40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I'd like to get pope benedict in here to remind me once again of how inaccurate, biased and impulsive my forecasts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: Good for skiing, I'm looking forward to record cold skiing on Wednesday. I am looking forward to bluebird warm days Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday might be brutal lol but if the Sun is out its different than Jan. Hopefully Thurs and Friday are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Holy sh it didn't realize how cold it really has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have to give you that Ant, Scott did say that. Don't know about wasted month of cold either. Pretty happy with how it turned out. 2 March events here Giving me 12+. And the fact that it didnt melt away or wash away immediately after is a bonus. Not bad for Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: 2 March events here Giving me 12+. And the fact that it didnt melt away or wash away immediately after is a bonus. Not bad for Morch. Yeah AN climo snow and BN temps, seems only thing wasted are some posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yeah AN climo snow and BN temps, seems only thing wasted are some posters. Too many green Bud Light beers yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah AN climo snow and BN temps, seems only thing wasted are some posters. It is, at least locally. But overall, you have such a cold month with one storm and you are 4-6" above climo inland. Congrats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We've had some mild and dry springs lately. Time to flood. Heh... It would be an interesting feat if the atmosphere pulled off a climate flood event when the region is still 'saturated' in drought conditions (according to the U.S. DM) I know ...I know. Hydrology considers Short and Long termed desiccation differently - maybe we could jolt the landscape into a huge flood because of quick uptake? That would be a need trick. I wonder if that is possible? Rivers way over banks ...park benches and swing-sets inundated and street signs partially submerged that ironically read, 'No parking next 8' ...all the while, the L's at US DM have SNE painted with that Tholin shade of life they use to warn of impending arid death. Nice. ------ Spring is here in my humble opinion. In fact, for better or worse, for acceptance or not, winter acquiesced back during that warm week in late February ...and the last 'big storm' was more so spring snow storm. Yeah, we get those from time to time. It's tough to remember that 'spring' is a human conception ...if not conceit. There is no rule or temporal boundary that actually exists in Nature. Hell... recall the Halloween snow storm back in 2012? (Amazing that will be five years this next October - gives one pause). Some would argue that the virtue of spring that year began the week later. So, obviously there is some subjectivity to this passage (so don't be offended); just a symbolic reflection on matters. I remember mid stride through this last beastly bomb, despite roaring gust....the snow clumps set free from trees stopped disintegrating, and those curl-over drifts that hung down wind from eaves seemed vestigial of a different setting. At that moment, the air was still festooned by snow and lowered visibility - we just couldn't blow the snow. And, despite the raging it no longer actually felt cold. I stepped forward to sample some snow off the cap-rail of my porch railing and it was so rife with spring warmth that it collapsed into a snow ball almost at first touch. That was all roughly around the time we witness flicker of light and thought, "wait - was that..." answered closely by heavenly applause... It's no big signal to have a storm with those characteristics, no; they've happened before and will happen again any time between Halloween and Easter in years past and going forward. But, it was interesting to me that barely two days prior, a morning low of 9 F occurred here in my town, with a DP of -5 F. Yet, we couldn't keep the atmosphere here in the interior off of a blue snow event in NE wind with dynamics. Maybe it was just bad timing, but that air mass being moderated that quickly prior to the storm, combined with Feb's big warm-up ... and now, the models with this oscillatory pattern that is sans really deep cold going forward ... yeah, it's spring. Unfortunately, however ... this doesn't look like a clean break into warmth this year, not even close - unless there is a reality out there that divorces from the model's virtual presentation of what that reality will be. There is modeled cold air (enough so?) lingering across Canada, in an overall weird look/evolution (for me). We have a SE ridge/southern height positive bias (more centered in the SE ridge however). Yet, ...set/evolving over top is an undulating wave train ...replete with occasional closures, and pockets of cold and stressed baroclinic zones and so forth. It's a pattern equally rife with 'bowling ball' potential... Or, yet we could still time enough chill post a day near 70, to have another blue snow event with that look. Good luck trying to predict the advent of either of those extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is, at