oldlogin Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Public Information Statement 17-07 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 1200 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees From: John Derber Acting Mesoscale Modeling Branch Chief NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Subject: Soliciting Public Comments on the Removal of GFDL Hurricane Model Products and Addition of New HMON Hurricane Model Products through March 17, 2017 The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is proposing to retire the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Model (GHM) and replace it with a new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)-based hurricane model called HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic) in NCEP operations. The NWS is seeking comments on these proposed changes through March 17, 2017. The primary reasons for retiring the legacy GFDL Hurricane Model are based on: 1. The Environmental Modeling Center's (EMC) efforts towards unification of operational models within the NEMS framework. 2. NHC's evaluation and endorsement of the new hurricane model (HMON) through evaluation of three-year (2014-2016) retrospective experiments run by EMC. HMON model consistently showed improved performance for track and intensity skill for the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Basins as compared to the legacy GFDL hurricane model. 3. Retirement of key personnel at GFDL leading to a loss of support for maintaining the GFDL Hurricane model in operations. The timing of the proposed changes will be as follows: 1. The GHM will be discontinued on the date of the GFS2017 upgrade sometime in May 2017. Please reference the GFS SCN once it is disseminated for the exact date. At that time, all GHM products found on: - NCEP servers under hur.YYYYMMDD will be discontinued: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/hur/prod Where YYYYMMDD is year, month and day - Model Analyses and Guidance will be discontinued: mag.ncep.noaa.gov 2. With the hurricane model upgrades slated for early June 2017, NCEP will start delivering the new operational model, HMON, on the NCEP servers. Please reference that SCN once it is disseminated for product details and the exact date. NWS will evaluate all comments to determine whether to proceed with this change. Send comments on this proposal to: Avichal Mehra Lead, Physical Scientist NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center College Park, MD [email protected] Or Carissa Klemmer NWS/NCEP Central Operations Dataflow Team Lead College Park, MD [email protected] National Public Information Statements are online at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 regarding GFS upgrade & NHC's displeasure for Atlantic forecasting: http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#K3XptrNy6mq9 " In short, their argument is that no upgrade is better than a bad upgrade, and that if the upgrade goes forward as planned, forecasts will suffer. This could put millions of coastal residents in the path of a hurricane at risk, depending on the forecast error. " Testing and evaluation of the GFS 2017 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS2017.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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