east of Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 JB and the gang @ Weatherbell Going with : 10-12 named storms 4-6 hurricanes 1-2 majors - less activity than normal due to developing El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 20, 2017 Author Share Posted April 20, 2017 Arlene has formed... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Arlene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 20, 2017 Author Share Posted April 20, 2017 Philip KlotzbachVerified account @philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago The 4 prior Aprils that had Atlantic tropical or subtropical cyclone activity averaged seasonal TC activity at near-normal levels. #arlene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 2m2 minutes ago NOAA 2017 Hurricane Outlook released. Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. http://buff.ly/2r0txPd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 32 minutes ago, Solak said: Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 2m2 minutes ago NOAA 2017 Hurricane Outlook released. Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. http://buff.ly/2r0txPd Just don't see it with a developing El Niño , but I guess time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 All it takes is something like Matthew to make it a memorable year.....we keep getting these troughs off the east coast and homegrown system chances will be higher than normal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 The models have been hinting about GOM Low around the June 18th-19th time period for several runs now. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 8 hours ago, NavarreDon said: The models have been hinting about GOM Low around the June 18th-19th time period for several runs now. Any thoughts on this? Trend in the models has been west with the low hitting somewhere around the Mexico/US border....the outlier is the CMC which has it hitting the TX/LA border but this is a significant shift west for it from yesterdays runs that had it hitting Fl panhandle..... This all assumes of course that something does actually form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Webber says watch the East-central Atlantic as well next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 The CMC is much faster with the evolution of the GOM low and thus has it getting picked up by the incoming trough and crossing the SE with biblical flood inducing rains over western SC/NC and north GA, it is the outlier however and the GFS/Euro are much slower with the low and allow the trough to bypass the low and then take it west into Mexico as the ridge builds in to the north behind the trough. So the CMC has the rem low all the way up in Maine and the others have it way deep in the GOM hitting Mexico at hr 240..... CMC rainfall total map....this would be bad its been very wet in these areas already and 8-12" in a hurry is just bad news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 On 6/13/2017 at 5:27 PM, downeastnc said: The CMC is much faster with the evolution of the GOM low and thus has it getting picked up by the incoming trough and crossing the SE with biblical flood inducing rains over western SC/NC and north GA, it is the outlier however and the GFS/Euro are much slower with the low and allow the trough to bypass the low and then take it west into Mexico as the ridge builds in to the north behind the trough. So the CMC has the rem low all the way up in Maine and the others have it way deep in the GOM hitting Mexico at hr 240..... CMC rainfall total map....this would be bad its been very wet in these areas already and 8-12" in a hurry is just bad news... That would be a very bad scenario for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 The GFS para caved to the CMC and now brings the low to the Big Bend, regular GFS kinda loses the whole thing but it does try to have a weak low in the eastern GOM like the CMC and GFS para....Euro still looks to be Mexico though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 1 hour ago, yotaman said: That would be a very bad scenario for the mountains. And anyone else in the path of that much rain. Not saying it it happens but things are looking better for this type of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 4 hours ago, LithiaWx said: And anyone else in the path of that much rain. Not saying it it happens but things are looking better for this type of solution. Yeah GFS para and CMC both have it just off the coast at 120 hrs...its starting to get out of lala land and into legit range on the models. Starting to think there is a pretty solid chance we get Bret out of this, and it impacts the SE directly..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 View 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and some additional development is possible during the next couple of days before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue moving toward the west at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers over most of Honduras and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the south-central Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 17, 2017 Author Share Posted June 17, 2017 NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 2h2 hours ago An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in the NW Caribbean Sea on Sunday afternoon. #93L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 JB riding the Euro model, fwiw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Where she goes is the question. 80% chance. Someone is getting a ton of rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: Where she goes is the question. 80% chance. Someone is getting a ton of rain out of this. Our local mets said even if this goes north to the gulf coast of Florida, we in the W Carolinas and N Ga would see 0 impacts, no rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Our local mets said even if this goes north to the gulf coast of Florida, we in the W Carolinas and N Ga would see 0 impacts, no rain! This pups going west or put it this way it will never get any closer to us than 50-100 miles off northern gulf coast. Read webber and he did a great job explaining how models will trend toward the euro on this one. Keep an eye on the invest in the Atlantic it looks more likely than not it's gonna make it to the carribean but who knows how strong or where it goes after that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 10 hours ago, NCSNOW said: This pups going west or put it this way it will never get any closer to us than 50-100 miles off northern gulf coast. Read webber and he did a great job explaining how models will trend toward the euro on this one. Keep an eye on the invest in the Atlantic it looks more likely than not it's gonna make it to the carribean but who knows how strong or where it goes after that point. Well in fact the euro last night took a big step toward the CMC/GFS camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Well in fact the euro last night took a big step toward the CMC/GFS camp. Yes! Definitely a Northerly and Easterly shift overnight! I need this thing to move N towards MS and FL and pull NE towards me! Being selfish, I still need a good bit of rain, despite most being wet around me. Get it while you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 JMO, but tropical forecasting skill out past a couple of days is pretty weak. Especially given here is no real center yet. Track and especially strength are hard to nail down in situations like this. Too many variables to make blanket statements at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yes! Definitely a Northerly and Easterly shift overnight! I need this thing to move N towards MS and FL and pull NE towards me! Being selfish, I still need a good bit of rain, despite most being wet around me. Get it while you can! I know somebody once told me seize the moment and don't squander it. Cause you never know when it could all be over tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 I don't know if I've ever seen this much rain from the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 7m7 minutes ago Today's aircraft mission into the system in the NW Caribbean has been cancelled. Another aircraft mission is scheduled for tomorrow #93L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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