weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I live in Bergen County. I think your timing is a bit off, among other things. Your beloved NAM shows most areas wasting a lot as rain. See the next frames..nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Yanks according to nam we switch over to moderate to heavy snow Sunday night midnight... Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Yanks according to nam we switch over to moderate to heavy snow Sunday night midnight... Change occurs at around 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Bickering posts are being deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Change occurs at around 8pm Yes I think once the sun goes down tomorrow night we switch to snow and accumulate all night. Honestly I'm beginning to think we could get a nice advisory snowstorm here, 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 I see it, I just don't believe it. What a weenie run. Develops the mid-level centers in the perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 10 miles could be the difference between 6-10" of snow and barely a quarter of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 NAM really wants to clock areas from the city east around midnight with the inverted trough again. A little bit at the start would be wasted as rain but it will go over to snow if precip intensity improves and after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: NAM really wants to clock areas from the city east around midnight with the inverted trough again. A little bit at the start would be wasted as rain but it will go over to snow if precip intensity improves and after dark. Para nam also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Author Share Posted March 17, 2017 Hopefully the NAM is on a hot streak...over 1" QPF for NE NJ, NYC, LI , and bullseye of 1.5" QPF for NYC. All falls at night as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Over a foot lol Its possible if that trough just sits on your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Morris said: 12km NAM is on crack Regular nam also has alot of snow Look what happened when people doubted the Nam with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 All NAM's are a good hit...along with the Norlun in the general same area. Let's see if this can be some consistency into tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 It's an extremely fragile setup. You can't get excited for an inverted trough band until it's practically forming on you. My hope is for some light to moderate accumulating snow overnight that gives me a couple inch refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 That could so easily shift between now and tomorrow night although the QPF is quite widespread so we'll probably get a couple of inches regardless of where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It generates some pretty impressive instability parameters on its soundings. Those midlevel lapse rates look like something you see with a summer EML. Wow, that'll be nice for someone if it gets set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Imagine if this gives us more than the blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 WWA for west of city issued, nothing for NYC Eastward..yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 What happened with the euro? Haven't heard a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: What happened with the euro? Haven't heard a thing. The data is coming in late according to the ECMWF office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Imagine if this gives us more than the blizzard lol What's the accumulations for Central Park? Any of the Nams give them more than 9 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 5 hours ago, Morris said: Maps aren't allowed in this thread. A total precip map should suffice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 My hunch is the IVT will set up slightly northeast of the NAM on a line from central to eastern Suffolk WNW into SW CT near HPN and into Rockland near the Tappan zee. I think NYC metro will be on the southwest edge of this. This is just via combining a bunch of the models and upper level stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Could be like a LES streamer that gets stuck in place and just dumps away with a sharp fall off away from the prime axis. I doubt its that truncated though, a streamer typically is 3-5 miles at its heart, but I get your point. I think this is a situation that should start to sort itself out a this time tomorrow, a few hours before the event, with the more reliable Meso models. As long as the NAM keeps honking till then. It certainlt has had impressive consistency for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 THe RGEM has basically nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: THe RGEM has basically nothing Had heaviest precip down in Monmouth but too warm for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: THe RGEM has basically nothing Yeah that's was interesting..doesn't develop anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 All of the NAM's highest totals are in the NYC metro with little in southern New England. RGEM's highest totals are in eastern southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: yep That does not appear to be true any more (that this will end by 11z or 12z Sunday). Significance is NYC Half Marathon Sunday morning. 7:30 gun time. 20k runners. Has an elite field. Seems they may have a very tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, hooralph said: That does not appear to be true any more (that this will end by 11z or 12z Sunday). Significance is NYC Half Marathon Sunday morning. 7:30 gun time. 20k runners. Has an elite field. Seems they may have a very tough call. They would cancel for wet roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 GFS shows a general 3-6 inches for the city and east. Euro came out now anyone with paid maps care to tell us what it showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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