Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Latest NAM has .25 -.35 for most of the area Forecast Hour: 084Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Latest NAM has .25 -.35 for most of the area Forecast Hour: 084Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_precip_p24.gifI'm not feeling this storm quite yet. I don't like the PNA axis with this. The 00z nam looks better than the 18z gfs but, I'm reserved yet. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 6z GFS now has around 0.5" QPF for most of the metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: 6z GFS now has around 0.5" QPF for most of the metro.... Euro, NAM also joined the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I think there's a small chance for a significant snowstorm with this, at least locally/regionally. The mid/upper level low slides slowly eastward as it deepens. This makes for a relatively long duration of possible precipitation. Light precip could move into the area as early as Fri night, but the better chance of something heavier is probably around Sat. night. Right now it looks light, localized, and non-continuous. It also looks warm near the coast and at low elevations. But if heavier bands develop over land, they could linger over some areas for a while. If this occurs at night, it could be a close call even for coastal sections. Most likely we're talking a general 1-4" possible, just inland and esp with a little elevation. But I think this has sneaky higher end potential. There's the high baroclinicity environment, potent, relatively slow moving shortwave, and possible inverted trof interaction. With a slightly sharper H5 trof, the area from coastal NJ up through NYC, the lower HV, and LI would have to watch out for a possible pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Kinda like the Euro 700 and 850 track. I'll be interested in the 12z runs. Didn't look at Ukie though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 16 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Kinda like the Euro 700 and 850 track. I'll be interested in the 12z runs. Didn't look at Ukie though. How much did the EURO say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, nyblizz44 said: How much did the EURO say? 3-6 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 3-6 for NYC Man oh MAN. EURO wants to burn us twice in one week?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Here we go again, Everytime I think I'm out they pull me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: Man oh MAN. EURO wants to burn us twice in one week?? Well the recently crowned "king of all models" NAM showed something too so we have that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 This would be our last real snow threat in my opinion. 3-6 would be great a nice refresher and a decent snowstorm to end the year. Euro looked great and nam looked decent. Maybe the euro is not on crack cause the nam has something like the euro in regards to the amounts. 12z runs should be telling us what the real deal is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, nyblizz44 said: Man oh MAN. EURO wants to burn us twice in one week?? Nam has a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This would be our last real snow threat in my opinion. 3-6 would be great a nice refresher and a decent snowstorm to end the year. Euro looked great and nam looked decent. Maybe the euro is not on crack cause the nam has something like the euro in regards to the amounts. 12z runs should be telling us what the real deal is! This looks like the last event for the winter unless the storm next week trends favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Man oh MAN. EURO wants to burn us twice in one week?? EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 That is just the LP position on Sunday afternoon. It doesnt show what happens precip wise before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 Exactly because we know how great the EPS did with this last storm. It locked it in over the weekend and still failed. I'll focus on the NAM on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 41 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Man oh MAN. EURO wants to burn us twice in one week?? Have you looked outside? Queens did not get burned. This past snowstorm has had the same, if not more, impact then a 15" powder event. Queens received 6"-10". That is far from "burned". Euro Kuchera had the exact amount correct. 6"-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: Have you looked outside? Queens did not get burned. This past snowstorm has had the same, if not more, impact then a 15" powder event. Queens received 6"-10". That is far from "burned". Euro Kuchera had the exact amount correct. 6"-10" IMO, this has more of an impact vs a big snowstorm. There are vehicles which still can't get out of their parking spots ( like mine ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 The ole mighty EPS How did that do with the last storm? It has sucked this winter Can the miller b miss us? Yes This is why we will continue tracking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS is not even agreeing with its own operational. Look at how far east the mean is, it barely even brings anything of meaning to extreme eastern New England, let alone us: https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/842346662198673408/photo/1 How about 18 hours earlier when the storm is actually affecting us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: How about 18 hours earlier when the storm is actually affecting us? Heres the NAM at the same time period...looks pretty east. What can we determine happened the previous 24 hours judging just by looking at the low position at 2 pm sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Ignore the NAM at our peril, lol - most of this falls Sat night/Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Norlun..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Norlun..... And we ALL know how well those do down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Nam has been digging deeper each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: And we ALL know how well those do down here! I'm in MMU, and I've heard of Norlun troughs, but they usually hit the Catskills and Connecticut far more than down here, correct? Are there any examples of Norluns hitting NYC Metro particularly hard in the past 25 years? Thanks in advance. I vaguely remember one hitting Litchfield and Fairfield county hard in 2011, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, North and West of Town said: I'm in MMU, and I've heard of Norlun troughs, but they usually hit the Catskills and Connecticut far more than down here, correct? Are there any examples of Norluns hitting NYC Metro particularly hard in the past 25 years? Thanks in advance. I vaguely remember one hitting Litchfield and Fairfield county hard in 2011, but that's it. This is how infrequent it is around NYC. last time was 6 years ago ( and Im not even sure how it turned) 3-6 inches were forcast... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/narrow-heavy-snow-band-to-targ/44005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 The NAM is not done trending aloft. Stronger shortwave ridge between the upstream and downstream s/w trofs. Pretty potent looking. The wave is also slightly deeper and sharper than 6z. A slightly cooler airmass is also locked in place. Regardless how this particular run evolves, as long as guidance is still trending, there is upside potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 32 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: And we ALL know how well those do down here! If the inverted trough (if one forms) it is going to hit New England, as they always do. How many times have they been predicted here and it turned into total futility. I'm making the call right now and Morris can throw it in my face if I'm wrong, but over the next 2 days the models will shift the norlun will shift into eastern New England and this "event" will turn into a non event down here Saturday. Little to no accumulation this weekend. Boundary layer temps too warm, crappy thicknesses, weak isentropic/overrunning, late March. This will be the next bust for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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