Morch Madness Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 We like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Mid level magic GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I mean we spent a ridiculous amount of time dissecting a system where the mid levels had issues. When was the last time we saw an H7 low go under SNE and round the bend near the BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Really good look for the east and hazey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Oh yeah. Snowy weekend enroute folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I doubt it's done trending either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 would be nice if the mid levels could get going a little earlier .. but I like the look on this run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Need the rates. Light snow won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I like my location for this one. I think the biggest question will be if it can get going quick enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 GFS smoking the good Crack at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS smoking the good Crack at 18Z Nice warning event here, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Takes a weird looking track. I'm not putting faith in this until tomorrow. Battered weenie syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Really good look for the east and hazey. 1-2" up this way as currently modeled . Not sure that can really change much with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, ajisai said: Takes a weird looking track. I'm not putting faith in this until tomorrow. Battered weenie syndrome. What's weird about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Well a west NOGAPS is a good sign. I saw the shape of the trough on the Euro...and it looked really sharp, but then the low developed out and went NE. I think Will said it was because of leftover energy from yesterday. What would it take to slow it down and bring it west? Could yesterdays storm act as a bit of a block? I've been thinking this would trend to a good hit, because that is what is showed a few days ago, and if these things don't disappear they often trend back to the good solution. I bet on a few more w and maybe nw tics. Could be decent for many including here in Dovah. BTW I will post in the banter thread about this, but there are some great looking job openings in Dover at a company called Weather Analytics. Looks like hardcore forecasting and computer skills but also some program manager type jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Cold outlook on GFS right thru end of month. Could this be a record setting cold month for many? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Still not big on this one...I think it ends up largely of the nuisance variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still not big on this one...I think it ends up largely of the nuisance variety. Agree, it is looking too little too late with track and development. Daytime ain't going to help either because marginal rates will just be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS smoking the good Crack at 18Z Yep it hit the pipe the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still not big on this one...I think it ends up largely of the nuisance variety. Violently agree with this. Maybe for some SE folks they get smacked, but I think it will be several pages wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Violently agree with this. Maybe for some SE folks they get smacked, but I think it will be several pages wasted I think there is something to be said about this setup. I don't toss a Miller B blowup with that trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I do think there will be a season finale. Perhaps SWFE at the end of the period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I agree with you on the mid level evolution (500 H) in principle. I'm a little skeptical about the lower baroclinic tapestry for that weekend thing. To schools with that: -- The diabatic tsunamis has kicked in; March is a big differential month for that. We can get away with a fetid polar air mass much easier on March 1 than we can the same air mass being assaulted by daily hemispheric insolation uptake at the end of the month. That's true in February and April, too...but, March has the greatest difference from D1 to 31... Anyway, obviously you know this but my point is, I could see a light/moderate varying intensity fall rates we end up with light rain and parachutes do to decent mid level power spinning over top a diffused lower level baroclinicity... It's one reason why early April 500 mb evolutions can look so delicious but then you look at the attending surface charts and you only have vague closures and ho-hum drabby weather. It's a timing game... where the cold needs to be fresh. It "looks" like we may not have that for this next ordeal. -- This system is also not benefiting from a southern stream moisture advection. If the baroclinic gradients end up week... lacking moisture limit things. Again ... favors chilly rain and 'chutes, .. elevations may do better though - Interesting When you think about baroclinic instability for cyclogenesis: 1) What atmospheric level of thermal gradient is most important? 2) Do you look at steepness of temperature differential (like ∆T over distance), or is there a better way to think about it? 3) Is there a particular temperature point in the gradient that is most relevant for cyclogenesis, or is it simply the part of the temperature gradient that is steepest? Sorry to barrage with questions... and there might not be easy answers to any of these... feel free to ignore or PM. I did some reading online but it's lots of non-intuitive math equations that are not practically useful when I look at a map. I also don't want to elevate this to a new critical variable we must analyze with every storm... it's probably built-in to guidance so why should we independently think about it... but since it was raised it made me curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I do think there will be a season finale. Perhaps SWFE at the end of the period? The grand finale was yesterday, there may be an encore but shes not playing a classic the fans are getting nude for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Gefs is also intriguing for the miller b The trend today is to trend further south with the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I'd like to see the trough axis further W if we are to something more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd like to see the trough axis further W if we are to something more substantial. That can only happen with earlier digging and it doesn't have to be much. I think this system is viable given the calendar and a better chance of a closer in baroclinic zone potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I agree with Jerry, the coastline missed out on the big one, this one could potentially make up for it for Boston this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 The kicker out in the PAC NW, between hrs 72 and 96, is what I don't like about this. It acts to shunt the PNA ridge right as our sw is diving in from the lakes. You can clearly see the affect in how the Ridge axis becomes tilted, which acts to press the whole longwave pattern east, and this seems to be trending increasingly stronger over the past several runs. If it wasn't for this feature, I think we'd be seeing a far more robust system on guidance already. I'll be keying in on the PAC NW going forward; I need to see that trend reverse before I become excited about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Models tend to break down the PNA ridge much quicker than reality would have suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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