Model Mayhem VII

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Once we get past this annoying cutoff, things are pointing in the right direction for golf season down here. Could get 5 or so straight days to dry it out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Once we get past this annoying cutoff, things are pointing in the right direction for golf season down here. Could get 5 or so straight days to dry it out. 

Yeah I get that impression too - it's kind of a switch that flips from 'hope' to 'no hope' for winter.   ...I mean, that's sort of a symbolic jest there; obviously that's probably true anyway.   But what I mean is the complexion more purely looks unwinter like after this beast fills and limps away...  The recession after the warm up doesn't really return to the same kind of misery appeal - 

I'm discounting the D10 cut off intensity on the guidance more so than the usual pass on that time range.  The ensembles from all of them suggest that is more like an artifact of spring cut-off/variability mucking with the operationals.  ie, limited support. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Week of 17th looks very torchy. There's a lot of AN wx coming this month. Installs will be early and often.

[Great Snow 1717]

The people who want it to be in the 80's and 90's with high dews in April will be the same people moaning and groaning if the heat and high dews linger into the fall.

[dendrite]

I think there are 2 people here who want high dews. Somebody in Tolland and a severe weenie in CT.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea, nobody enjoys a swampy tooshie like those two. The rest of us have some common sense. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, nobody enjoys a swampy tooshie like those two. The rest of us have some common sense. 

Make that 3. How could I forget Eek?

I like some high heat days, but let's make them on the weekend and something like 95/60

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Make that 3. How could I forget Eek?

I like some high heat days, but let's make them on the weekend and something like 95/60

I'd give Eek a pass - he's probably thinking of his subtropical garden.

My preference is for temps never topping 75 where I happen to be.  Some 80s for the garden, but not while I'm working in it. 

GFS has been fairly consistent with running Augusta temps into the mid-70s early next week.  GYX is a little less bullish on warmth.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I'd give Eek a pass - he's probably thinking of his subtropical garden.

My preference is for temps never topping 75 where I happen to be.  Some 80s for the garden, but not while I'm working in it. 

GFS has been fairly consistent with running Augusta temps into the mid-70s early next week.  GYX is a little less bullish on warmth.

Heh... at first glance, I thought that read 'August temps into the mid-70s...'    Then I thought, well...if he's up in Maine, maybe.  funny

Anyway, I think the question of preference is really one of conditional hypocrisy?   It certainly is for me.  

Depending on which transition season is just getting under way, say September 15 on one end, and March 15 (which is skewed secondarily depending on the stubbornness of the winter in hand), I am really really hate the season that is ending and really really want on with the one in-coming. But that puts me into a polar opposite every 6 months or so - 

By October, ...I think I hate the prospect of a boring November almost as much as a boring April.  What saves November is that you have the entire winter season ahead, and things can change very quickly toward cold rapture - enough so that one is almost willing to give the ennui a pass. Plus, the debating spirit in the community at large re the anticipation of that ensuing winter is a fun pass-time.  There are things to fill the voids.

April on the other hand? Egh.  Man, you can get bent proverbially over by what more than seems like an unending siege of 42 F mist that for all intents and purposes, locks in for 40 days straight. I've seen it... and there's really not much to pass that time.  I'd rather it just get warm and have on with it, so that we can start having fun outdoors.  You know... Golf. Disk Golf. Tennis. Hoops. Long bike rides... the beach. Hell, just changing out of work clothes and hanging around the pub scene where they've opened the front slider doors/windows etc etc...  So much, utterly killed by BD season.  Plus, ... I don't know what it is... for some reason in the fall, when I want the big cold and snow and ice and nor'easters, it's just easier to take not getting it 'that' week.   I'm right in the thick of it, right now - today just could not have sucked any suckier.  oh man - ...I realize it was not raining, just cloudy and cool - but it seems it doesn't do anything good for any interests. period.  and this kind of crap happens too often at this time of year.

I hate April.  I don't care what it does not next week. It wouldn't change years of abuse.  

You know what's funny ...the worst year for this sort of thing I ever remember wasn't even in April. It was May 2005.  That will live on in personal infamy as not plausibly being any worse save for the advent of a Death Start doing an Alderon to our planet.    

[eekuasepinniW]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I'd give Eek a pass - he's probably thinking of his subtropical garden..

Yep. I'm going to have to deploy another bulleted list.