least locally. But overall, you have such a cold month with one storm and you are 4-6" above climo inland. Congrats? With 6 to 8 inches of concrete OTG March 18th, we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Interesting look also before the month ends. Be aware of a cold over performer especially PIKE North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Too many green Bud Light beers yesterday. Hey Garth went to the Sun for pro indoor lacrosse yesterday. Great time and action. I never had seen it live before. Excellent fight to end the first half. Definitely going back, 15 bucks for a ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd like to get pope benedict in here to remind me once again of how inaccurate, biased and impulsive my forecasts are. Not you, per se, Ray ... but, one of the natural tendencies by those that I suspect, quite literally experience Dopamine spikes by the mere presentation of modeling depictions *(which is thusly somewhat akin to drug addictive behavior btw) is that part of that is an 'eliding' that goes on in people, as they process the various information sources. Eliding ... the third preference essentially boils down to, 'selectively not considering variables so as to achieve a desired result.' Politicians do this regularly as a means to affect the masses and inspire moods/reactions along a desired course ... some more so than others - we'll leave it at that. But, I also find that a form of this phenomenon (...I guess we could call that a kind of 'cherry picking' in a way) happens, almost unconsciously, perpetually, as information enters the minds of those in this snow-cocaine business. I kind of mused about this the other day ... how memes get going that are cobbled out of some proportion reality and fiction, and then .. folks buy into those meme, because they are also prone to the same phenomenon of eliding. Next thing we know, there is a kind of collective opinion that is forged, that is some percentage less than likely or even real. Sometimes the percentage is very small and negligible... other times, like, ..when spring is ending and no one in the bastion of contributors that can stand summer (to the point of abasing topics even centered on summer at that), their desperation ratchets up the phenomenon. I'm not holier than thou in all that; not even close. I'm sure I've contributed to doing that myself at some point or the other. However, I did try to cast doubt on the idea for this next system, based on some Met observations about the synoptic evolution. I noticed a definite lack of replies to those off-set arguments. That is eliding... Then, folks end up in a situation where they are ill-prepared when things fall apart because there really is a collective delusion that is shattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 The thing is, this storm will whiff the cape. I don't think anyone expected the RPM, but I doubt people expected a Cape whiff. Pretty impressive model change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The thing is, this storm will whiff the cape. I don't think anyone expected the RPM, but I doubt people expected a Cape whiff. Pretty impressive model change. Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The thing is, this storm will whiff the cape. I don't think anyone expected the RPM, but I doubt people expected a Cape whiff. Pretty impressive model change. I do t think anyone can lay claim to forecasting a whiff for pretty much everyone. I thought it would be a minor, yet enjoyable, event for a bunch of SE posters (Ginxland, to TAN, to your area, to CC...I expected flurries to an inch here This was def a Lucy shift. Ah well. Nice weekend enroute. Maybe I will play at the mountain this evening for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The thing is, this storm will whiff the cape. I don't think anyone expected the RPM, but I doubt people expected a Cape whiff. Pretty impressive model change. Models were awful once again this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not you, per se, Ray ... but, one of the natural tendencies by those that I suspect, quite literally experience Dopamine spikes by the mere presentation of modeling depictions *(which is thusly somewhat akin to drug addictive behavior btw) is that part of that is an 'eliding' that goes on in people, as they process the various information sources. Eliding ... the third preference essentially boils down to, 'selectively not considering variables so as to achieve a desired result.' Politicians do this regularly as a means to affect the masses and inspire moods/reactions along a desired course ... some more so than others - we'll leave it at that. But, I also find that a form of this phenomenon (...I guess we could call that a kind of 'cherry picking' in a way) happens, almost unconsciously, perpetually, as information enters the minds of those in this snow-cocaine business. I kind of mused about this the other day ... how memes get going that are cobbled out of some proportion reality and fiction, and then .. folks buy into those meme, because they are also prone to the same phenomenon of eliding. Next thing we know, there is a kind of collective opinion that is forged, that is some percentage less than likely or even real. Sometimes