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March 18/19 Storm? Will Winter 2016-17 End With a Bang or a Whimper?


HimoorWx

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Compare this 54hr 12z panel below to the 48hr 18z panel Will posted above... pretty sizable jump northwest, though way out of RGEM's best range

I_nw_EST_2017031712_054.thumb.png.748cf6263e1afddb7e146f7c19d1637d.png

That 54h panel is the GGEM....it defaults to GGEM after 48h.

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The whole thing is starting to look overwrought to me ... like the runs are over-producing QPF off of weaker mechanics.  

We should probably keep in mind, the whole 'QPF poor metric' thing works both ways.

This things got all of one closed isotach at 500 mb level... 546 dm with a starved baroclinic field under it.  

I just hope some thing like this can pinwheel over head under April sun so we can get some CG graupel-hailers.  Beautiful sky scapes result under shallow closed 500 mb surface instability days.  But it's razor's edge game ...just a little more mechanical power and this thing might have better jet restoring/response and there we go - tough call.  I could see it going either direction: over produced bust or a surprise. 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 54h panel is the GGEM....it defaults to GGEM after 48h.

My bad... I assumed that had changed with all the 72 hour URL-hacking RGEM posts... 

Apples to apples: the 18z RGEM 42 hr is further east compared to 12z RGEM 48 hr

But... there's a suspicious intense lobe of vorticity that is spawning a farther east surface low in almost a dual-low structure at 48hours on the 18z... take that away and the main vorticity associated with our low did appear to tick further west compared to 12z RGEM

 

 

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31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Theres been a clear trend of CT folk wrapping up snow in a gift box and handing it to our neighbors to the east. 

I have my kids this weekend and I want to take them on a day trip, possibly overnight Saturday or a Sunday day trip. NYC or BOS?

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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I have my kids this weekend and I want to take them on a day trip, possibly overnight Saturday or a Sunday day trip. NYC or BOS?

NYC-Manhatten in my opinion...nothing quite like NYC...it's called the greatest city in the world for a reason.    But that's just my opinion.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

NYC-Manhatten in my opinion...nothing quite like NYC...it's called the greatest city in the world for a reason.    But that's just my opinion.

Depends on how mamy times he and his kids have been there but for family kids time, I prefer Boston imo. For wife and me solo time, we go nyc. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

NYC-Manhatten in my opinion...nothing quite like NYC...it's called the greatest city in the world for a reason.    But that's just my opinion.

I hear ya. I was just there on business yesterday which made me decide I need to take them somewhere other than bumf**k Connecticut.

But I do feel like you have to stay in NYC more than a day.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Depends on how mamy times he and his kids have been there but for family kids time, I prefer Boston imo. For wife and me solo time, we go nyc. 

I've been to both a handful of times, but would be the kids' first time in either. 5 and 6

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