husky0101 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 From Upton: Interesting Norlun Trough event as closed upper low dives out of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday - some 21Z SREF Members in excess of 6" (8 or 26 for eastern Long Island and 5 of 26 in the City). 00Z NAM is rather impressive - perhaps this is Long Island`s turn? Winds in SREF have potential for 40 KT with heavy snow...hummm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Extended RGEM maps out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Extended RGEM maps out yet? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 We had a Norlun in early February 2009 that dropped 3.5" I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 0z gfs is decent for a few inches of snow in spots. nice qpf max in nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 35 minutes ago, husky0101 said: From Upton: Interesting Norlun Trough event as closed upper low dives out of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday - some 21Z SREF Members in excess of 6" (8 or 26 for eastern Long Island and 5 of 26 in the City). 00Z NAM is rather impressive - perhaps this is Long Island`s turn? Winds in SREF have potential for 40 KT with heavy snow...hummm. What a bunch of weenies they are at that office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: What a bunch of weenies they are at that office. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Cmc on board with 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, husky0101 said: From Upton: Interesting Norlun Trough event as closed upper low dives out of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday - some 21Z SREF Members in excess of 6" (8 or 26 for eastern Long Island and 5 of 26 in the City). 00Z NAM is rather impressive - perhaps this is Long Island`s turn? Winds in SREF have potential for 40 KT with heavy snow...hummm. They discounted the NAM on Monday night and that didn't work out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 6Z gfs has 4-6 for NYC with 6+ for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Assuming the euro showed little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Assuming the euro showed little? Correct. RGEM cut back and the rest held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Morris said: Correct. RGEM cut back and the rest held serve. Thanks - to me, anything over a 2" would be a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 29 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Thanks - to me, anything over a 2" would be a win! Wasn't expecting much from this anyway. Still they are calling for an inch on local forecasts, with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Wasn't expecting much from this anyway. Still they are calling for an inch on local forecasts, with rain. Norluns are tricky. They can overperfom or underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 49 minutes ago, Morris said: Correct. RGEM cut back and the rest held serve. That wild 4knam run from yesterday is reduced also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Mt Holly nws is 1 to 3 in the zones that touch Upton zones. not drinking the same water on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 By the way folks remember the Euro ensembles and the 99.9% chance of a foot for the Tuesday "blizzard" ? Guess what I found in my FB memories today? Same forecast for same time period last year!! March 17 4:06p: At least 35 members in the European Ensemble calling for an all-out blizzard with more than a foot in New York City for Sunday #NYwx" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, Animal said: Mt Holly nws is 1 to 3 in the zones that touch Upton zones. not drinking the same water on this event. That might not actually be a bad forecast because the way it looks is that line may be the cutoff between those amounts. It appears as though the further NE you head the greater the chance of any significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: That might not actually be a bad forecast because the way it looks is that line may be the cutoff between those amounts. It appears as though the further NE you head the greater the chance of any significant accumulations. Agreed. I send out winter weather notes to coworkers, friends and family (and FB) and I made that exact comment, reading between the lines... "Confidence in this forecast is pretty low, as these kinds of inverted troughs, associated with redeveloping clippers off the coast, are notoriously difficult to pinpoint. There will likely be 2-4" of snow from the system somewhere, but exactly where is the question and that's mostly likely north of 78 and east of the Parkway, which is likely why the NWS-NYC is predicting a bit more snow, as per the maps below." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: 0z guidance was focusing in more on Eastern LI/SE NENG. I agree. I suspect that the best chance for an appreciable or greater snowfall will probably exist in an area running from eastern Suffolk County into eastern New England. Climatology favors that region for Norlun troughs and at least some of the guidance has begun to focus on that area. A light accumulation remains possible in and around NYC and its nearby suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. I suspect that the best chance for an appreciable or greater snowfall will probably exist in an area running from eastern Suffolk County into eastern New England. Climatology favors that region for Norlun troughs and at least some of the guidance has begun to focus on that area. A light accumulation remains possible in and around NYC and its nearby suburbs. Don, the other thing is, with these very marginal temps and thickness, 10:1 ratios are too high, it's late March now. Ratios will be 5:1 or 6:1. The UVVs also won't be that strong with this thing, wherever the trough does set up. The snowmaps with 10:1 ratios are not going to be reality for this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Norluns are tricky. They can overperfom or underperform. Think we got one in March 2013, about 5 inches or so. Almost gone by the next day! At least we got some wintry feel out of the last week hard adjusting to this cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Don, the other thing is, with these very marginal temps and thickness, 10:1 ratios are too high, it's late March now. Ratios will be 5:1 or 6:1. The UVVs also won't be that strong with this thing, wherever the trough does set up. The snowmaps with 10:1 ratios are not going to be reality for this thing It's not that marginal, 850s are like -5C and dewpoints are low. That being said, the 2-4" for NYC and 4-6" for White Plains may not verify if everything is shunted east. NWS seems aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, nzucker said: It's not that marginal, 850s are like -5C and dewpoints are low. That being said, the 2-4" for NYC and 4-6" for White Plains may not verify if everything is shunted east. NWS seems aggressive. 12z should make it or break it in my book. If it keeps trending east I think there's little that happens west of Islip-the Euro still going with little and the RGEM cutting back are red flags to me. But the pieces can still fall the right way and make this a nice event, it just has to be less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 This is what I was speaking about yesterday in terms of the snow threat gradually shifting East as we moved closer. We could still get some snow as the trough dives down but once the transfer occurs it will put just about everyone out of play except for Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, nzucker said: It's not that marginal, 850s are like -5C and dewpoints are low. That being said, the 2-4" for NYC and 4-6" for White Plains may not verify if everything is shunted east. NWS seems aggressive. I agree. NWS way too aggressive north and west of the city. That 4-6 should be more like 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: ...maybe a little pay back from the rain fest we had on tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 ...maybe a little pay back from the rain fest we had on tuesday.Lol now you sound like okx Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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