the percentage is very small and negligible... other times, like, ..when spring is ending and no one in the bastion of contributors that can stand summer (to the point of abasing topics even centered on summer at that), their desperation ratchets up the phenomenon. I'm not holier than thou in all that; not even close. I'm sure I've contributed to doing that myself at some point or the other. However, I did try to cast doubt on the idea for this next system, based on some Met observations about the synoptic evolution. I noticed a definite lack of replies to those off-set arguments. That is eliding... Then, folks end up in a situation where they are ill-prepared when things fall apart because there really is a collective delusion that is shattered. I'm with you...I was never big on this threat, and figured models would do the east shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I do t think anyone can lay claim to forecasting a whiff for pretty much everyone. I thought it would be a minor, yet enjoyable, event for a bunch of SE posters (Ginxland, to TAN, to your area, to CC...I expected flurries to an inch here This was def a Lucy shift. Ah well. Nice weekend enroute. Maybe I will play at the mountain this evening for a bit Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: With 6 to 8 inches of concrete OTG March 18th, we take The snowpack is do thick and dense its incredible. Last night when i get home i could walk on top of the snowpack without falling through without a problem, in fact the only way i could crack it was to jump up and down heavily on it. Really hasnt melted much at all the past 5 days, which is really amazing for mid-march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 So are we tossing the RGEM? Still brings plowable snow down here and on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I think it was wasted cold. We could all argue and disagree because my feeling is mine and yours is yours. But as cold as it has been, I need some serious snow-well above what I received this eek. My glacier has been most annoying with plenty of ice I've had to avoid and my walking about is far more difficult. It can't melt soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm with you...I was never big on this threat, and figured models would do the east shuffle. Your FB post surprised me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think it was wasted cold. We could all argue and disagree because my feeling is mine and yours is yours. But as cold as it has been, I need some serious snow-well above what I received this eek. My glacier has been most annoying with plenty of ice I've had to avoid and my walking about is far more difficult. It can't melt soon enough. Kids are skating on the kettle pond down the street, unreal for post St Patty's day. Pretty awesome to see a midwinter scene in the entire NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kids are skating on the kettle pond down the street, unreal for post St Patty's day. Pretty awesome to see a midwinter scene in the entire NE Kids will always find fun to do. I'm talking entirely for myself. I would much rather warm wx but alas-2012 it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I am looking forward to bluebird warm days Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday might be brutal lol but if the Sun is out its different than Jan. Hopefully Thurs and Friday are better. I can't ski slush anymore, so this cold is helping extend the season for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 12z rgem still gives some snow to SE Mass and the cape.... likes like 1-3" for TAN SE to the canal.... more on the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I can't ski slush anymore, so this cold is helping extend the season for me. Corn Monday Tuesday to midwinter Wednesday some freshies Tuesday night,we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 For those who were begging for blocking, thanks. Suppression depression on this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 3 hours ago, weathafella said: I think it was wasted cold. We could all argue and disagree because my feeling is mine and yours is yours. But as cold as it has been, I need some serious snow-well above what I received this eek. My glacier has been most annoying with plenty of ice I've had to avoid and my walking about is far more difficult. It can't melt soon enough. If you lived west..you wouldn't be feeling that way. Way better out this way..we got a great dose from mother nature, and we put the cold to good use over here!! Best sustained winter period of the entire Winter hands down. We couldn't get any cold to stay and hold...never mind snow to stay, but the last 8 to 10 days have been great. And it came in March no less...impressive end to astronomical winter for this area. Though Out east..I get your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Haven't paid any attention to anything after our sleet storm last week. Just checked the NAM and GFS for tonight/tomorrow morning. Seems to get a littler Norlun action in here for N VA / DC. Flakes in the air at least. Enjoying the sun and 60F now. 70s return by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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