• There is the garden.
• The fact that we don't get thunderstorms during dry, 70 degree weather.  
• My fondness for warm nights is intense.
• Warm, sticky nights are critical for keeping the pool somewhat swimmable for our guests.
• And hot weather is great for business in lakeside resort areas.

For all those things, I'm willing to sweat like a glass of ice water in the Caribbean and have my rosacea turn my face into a tomato.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I have started to enjoy hot and somewhat humid summer days now

1) I can duck into AC, or the pool, or sit on the screen porch

2) I'm not working much of the summer

3) see #2

[Cold Miser]

18 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The people who want it to be in the 80's and 90's with high dews in April will be the same people moaning and groaning if the heat and high dews linger into the fall.

The only people who claim to want the high dews and heat are locked in an artificially conditioned space all day, and then again when they get home the same thing. Plus those people enjoy the contrary stance even if they do not truly believe in what they try to sell.  Very typical salesman 101 b.s.. There is absolutely nothing to love about high heat and high dews.  NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

The only people who claim to want the high dews and heat are locked in an artificially conditioned space all day, and then again when they get home the same thing. Plus those people enjoy the contrary stance even if they do not truly believe in what they try to sell.  Very typical salesman 101 b.s.. There is absolutely nothing to love about high heat and high dews.  NOTHING, ZILCH, ZERO.

Ha ha.  Nothing like sitting inside your air conditioned house getting stoked watching the Davis console over the mulch beds.

[ORH_wxman]

Temperature talk....that time of the year. My, how far we fall in such a short time every spring season...the rapid transition from CCBs and mid-level lows to debating 63F vs 66F.

 

Anyways, to stay on topic, it does look very warm early next week...might get a brief sniff of summer if lucky. Like 80F in a few spots. Tuesday looks like the warmest day.

[dendrite]

Temp talk haters gonna hate

Tippy may get his 70F sunday in a torchy place in WNE. Maybe BDL can push 4C 850s by 20-21z with some deep mixing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Temp talk haters gonna hate

Tippy may get his 70F sunday in a torchy place in WNE. Maybe BDL can push 4C 850s by 20-21z with some deep mixing. 

KCON 81 Tues. Locked

[eekuasepinniW]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha ha.  Nothing like sitting inside your air conditioned house getting stoked watching the Davis console over the mulch beds.

I'm outside or in un-air-conditioned spaces for probably 90% of the time between 7am until we finish up around 3:30, every single day all summer.  I'm hardcore.

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Temp talk haters gonna hate

Tippy may get his 70F sunday in a torchy place in WNE. Maybe BDL can push 4C 850s by 20-21z with some deep mixing. 

Temperature is part of weather - 

For the general reader:  if we're going to be a "weather forum" and not just some enabling of special interest group's agenda (that quite frankly at times smacks pretty clearly as a dysfunctionality that's merely found a family of like suffers, cloaked behind a shroud of inventive circumstantial rationalism) then those that want to talk about other aspects of weather should have at it.

I don't bring "much" agenda to the table (and I am not saying any particular user does ... just in general). I am sure there are others in the din in here that do find many aspects of Natural Science (including the greater ambit of meteorological phenomenon) fascinating. 

I have no interest in placating/enable a group of people's personal agenda...  That's your bag - don't read about temperature anomalies if it's a problem for your interest arena.

That all said, I think the models are having trouble really committing to the eastern ridging in terms of full onset panache.   It all may turn out to be a shallower type of geopotential positive anomaly, that has periodic "denting events" by interloping S/W pressing over the top.  But the general synoptic future looks like alleviation from the 'face smack' protracted winter-like air masses.  Above normal returning to normal, as oppose to more below..  In other words, I'd pump the breaks on super big warm departures.  

For spring enthusiasts...it's a big turn around and one that should really help stimulate annual green-up, which typically gets it's legs under it in April..  There is time to modulate this (duh) in any direction, just sayn' what it looks like this morning to me. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Temperature is part of weather - 

For the general reader:  if we're going to be a "weather forum" and not just some enabling of special interest group's agenda (that quite frankly at times smacks pretty clearly as a dysfunctionality that's merely found a family of like suffers, cloaked behind a shroud of inventive circumstantial rationalism) then those that want to talk about other aspects of weather should have at it.

I don't bring "much" agenda to the table (and I am not saying any particular user does ... just in general). I am sure there are others in the din in here that do find many aspects of Natural Science (including the greater ambit of meteorological phenomenon) fascinating. 

