UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:40 PM, NJwx85 said: The RGEM has good overruning for Western areas which is why it's spitting out close to an inch in most of Central and Northern NJ with not much East of the Hudson. You can see here the excellent flow at 700mb with the moisture transport right off the ocean as the 850mb low develops off the NJ coast. The problem for Long Island this run is that the jet max ends up too far Northeast. Look at how much the LLJ intensifies just six hours later. You want to be just north of the LLJ max for the heaviest precip. Expand GFS is looking somewhat similar currently, temps really constrict overrunning totals for NYC/Long Island Long Island does cash in on some coastal enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:41 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is looking somewhat similar currently, temps really constrict overrunning totals for NYC/Long Island Expand The mid-levels on the GFS are much better for Long Island than on the RGEM. Look how much flatter the flow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Please tell me this ends by about 11z/12z Sunday in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 CMC gives mostly all accumulating snow to southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Author Share Posted March 17, 2017 GFS is a lot of precip for the whole area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 4:18 PM, hooralph said: Please tell me this ends by about 11z/12z Sunday in NYC. Expand yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 4:45 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: CMC gives mostly all accumulating snow to southern New England Expand that's the risk from this-these often end up further NE...however the CMC appears to simply develop the low-there's not much of a Norlun trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Interesting to see what the Euro will show, its been kind of bearish on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 4:46 PM, Zelocita Weather said: GFS is a lot of precip for the whole area... Expand How much is NYC looking at per GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 UKMET still looks good. Around 15mm in NYC more on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 5:07 PM, nyblizz44 said: How much is NYC looking at per GFS? Expand Close to 0.75" but temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 5:11 PM, jm1220 said: Close to 0.75" but temps are marginal. Expand Temps are really cold above 950mb but the surface is in the low to mid 30's for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 5:11 PM, jm1220 said: Close to 0.75" but temps are marginal. Expand So we stick with this for another 24 hours and Id still play it safe 2-4 NYC 3-6 ELI and the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 5:15 PM, nyblizz44 said: So we stick with this for another 24 hours and Id still play it safe 2-4 NYC 3-6 ELI and the burbs Expand I think 1-2" is about right for the city with maybe 3" if things play out better than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Author Share Posted March 17, 2017 EURO still the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 6:03 PM, Zelocita Weather said: EURO still the same? Expand Euro died lol... from what I'm ready it's not initializing for anyone, no statement from What Ive seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 6:21 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro died lol... from what I'm ready it's not initializing for anyone, no statement from What Ive seen Expand There was a statement, data late from the Europeans. Pending Merkel/Trump presser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 6:22 PM, psv88 said: There was a statement, data late from the Europeans. Pending Merkel/Trump presser Expand Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 5:10 PM, mikem81 said: UKMET still looks good. Around 15mm in NYC more on LI Expand We may need another run or 2 to see if that Nurlun band shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 6:27 PM, bluewave said: We may need another run or 2 to see if that Nurlun band shifts. Expand This is more along the lines of what I was expecting to happen, although it looks to dry for the far NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 6:28 PM, NJwx85 said: This is more along the lines of what I was expecting to happen, although it looks to dry for the far NW zones. Expand The way this winter has been going with the models, it may be a waste of time to track these snow threats until getting to nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 6:30 PM, bluewave said: The way this winter has been going with the models, it may be a waste of time to track these snow threats until getting to nowcast time. Expand Or just stick with climo until given good reason otherwise, which heavily favors Southeast New England over the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Author Share Posted March 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 6:32 PM, NJwx85 said: Or just stick with climo until given good reason otherwise, which heavily favors Southeast New England over the NYC area. Expand I tend to agree. I'm still realing from the last storm that's why I have been quiet on this. Looks too warm for the city for the light overrunning precip to stick more then on existing snow. Coastal gets going to late for much more then an inch or two. I would want to be out in central Suffolk east for anything reasebling a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 SREF's are much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Part of the problem also is that the precip is going to be hitting a bit of a brick wall thanks to the orientation of the trough and the dome of dry, cold air that's parked just to our North over Western New England. Look at the single digit dew points over Upstate New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 7:56 PM, NJwx85 said: Part of the problem also is that the precip is going to be hitting a bit of a brick wall thanks to the orientation of the trough and the dome of dry, cold air that's parked just to our North over Western New England. Look at the single digit dew points over Upstate New York. Expand The main precipitation comes in Saturday night when it's cold enough and saturated atmosphere. You're a bit too far west for this heavy precipitation, it's most likely going to be Bergen county and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 7:42 PM, bluewave said: At least by tomorrow evening the atmosphere will be plenty cold for snow without a pesky warm layer above 800 mb to worry about. It's just with these fickle Nurlun set ups the bands can shift without notice offshore or to our Northeast. But the areas north and east of NYC are generally favored for heaviest when these set ups produce. Expand Hopefully it's a more general area of light or moderate snow like the GFS seems to have instead of one concentrated band. That would be great for the area under that band but leave everyone else out. Hopefully it's also mostly at night-that takes the strong sun out of it and ensures cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 WWA up for Morris, Sussex, and Warren in NJ: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 346 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-180800- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.170318T1000Z-170319T1000Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 346 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a wintry mix of precipitation, which is in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday. * LOCATIONS...Berks County, the southern Poconos, the Lehigh Valley, and adjacent northwest New Jersey. * HAZARD TYPES...Snow and light freezing rain. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches, along with around a trace to a tenth of an inch of ice. The highest accumulations of snow and ice are expected in the higher elevations. * TIMING...Light snow is expected to begin overnight with accumulations less than an inch expected by daybreak Saturday. Snow is expected to transition to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain Saturday morning and continue through early afternoon. A switchover back to light to moderate snow is expected late Saturday afternoon. Snow should diminish late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Snow and ice accumulations will create treacherous driving conditions. * WINDS...East 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the mid 20s to lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 8:09 PM, NJwx85 said: I live in Bergen County. I think your timing is a bit off, among other things. Your beloved NAM shows most areas wasting a lot as rain. Expand Yanks according to nam we switch over to moderate to heavy snow Sunday night midnight... look at the next frame it's a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.