sferic Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: It showed 9 inches on the 18z run while the 0z run basically showed a car topper like animal said. OK then Quinn should not have said brand new run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: OK then Quinn should not have said brand new run He is terrible. You're much better off watching Lee Goldberg on channel 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, sferic said: OK then Quinn should not have said brand new run You should never listen to Lonnie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Jackpots Baltimore... Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, Animal said: Shocked....1-3 nw car topper city Nice refresher for the deep snow pack that exist. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: You should never listen to Lonnie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: You should never listen to Lonnie So what's the consensus now? The NAM was last one showing big snows right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: So what's the consensus now? The NAM was last one showing big snows right? Lets see what the rest of the 0Z suite shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Upton's updated HWO somewhat underplaying the event for tomorrow http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ070&warncounty=NYC119&firewxzone=NYZ070&local_place1=Pleasantville NY&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=41.1493&lon=-73.7882 hugging the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 The nam is a bit lost. 3km and 4km both redevelop the low several times, several hundred miles apart up and down the east coast from 36-48 hours. 12km and 32km both want to take the low east. We'll see. I'm not ready to give up on this storm, though I'm not excited either. That being said, the upper levels don't look all that different and actually look more favorable for snow. - compared to previous runs - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Upton's updated HWO somewhat underplaying the event for tomorrow http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ070&warncounty=NYC119&firewxzone=NYZ070&local_place1=Pleasantville NY&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=41.1493&lon=-73.7882 hugging the nam? No, Not specifically the NAM it just came out that was at 5:30 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Let's see what the GFS says shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: Let's see what the GFS says shortly At this point **** the gfs. Look at mesoscale models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Again, we won't know what's happening with this until it's happening overhead. Could be a coating, several inches or more if a band really does form. The fact that this inverted trough band is only really showing up on some NAM runs makes me suspicious but we'll see. I guess odds are this is a disorganized late developer mess until it comes around to nail eastern Mass and pad Boston's totals another 6" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Again, we won't know what's happening with this until it's happening overhead. Could be a coating, several inches or more if a band really does form. The fact that this inverted trough band is only really showing up on some NAM runs makes me suspicious but we'll see. I guess odds are this is a disorganized late developer mess until it comes around to nail eastern Mass and pad Boston's totals another 6" or so. As is almost always the case. Their location is just perfect. Usually plenty cold enough and plenty of ocean SW of them to give storms ample time to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 00z RGEM is very disorganized too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I know there is the rest of 00z to go but it might be time to toss this one. The only models that got anything close to right for the blizzard are both showing a disorganized mess and those are the only ones I trust. It's clear where this is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: I know there is the rest of 00z to go but it might be time to toss this one. The only models that got anything close to right for the blizzard are both showing a disorganized mess and those are the only ones I trust. It's clear where this is going Just like this one went South tonight it could come back equally organized tomorrow night at the same time right before the event itself. They could still go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 39 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: 00z RGEM is very disorganized too Gfs is a train wreck too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Well the Pacific Northwest kicker was sampled for this suite. May be why. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 00z CMC the same..all bad trends tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I know it's a different setup but the NAM did do quite the flip flop though from 18z. It was completely steadfast for the blizzard and now does this. At least it caught on when it did. I guess it was that piece being sampled better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Pretty confident in calling this one done. Maybe there'll be a surprise but unanimously so far for 0z the nail's being hammered in. Too progressive, it's March, and little organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Add the 0z UKMET to the list of nothing, nada for tomorrow. Every 0z run (NAM, RGEM, GFS, CMC, UKMET) went to a non event so far, the Euro is the only one left tonight and its had a non event every run since last night. I think the red flag was when the SREF went really dry earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Add the 0z UKMET to the list of nothing, nada for tomorrow. Every 0z run (NAM, RGEM, GFS, CMC, UKMET) went to a non event so far, the Euro is the only one left tonight and its had a non event every run since last night. I think the red flag was when the SREF went really dry earlier today The 0z Euro is a complete miss again, nothing for the 3rd run in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The 0z Euro is a complete miss again, nothing for the 3rd run in a row But the NAM has been so consistent until tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: But the NAM has been so consistent until tonight! 6z is consistent with the 0z run. 1-3 nw& car topper city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Wow, everybody gave up. I can see why, though, lol. The 6Z runs continue to show little to no snow south of 78 and at most 1-2" north of there, and probably only at higher elevations. Very surprised the NWS-Philly maintained the advisories for Sussex/Warren/Morris and the Poconos/Lehigh Valley for 3-6" above 1000' and 1-3" in the valleys. They did cut snowfall amounts elsewhere, however, as per the map. And even these amounts are generous vs. what the models show. I think they're hedging their bets a bit in case the storm over-delivers, which is always still possible, but not likely - I could easily see little to no accumulation anywhere south of I-80, except at higher elevations in NJ/PA. We'll see. In case anyone cares, here are the maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Wow, everybody gave up. I can see why, though, lol. The 6Z runs continue to show little to no snow south of 78 and at most 1-2" north of there, and probably only at higher elevations. Very surprised the NWS-Philly maintained the advisories for Sussex/Warren/Morris and the Poconos/Lehigh Valley for 3-6" above 1000' and 1-3" in the valleys. They did cut snowfall amounts elsewhere, however, as per the map. And even these amounts are generous vs. what the models show. I think they're hedging their bets a bit in case the storm over-delivers, which is always still possible, but not likely - I could easily see little to no accumulation anywhere south of I-80, except at higher elevations in NJ/PA. We'll see. In case anyone cares, here are the maps.. Yea the 6z runs (NAM, RGEM, GFS) still have nothing, just like last night. In fact, 1-2 inches may be too generous. The snowfall map I just saw from the 6z NAM from wxbell has zero accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 It's amazing how the models can't get a forecast right 1 day before the event . Smh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.