I have no interest in placating/enable a group of people's personal agenda...  That's your bag - don't read about temperature anomalies if it's a problem for your interest arena.

 

Yeah it's why I typically check out for the most part in summer...debating 63F vs 66F is about as exciting as watching paint dry for me.

 

That said, I do find some temp talk interesting...like if a boundary is nearby for large bust potential or we're threatening records in either direction. Occasionally we'll even get a good severe setup too and then dewpoints actually become relevant to the discussion too outside of one's personal comfort level outdoors or ribbing Kevin for an inflated number over his fertilized lawn.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah it's why I typically check out for the most part in summer...debating 63F vs 66F is about as exciting as watching paint dry for me.

 

That said, I do find some temp talk interesting...like if a boundary is nearby for large bust potential or we're threatening records in either direction. Occasionally we'll even get a good severe setup too and then dewpoints actually become relevant to the discussion too outside of one's personal comfort level outdoors or ribbing Kevin for an inflated number over his fertilized lawn.

Honestly I find those afternoons amazing to observe when there is a coastal boundary or some sort of weak BD in the area to offer a weak trigger in a conditionally unstable humid air mass... The cloud structures are fantastic for filming and the redubbing for fast turbo nerd fast motion CB life cycling.... hahaha.  

I here you on the 63 vs 67 thing ... I'm actually after the whole scale change of synoptics vs seasonality and that tug of war myself.  It does interest me to debate and discuss whether we'll truly get into a taste of summer next week or just a troubled flip flop on the ambient boundary.  

Most above all and most importantly ... the horrifying humiliation of Kevin is an indispensable necessity for all sentient involvement. From hobbyists to professionals ... and even those that don't even care about weather and don't come in here... Like everyone in the world? Without it, life just is not worth it - 

[Cold Miser]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah it's why I typically check out for the most part in summer...debating 63F vs 66F is about as exciting as watching paint dry for me.

 

That said, I do find some temp talk interesting...like if a boundary is nearby for large bust potential or we're threatening records in either direction. Occasionally we'll even get a good severe setup too and then dewpoints actually become relevant to the discussion too outside of one's personal comfort level outdoors or ribbing Kevin for an inflated number over his fertilized lawn.

Pretty much same with me.

Don't get me wrong, I definitely find interest in temp talk if it is dealing with extreme temps (heat or cold waves), or records, and such.  What is laughable are the folks who claim to "love" being in a high temp, high dew scenario as if they are outside, naked and basking it all in for hours and days on end as if it is second nature to them.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Pretty much same with me.

Don't get me wrong, I definitely find interest in temp talk if it is dealing with extreme temps (heat or cold waves), or records, and such.  What is laughable are the folks who claim to "love" being in a high temp, high dew scenario as if they are outside, naked and basking it all in for hours and days on end as if it is second nature to them.

yea well there is the newly released predictions at the Hurricane Conference that we can expect a 1% chance of a major hurricane to look forward to, 5% chance of a 1. We yawn we ZZZZ unless we get a major coastal or something of value to talk about. The temp guys will be out in force but I'll be moving on to baseball and other areas of interest.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol at the spring meltdowns today. Winter had to end. Time to move on. 

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol at the spring meltdowns today. Winter had to end. Time to move on. 

Who's melting?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Who's melting?

The people involved in that last series of posts.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Who's melting?

He is dumb

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice. Good friend 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice. Good friend 

You come out with some weird sh it. We were just talking about how ZZZ temp talk is, zero mention of winter, its been over for a while.  Enjoy see ya whenever something interesting shows up

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

KCON 81 Tues. Locked

dendrite is taking the over, I am on record as taking the under.

he is way smarter than me, so i will most likely be the bust.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I could easily be wrong in pumping the breaks on the max potentials during the Mon-Wed time span.. 

I'm just saying I don't like it that the models are flip-flopping on the magnitude of the eastern positive heights - and at this time of year, ...that's not exactly sending shimmering confidence for heat. 

But, should the runs finally coalesce around a consistent ridge with deep layer WSW continental flow well established, than I'd have less problem with those 80s.  

Also, keep in mind...with s/w's skirting over the arc ...any one that presses back ESE toward the lower Maritimes could send a poorly modeled/not yet modeled BD rolling SW ... just as a reminder.  The MOS products out that range dimming to 70 to 75 have the benefit of yester-bangs that probably looked down the barrel at similar synoptic evolutions but failed to deliver (for a reason ).