Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 22 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Norlun..... Not really. By definition, Norlun troughs require strong low-level instability capable of supporting convective squalls. I'll attach a map which shows the inverted trough wind shift very clearly, but no instability to speak of - you'd want lapse rates to be near dry adiabatic in an ideal Norlun situation. In other words, every Norlun event is an inverted trough, but not every inverted trough is a Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Not really. By definition, Norlun troughs require strong low-level instability capable of supporting convective squalls. I'll attach a map which shows the inverted trough wind shift very clearly, but no instability to speak of - you'd want lapse rates to be near dry adiabatic in an ideal Norlun situation. In other words, every Norlun event is an inverted trough, but not every inverted trough is a Norlun. Hence why they are rare. I know when they occur to perfection they could be spectecular. I vaguely remember one in Portaln ME, that gave them 14 inches in 4 hours ( saw video where snow was coming down in 1 solid sheet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the inverted trough (if one forms) it is going to hit New England, as they always do. How many times have they been predicted here and it turned into total futility. I'm making the call right now and Morris can throw it in my face if I'm wrong, but over the next 2 days the models will shift the norlun will shift into eastern New England and this "event" will turn into a non event down here Saturday. Little to no accumulation this weekend. Boundary layer temps too warm, crappy thicknesses, weak isentropic/overrunning, late March. This will be the next bust for the area It's hard to bust in the negative direction with this one when almost nothing is currently expected. You might be right that no snow materializes this weekend, but a great way to get snow in Mid-March is to have low geopotential heights cross overhead. That can help with the warm boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: This is how infrequent it is around NYC. last time was 6 years ago ( and Im not even sure how it turned) 3-6 inches were forcast... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/narrow-heavy-snow-band-to-targ/44005 Thanks! This is the one I was thinking of! I remember TWC playing it up and it didn't materialize here. Anyway, I'm ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 NAM going berserk with the inverted trough over NYC and LI. We'd have to battle warm air on east winds for a while but that would be a thumping for sure later on. These are too fickle to lock in but the 500mb pattern is doing what we need to-dig the low underneath us and allow moisture to back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the inverted trough (if one forms) it is going to hit New England, as they always do. How many times have they been predicted here and it turned into total futility. I'm making the call right now and Morris can throw it in my face if I'm wrong, but over the next 2 days the models will shift the norlun will shift into eastern New England and this "event" will turn into a non event down here Saturday. Little to no accumulation this weekend. Boundary layer temps too warm, crappy thicknesses, weak isentropic/overrunning, late March. This will be the next bust for the area Just from past performance, this is probably what will happen. We had about a foot or so of snow and sleet on Tuesday and it was more difficult to move than last year's 2'+, so I'm ready for Spring and to work on the yard. (Plus, we have plans Saturday evening!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Someone along the coast will jackpot with this. Anywhere from SNJ to Long Island/SNE. No way to know until inside of 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 New NAM, wow for NYC/N NJ and especially long island....lots of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: New NAM, wow for NYC/N NJ and especially long island....lots of QPF A closer up look. This will obviously change, but clearly lots of potential somewhere in a 100-200 mile radius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the inverted trough (if one forms) it is going to hit New England, as they always do. How many times have they been predicted here and it turned into total futility. I'm making the call right now and Morris can throw it in my face if I'm wrong, but over the next 2 days the models will shift the norlun will shift into eastern New England and this "event" will turn into a non event down here Saturday. Little to no accumulation this weekend. Boundary layer temps too warm, crappy thicknesses, weak isentropic/overrunning, late March. This will be the next bust for the area I have no problem when you use solid reasoning. You might end up wrong, but it's a good argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 This will be nearly impossible to lock down until right up to the event. Hopefully we all can add some to our yearly snow totals, that's about all we should be hoping for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, North and West of Town said: Just from past performance, this is probably what will happen. We had about a foot or so of snow and sleet on Tuesday and it was more difficult to move than last year's 2'+, so I'm ready for Spring and to work on the yard. (Plus, we have plans Saturday evening!) Philly got hit with a trough a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Philly got hit with a trough a few years ago. Did it? Do you know which event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, mikem81 said: A closer up look. This will obviously change, but clearly lots of potential somewhere in a 100-200 mile radius Ummm. Portions of Queens and western LI. Have the qpf triple from one run to another on the NAM . At the very least this help to distract one from this appointment in the blizzard that wasn't ( and yes I don't consider four inches of snow plus 3 inches of sleet a blizzard but a sleezard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the inverted trough (if one forms) it is going to hit New England, as they always do. How many times have they been predicted here and it turned into total futility. I'm making the call right now and Morris can throw it in my face if I'm wrong, but over the next 2 days the models will shift the norlun will shift into eastern New England and this "event" will turn into a non event down here Saturday. Little to no accumulation this weekend. Boundary layer temps too warm, crappy thicknesses, weak isentropic/overrunning, late March. This will be the next bust for the area This one has a chance here because of the pattern ultimately forcing the storm south. What may still occur though is that the trof doesn't develop early and doesn't form til the system is ultimately east of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Everything has been trending west this season so let's hope for that earlier transfer and boom we can get a warning snow even in NYC. I noticed that norlun setups happen mostly in late winter march so we have our chances. I don't know what snowman19 is saying, I get norluns favor the New England but he's been so wrong this year that he should just give it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, North and West of Town said: Did it? Do you know which event? I think it was 2013, they had a narrow stripe of 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Rgem looks nice based off meteograms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 GFS looks decent and a bit colder so far up to 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I doubt anyone outside of E LI and far SE SNL gets much out of this. The general rule of thumb with these types of events are that the models are usually too far Southwest until the last minute. I would expect things to continue shifting East throughout the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I doubt anyone outside of E LI and far SE SNL gets much out of this. The general rule of thumb with these types of events are that the models are usually too far Southwest until the last minute. I would expect things to continue shifting East throughout the next day. Agreed. This favors LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Gfs is a pretty big hit for 78 north and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, snow1 said: Agreed. This favors LI. I think NYC might even be too far Southwest based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs is a pretty big hit for 78 north and LI I guess it kind of makes sense given the positioning of the 700mb low over SNJ, but we'll have to see if that trends further North over the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Looks like the coastal gets going a little to late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I think NYC might even be too far Southwest based on climo. queens which is part of nyc and nassau county which is part of long island share a border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: queens which is part of nyc and nassau county which is part of long island share a border.... Technically Long Island extends to the East River so Queens/BK is Long Island. Regardless of geographic definitions, this setup is complicated to forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think NYC might even be too far Southwest based on climo. If it's an IVT setup, I agree-those often, but not always end up further N and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 Looks like consensus building on an accum snow for the metro, NAM/GFS/RGEM all in pretty good agreement on temps/timing/QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If it's an IVT setup, I agree-those often, but not always end up further N and E Unlike a normal IVT scenario where it is all or nothing. this seems to actually have a pretty wide area that gets at least .35-.5 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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