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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sick call ey? lol. Next time Im out there playing poker, maybe you and the Moosup weenie would want to do keg stands. I dont work in Manchester anymore, so that ship has sailed.

 

Definitely let me know.  The casino is a good place to meet up. ...I will be getting my free drinks at the racebook.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big signals of INV trof over CT with this. We'll see if it's E CT or W CT

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Going to need a more coastal type evolution for ern areas. Otherwise it's more a NORLUN in western SNE. Doesn't look all that great, but maybe 12z helps.

Which system are you guys talking about?  Weekend or next week?

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1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

lol!!! What a kick in the a.ss, completely missing most of the cape... And Ironic that even with this system Tolland wins. At least on that map. It's like Kevin was at the controls for this one.  Funny sh.it.

Aren't there 2 systems in play? One for the weekend, and one for early next week?

 

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You sure?

 

 

IMG_0039.PNG

Seasoned veterans making rookie mistakes, wow

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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The relay off the Pacific ocean took place overnight ...or a large amount of the momentum over the Pacific NW near WA/Oregan and the lower Canadian pacific coastal region. 

I've noticed the last 12 hours worth of runs have back off strength depiction re the wave mechanics that were destined in previous runs to quasi-close off as it passes over our area some 72 + hours later. 

It may very well be one of those scenarios where the physical sampling exposes a weaker system than the assimilation based upon satellite. Ocean' et al have discussed the data shadowing effects of the NE Pacific Basin as of late, and this next system really exercises that in my mind. It looks like there's just less actually coming off the Pacific with this.

Whatever the exact cause, as is that's a weak/midland strength, mid level vortex passing over stale polar air.  With a bit more confidence (for me) this appears like nuisance trivial inclemency.  

Tele's are trying to engineer another PNA rise a bit more than the more nominal appeal prior to yesterday, for beyond.  There may yet be a bowling ball out there - seems we are also destined to some sort of convoluted (meridional) flow type over the last 10 days of the month.  If the PNA rises and the hemisphere reels from the onrushing seasonal insolation tsunamis, it's why we have a "bowling season" - severing off these potent mid level cold pockets gains some probability for occurrence.   But like we discussed yesterday ... we still need some thickness gradient underneath, or the organization of low pressure suffers.

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The relay off the Pacific ocean took place overnight ...or a large amount of the momentum over the Pacific NW near WA/Oregan and the lower Canadian pacific coastal region. 

I've noticed the last 12 hours worth of runs have back off strength depiction re the wave mechanics that were destined in previous runs to quasi-close off as it passes over our area some 72 + hours later. 

It may very well be one of those scenarios where the physical sampling exposes a weaker system than the assimilation based upon satellite. Ocean' et al have discussed the data shadowing effects of the NE Pacific Basin as of late, and this next system really exercises that in my mind. It looks like there's just less actually coming off the Pacific with this.

Whatever the exact cause, as is that's a weak/midland strength, mid level vortex passing over stale polar air.  With a bit more confidence (for me) this appears like nuisance trivial inclemency.  

Tele's are trying to engineer another PNA rise a bit more than the more nominal appeal prior to yesterday, for beyond.  There may yet be a bowling ball out there - seems we are also destined to some sort of convoluted (meridional) flow type over the last 10 days of the month.  If the PNA rises and the hemisphere reels from the onrushing seasonal insolation tsunamis, it's why we have a "bowling season" - severing off these potent mid level cold pockets gains some probability for occurrence.   But like we discussed yesterday ... we still need some thickness gradient underneath, or the organization of low pressure suffers.

Exactly.

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

No one is paying attention to the mid levels.   The is a mid level magic setup if I've ever seen one.  

Maybe, but the trend of phasing in energy from yesterday's ULL is actually hurting us...if we kept it more separate like guidance showed 1-2 days ago, then it would be a lot better IMHO. We need to see improvement on this 12z suite, or it's not gonna happen for us...outside of nuisance 1-3" type snows. Maybe someone in W CT gets lucky with an IVT...but I'm speaking synoptically here. The IVT stuff won't be known until late in the game anyway.

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