MJO812 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Too early to write anything off a since these troughs are tricky to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Author Share Posted March 17, 2017 12z NAM looks good, 0.5" QPF for most of N NJ/NYC, with more on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 1:36 PM, snowman19 said: I agree. NWS way too aggressive north and west of the city. That 4-6 should be more like 1-2 Expand I'm not sure how that 4-6" area, which borders me to the North, can end up verifying. Very very generous forecast by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 2:28 PM, Zelocita Weather said: 12z NAM looks good, 0.5" QPF for most of N NJ/NYC, with more on the island. Expand Was good to see the .5 line move back west of the city...The LP is a bit further SW this run allowing some more precip to wrap back west as the coastal forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Looks like its 3k NAMs turn to be the most fun NAM this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 All 4 NAM's are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 We have a narrow window on Saturday night for areas NW of the city to get a few inches as a piece of mid-level vorticy pinwheels around the trough. By the early morning hours on Sunday, the best forcing is South of Long Island and then pinwheels up into SNE which is why the far East end has a chance of getting more than the rest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 3km NAM jackpots the entire area. It looks sick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Author Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 2:56 PM, Morris said: 3km NAM jackpots the entire area. It looks sick! Expand Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 2:58 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Map? Expand Maps aren't allowed in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 I expect WWA from Upton at 4PM for NYC and WSW for Suffolk and possibly Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 2:58 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Map? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ under mesoscale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 I belive that QPF maps are permitted, but if not this can be deleted. The 3k NAM has over an inch LE in some spots, but keep in mind that certain places could start as rain or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Looking at the crappy panels and what's come out so far, RGEM develops a nice area of instability over extreme LHV, and NNJ, SECT... city looks a bit warm at onset, but don't hold me to that... orange/ rockland county looks to do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:02 PM, NJwx85 said: I belive that QPF maps are permitted, but if not this can be deleted. The 3k NAM has over an inch LE in some spots, but keep in mind that certain places could start as rain or a mix. Expand Either way it's good to get rid of the drought remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 To go with my previous post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Author Share Posted March 17, 2017 Impressive, per that QPF map output it almost looks like a more traditional CCB/coastal pattern than a IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 The 3km para NAM on Tropical Tidbits... this isn't what is replacing the operational 32km NAM right? It is just another, higher resolution NAM that is going to go operational soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:05 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: To go with my previous post Expand Is this the overrunning? The city only focuses on the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:07 PM, tdp146 said: The 3km para NAM on Tropical Tidbits... this isn't what is replacing the operational 32km NAM right? It is just another, higher resolution NAM that is going to go operational soon? Expand Replacing the 4km NAM I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 1:17 PM, nzucker said: It's not that marginal, 850s are like -5C and dewpoints are low. That being said, the 2-4" for NYC and 4-6" for White Plains may not verify if everything is shunted east. NWS seems aggressive. Expand Also it's not late March. It's march 17th, not the 27th. It's mid march. Exaggeration again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:05 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Impressive, per that QPF map output it almost looks like a more traditional CCB/coastal pattern than a IVT Expand On the 3 km NAM, it seems that a CCB develops for a short period of time. The north shore of Nassau County is in the proverbial bullseye on that model right now, but inverted troughs are fickle and very difficult to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 RGEM keeps Best snowfall in LHV, NNJ and into city, Long Island sees less edit: north shore sees about .25" LE snow rgem still looks to be a general 2-4" 5 in some parts of NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:08 PM, Morris said: Replacing the 4km NAM I think. Expand The notice on the upcoming change can be found here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin16-41nam_updatesaab.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Transfer on the RGEM literally happens over Long Island, decent precip to the east from clipper, then decent precip over ENE from coastal, islands stuck in RGEM hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:15 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM keeps Best snowfall in LHV, NNJ and into city, Long Island sees less edit: north shore sees about .25" LE snow rgem still looks to be a general 2-4" 5 in some parts of NNJ Expand Its a big improvement from the 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:15 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM keeps Best snowfall in LHV, NNJ and into city, Long Island sees less Expand The 3km NAM loves the ridge line in Western Morris county for this one. It's like how it had that megaband set up right over Northern Morris for the blizzard run after run. That worked out well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 3:15 PM, donsutherland1 said: The notice on the upcoming change can be found here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin16-41nam_updatesaab.htm Expand thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 The RGEM has good overruning for Western areas which is why it's spitting out close to an inch LE in most of Central and Northern NJ with not much East of the Hudson. You can see here the excellent flow at 850mb with the moisture transport right off the ocean as the 850mb low develops off the NJ coast. The problem for Long Island this run is that the jet max ends up too far Northeast. Look at how much the LLJ intensifies just six hours later. You want to be just north of the LLJ max for the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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