Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Unlike a normal IVT scenario where it is all or nothing. this seems to actually have a pretty wide area that gets at least .35-.5 QPF. I believe a lot of that falls Friday night and Saturday as rain or non accumulating snow. If we're going to get a few inches it will be from whatever comes Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I believe a lot of that falls Friday night and Saturday as rain or non accumulating snow. If we're going to get a few inches it will be from whatever comes Saturday night Agreed, the precip that can translate into accum snow would be Saturday afternoon and night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I believe a lot of that falls Friday night and Saturday as rain or non accumulating snow. If we're going to get a few inches it will be from whatever comes Saturday night GFS is majority from 18Z Saturday-12Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I believe a lot of that falls Friday night and Saturday as rain or non accumulating snow. If we're going to get a few inches it will be from whatever comes Saturday night correct. Iffy temps on this one on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Anyone want to post the RGEM panels kindly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I'm taking the train from DC up to NYC tomorrow for the weekend, so I'm paying closer attention to your area than my area at the moment. Interesting to see how this plays out/whether the track & development allows a narrow band of focused precip to track over any part of the city. Just looking at the latest, through 12z Sunday morning, both the 12z RGEM (as shown in the Meteogram that stretches out 84 hours unlike the maps that only extend 48 hours) and 12z GFS have about 0.75" qpf at Central Park, while the 12z NAM was a little more in line with the 00z Euro at about 0.45" qpf. FWIW, the 00z Ukie also had about 0.4" qpf, though that's only up to 00z Sunday (8 pm Saturday). Whatever falls looks to be a rain/snow/mix situation during daylight hours on Saturday as opposed to any sleet/freezing rain given the column is projected to be below freezing until perhaps just the lowest approximately 2k feet, though eventually the surface does cool back to near or below freezing after sunset as the surface flow takes on a slightly more northerly component and hence there is perhaps less oceanic influence. Not particularly familiar with the city's history of snow "success" with these types of patterns/weather systems, but it's nice to have a little something to track given our meager winter snow situation in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, Morris said: Anyone want to post the RGEM panels kindly? no panels past 48 hrs...there's a meteogram or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 25 minutes ago, nycwinter said: queens which is part of nyc and nassau county which is part of long island share a border.... What's your point Chief? For the record I think you have to be East of the Northern State/LIE junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Morris said: Anyone want to post the RGEM panels kindly? Here are the RGEM meteograms, the first shows the surface temp & 850 temps (850 looks fine and surface trends down to freezing by around 00z) http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/meteogram.php?stn=NewYork&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=std&lang=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, ohwxguy said: Here are the RGEM meteograms, the first shows the surface temp & 850 temps (850 looks fine and surface trends down to freezing by around 00z) http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/meteogram.php?stn=NewYork&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=std&lang=en&map=us Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, ohwxguy said: Here are the RGEM meteograms, the first shows the surface temp & 850 temps (850 looks fine and surface trends down to freezing by around 00z) http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/meteogram.php?stn=NewYork&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=std&lang=en&map=us These are great. Shows how this starts as some rain in the afternoon and transitions to Snow in the evening/night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 The RGEM is 0.8"...snow...wow, touch of rain to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: The RGEM is 0.8"...snow...wow, touch of rain to start Let's hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: no panels past 48 hrs...there's a meteogram or something like that. I'm deducting a couple of your weenie points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I'm deducting a couple of your weenie points. I have only seen these go out to 48 hours on meteocentre.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: Beauty Snow precip through 72 hours. Warning criteria in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Anything on the UKIE and GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Anything on the UKIE? 7.5-15MM. JP area is the city and immediate surrounding areas, but unclear how much of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Starting to look more like a legitimate coastal transfer instead of a Norlun, which would be better for temps as winds lock in northerly. The H5 vort is digging deeper, allowing the system to develop further south. I like the North Shore of LI and SW CT/eastern Westchester for this one. Could see 3-6" there easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: EURO? No appreciable precip. The inverted trough never really materializes, and the coastal low takes shape way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: I'm not sure, got it from Bernie Rayo's twitter...but suffice it to say, that upper low pattern looks good for the area. Upon further inspection, that appears to be the NAM (12 km version). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Anything on the UKIE and GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 18z NAM still has 3 inches for the city, but jackpots LI with 9 inches in parts. Much more coverage of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Nams between .4-.5 for most with the exception of eastern Long Island, 850s look cold but 2mt are marginal, a general 2-4" with higher amounts of 4-7" on eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Morris said: 18z NAM still has 3 inches for the city, but jackpots LI with 9 inches in parts. Much more coverage of snow as well. Para nam has close to 1 inch of qpf for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para nam has close to 1 inch of qpf for the area Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the para Nam actually the new operational Nam now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para nam has close to 1 inch of qpf for the area It was a weenie run for sure. If you look at the snowfall map it has most of the heavier accumulations confined to the hillier NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It was a weenie run for sure. If you look at the snowfall map it has most of the heavier accumulations confined to the hillier NW areas. Regardless of if the placement is right or wrong, when you start to see things like that popping up on the snowfall maps (as much I as I dislike them) it is a tell that this will be elevation and latitude driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the para Nam actually the new operational Nam now? Good question... I know a lot of people confuse the nam parallel with the 3k Nam...the 3k I believe is a WRF model, the para is still 12k and NCEP like the op if I'm wrong on this let me know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Good question... I know a lot of people confuse the nam parallel with the 3k Nam...the 3k I believe is a WRF model, the para is still 12k and NCEP like the op if I'm wrong on this let me know The para becomes the operational on 3/21/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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