NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 The best call here is still 1-3" and if some sort of sustained heavier band develops the forecast can be adjusted on the fly. It's very likely that if someone does get more then 3" that it's in a very isolated region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: GFS shows a general 3-6 inches for the city and east. Euro came out now anyone with paid maps care to tell us what it showed? I don't have it past 18 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: GFS shows a general 3-6 inches for the city and east. Euro came out now anyone with paid maps care to tell us what it showed? I think you mean city and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Euro is still nothing for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Euro is still nothing for the city. Yup, Similar in a way to RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: The narrowest Norlun I can remember was in SE PA back in Feb 2009. But they do tend to be wider that that one. They still can have a narrower axis of focused heavy snows when compared to other storms here. Heavy Snow in Lancaster, PA 3-4Feb2009 A band of very heavy snow set up right over Lancaster and Lititz, PA during the evening of Tuesday, Feb 3rd, 2009, and lasted into the early morning hours of Wednesday, the 4th. Snowfall rates were estimated to be up to 3 inches per hour at times. Hardly any snow fell to the Southwest and Northeast of the band of snow. The band was generally stationary for 5-6 hours in 10-15 mile-wide a line from Lititz to Lancaster and Strasburg. Locations in Northeast Lancaster County (Reamstown for example) hardly had a dusting. To the southwest, Millersville University had just a half of an inch. Hints at the potential convective nature of the snow were given by the NWS CTP local WRF model run during the daytime on the 3rd. The location of the (potential) heavy snow was near to Lancaster County, but not perfectly located. It was within a few grid points for a 12km model, though. Larger/Broader-scale models will not catch such a small-scale event, and underestimated the potential for snowfall in that tiny area. A look at the LWX (Sterling, VA) balloon/upper-air sounding from 00Z on the 4th (7 PM EST on the 3rd) portrays a very steep lapse rate in the lowest 15kft of the atmosphere. The atmosphere appeared to be unstable all the way up to the tropospheric inversion at about 25kft. The unstable atmosphere most likely led to convective enhancement inside the snow band which began to show up early in the day over Northern and Central PA. An upper-level low pressure area moving eastward from the Great Lakes provided additional lift. The focusing mechanism for the band – that is why it developed and stayed where it was – is much more difficult to explain. For many in Lancaster and Lititz, this will probably be the heaviest snow they receive this winter. The really interesting part of that read? The ''focusing mechanism'' , thats the billion dollar question, whoever figures that out can become a Norlun 'expert'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think you mean city and west Yes sorry that's what I meant. we still don't have a real consensus here which is strange but not surprising giving that the guidance is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 One of the reasons for the NAM's high precip totals is a small band of high VVs that pivots over the area. If this occurs, then high snowfall can happen, but this type of banding is very difficult to predict. You can only be sure of its occurrence if the banding is developing right over your head. One of the better things about this setup is the influence from a developing coastal instead of a pure Norlun trough. Be wary (the majority of you already are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 The 12z NAVGEM looked like a wet run. Unsure about totals or thermo profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 The 12z NAVGEM looked like a wet run. Unsure about totals or thermo profiles.It was also west of the gfs (looked like to me). Red flag right there. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: It was also west of the gfs (looked like to me). Red flag right there. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Do you care to explain why it's a red flag and what that would mean for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Do you care to explain why it's a red flag and what that would mean for the area? NAVGEM is normally the most progressive. When the navgem is west or equal to the placement of globals, a good rule of thumb is the global is too far east. For example, for the 3/14 interior blizzard, the GFS was in the same spot or a bit East of the navgem and this was a red flag for the gfs (granted I believed an eastern track.. And ate crow). Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: They would cancel for wet roads? You are saying there's no chance there is still freezing precipitation in NYC Sunday morning? Or that nothing will have recently stuck to the roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 You are saying there's no chance there is still freezing precipitation in NYC Sunday morning? Or that nothing will have recently stuck to the roads?I would think unless it comes down heavy the roads will be okSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, USCG RS said: NAVGEM is normally the most progressive. When the navgem is west or equal to the placement of globals, a good rule of thumb is the global is too far east. For example, for the 3/14 interior blizzard, the GFS was in the same spot or a bit East of the navgem and this was a red flag for the gfs (granted I believed an eastern track.. And ate crow). Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Thank you for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Thank you for the explanation.No worries brother Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, USCG RS said: No worries brother Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk So then you think that the globals could in fact come further West or this is strictly a nowcast situation at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So then you think that the globals could in fact come further West or this is strictly a nowcast situation at this point? I think that the banding will be a nowcast situation, as they are usually really fickle. The only way to know if you'll get hit is to see it moving over you. But seeing models have it gives the banding a higher probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 BTW the euro was much closer to something on the 12Z run than was indicated here. It had a bullseye with an IVT SW of NYC near 00Z and was very close to something from 00-12Z across NYC and LI, the QPF was not exactly fully there but the setup was for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 BTW the euro was much closer to something on the 12Z run than was indicated here. It had a bullseye with an IVT SW of NYC near 00Z and was very close to something from 00-12Z across NYC and LI, the QPF was not exactly fully there but the setup was for sureYes, the euro looked to go right over bm. I don't have paid maps, so I can't dissect it, however, it looked like a hit. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Yes, the euro looked to go right over bm. I don't have paid maps, so I can't dissect it, however, it looked like a hit. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Looked a lot better than the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 So then you think that the globals could in fact come further West or this is strictly a nowcast situation at this point?Yes, there is the possibility this could actually be a coastal storm for the area. Meso s are showing this just inside bm and I believe they're underestimating the backside. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Nam looks terrible basically nothing for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nam looks terrible basically nothing for the area Shocked....1-3 nw car topper city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 700 omega very strange on the 24hr panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Interesting inverted trough/norlun type precip over MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Before you say Vendor section, why did Lonnie Quinn just say that the 00Z Nam showed 9 inches for NYC? Do broadcast mets have access to the NAM before tidbits does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Just now, sferic said: Before you say Vendor section, why did Lonnie Quinn just say that the 00Z Nam showed 9 inches for NYC? Do broadcast mets have access to the NAM before tidbits does? Neither the 0z 12 km, 4 km, or 3 km versions had 9" for the City. He must have meant the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2017 Author Share Posted March 18, 2017 Jackpots Baltimore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: Before you say Vendor section, why did Lonnie Quinn just say that the 00Z Nam showed 9 inches for NYC? Do broadcast mets have access to the NAM before tidbits does? It showed 9 inches on the 18z run while the 0z run basically showed a car topper like animal said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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