TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 3k isn't any better. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Oh Nammy Boy, the weens the weens are calling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 3k isn't any better. Yikes 4k sucks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just now, rnaude241 said: 4k sucks as well Of course they're all on the same page when the solution is sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Anyone have any RPM reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 This is a tenuous setup and small variations aloft can make a huge difference, but that is an absurd shift at the surface on the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Game over man,game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Morch Madness said: This is a tenuous setup and small variations aloft can make a huge difference, but that is an absurd shift at the surface on the NAMs. The trend really started at 18z.. just was more pronounced this run. 12z was a hiccup run I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Congrats Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 rgem looks awful too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: rgem looks awful too. Ray was right... 12z was probably on overtrend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ray was right... 12z was probably on overtrend west Yup. I was never sold on more than mood flakes out here, but Im a little surprised it's close to whiffing for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ray was right... 12z was probably on overtrend west Be that as it may, I shouldn't have dismissed it so readily, regardless of how this turns out. Never felt this one, though. Beware the over trend of miller Bs, and relentless trend west of miller As. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: Game over man,game over Classic messenger shuffle...AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Poof, lol what the hell just happened. One of the more absurd 6 hr shifts. Does make my travel morning Sunday easy so no complaints but I do feel for the coastal EMA peeps,that was shaping up nicely. Hail Mary time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 GFS is worse as well. She gone.... euro should put the final nail in the coffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, correnjim1 said: Game over man,game over Classic.....Hudson RIP....same as this threat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 This threat never felt that compelling. Progressive trough, s*** streak, stale cold with weak rates in March. That said, 12z NAM+ 12z Euro + 12z RGEM jump NW is a hard trend to dismiss, especially for this time range. Ensembles were clustered NW of OP, and this was substantiated with realistic upstream changes at H5. Add to that the 18z RGEM had a suspicious looking piece of vorticity that drove the system too east. Disappointing while we're looking for the bookend to the season, or something interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 South of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 The developing upper low was stronger at 00z than initialization, especially the Euro. But the Euro was closer to handling the ridging ahead it, even though it was also not strong enough versus reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The developing upper low was stronger at 00z than initialization, especially the Euro. But the Euro was closer to handling the ridging ahead it, even though it was also not strong enough versus reality. So basically the shift in modeling away from any new England impacts is more than likely correct, and may not be done trending away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So basically the shift in modeling away from any new England impacts is more than likely correct, and may not be done trending away? Well I mention it more as a conflicting signal. Usually you would expect strong wave, weak ridge or weak wave, strong ridge and there could be some coherent suggestion what way it should trend. But strong wave, strong ridge, which prevails? 12z fuzzy clustering crapped the bed so I can't see the images, but the 00z last night suggest a weaker ridge led to more NW surface low solutions. So that would agree with the current 00z trend of slip sliding away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 There is forcing for banding farther west than what the NAM QPF shows, but we need to saturate the DGZ a little better than what it is forecasting otherwise enjoy the overcast. Congrats Nova Scotia though. Great banding signal up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just got home and looked at the 00Z suite after just seeing the 12Z suite earlier today, this went from a potential decent event to a complete whiff, major shift in the 00Z models. And Jerry: the RPM took a substantial jump east, 12-15Z runs had a snowstorm all the way back to the NY boarder and now the 00Z and more so 3Z runs completely whiff all of CT RI and MA save the cape and islands with a couple inches and even that is pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Euro = Whiff. Guess it's gonna be the latter in the thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 It is not as bad as I thought for Cape and Islands, should be a colder scenario playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 There's one in every crowd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Erin go snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Erin go snowless Approved, looks like a great weekend for adventuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Didn't even see the 00z guidance until now. What a head fake yesterday. There's been some pretty bad modeling inside of 48 hours this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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