jbenedet Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: It's got going to mean squat at H75 True. Well, as I said before, i think it's on the margin for a big event. If the coastal pops 3-6 hr earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: I think you're in a good spot for a strong net gain. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Have not been thrilled with mid-540s thicknesses on GFS - significant mix'n'mess for all but the mountains? (Or am I missing the important factors?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 heh...the NAM cooled off here. That first batch early tomorrow morning is mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Just now, tamarack said: Have not been thrilled with mid-540s thicknesses on GFS - significant mix'n'mess for all but the mountains? (Or am I missing the important factors?) I wouldn't worry about 500-1000 thicknesses with this. 700-850mb are way above normal but still supportive of snow...especially up your way. This is one of those situations where it will be snowing in spots with thicknesses around 546dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: heh...the NAM cooled off here. That first batch early tomorrow morning is mostly snow. Yes, It cooled a few tics from 06z this run, looks like it may remain mostly snow here now unless there is a warm layer between 700 and 850 mb that i have not checked a sounding yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1.1"+ qpf on the Nam up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 I'm certainly not an expert and can only broad brush what the models are saying but it does look pretty interesting for me for at least something. Maybe one of those events where I get a paste job up on the hill while most everyone else gets rain or a non accumulating mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, It cooled a few tics from 06z this run, looks like it may remain mostly snow here now unless there is a warm layer between 700 and 850 mb that i have not checked a sounding yet. There is. It has you close to the sleet line 00z tomorrow, but then it cools a tick at H75 after that. It's damn close, but mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I'm certainly not an expert and can only broad brush what the models are saying but it does look pretty interesting for me for at least something. Maybe one of those events where I get a paste job up on the hill while most everyone else gets rain or a non accumulating mix? I think longitude actually hurts. Might be something where you are ZR or IP and KIZG is snow even at lower elevation. You certainly could get wintry precip though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Ha, what? They are going to get a winter weather event. Why not talk about it? Odd post. Talking is alright. Hoping it hits you? meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Yea I'd def be hedging colder in southwest Maine and NE NH, particularly with all that snow cover....That warm sector of the primary is going to hit a wall near the lakes region and force redevelopment earlier off the coast. 1000 mb low in northern NYS doesn't stand a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Snowiest run of the RGEM yet here. That's a tight gradient, but probably a warning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Snowiest run of the RGEM yet here. That's a tight gradient, but probably a warning here. Just because Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just because please stop the snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: please stop the snow now. Maybe after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 I know this is different than a surface cold air damning situation up here. If I followed that rule the warm air gets into the Sunapee and Lebanon NH area but stops short about 25 miles southwest of me where the Cardigan range is. Just seems like everything drains in from the NE in my hood. The snow two days ago was a 30F fairly dry snow. We have not had a 33F birch bender snow in awhile. Maybe tomorrow AM will be it? Sure will be interesting what happens tomorrow. Maybe this is it for us? My location is just a hair SW of the 8 in the 7.8 figure in the map above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Pretty much looking like 6-8" is a lock here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe after this one. Nah, you follow it up with icing concerns in the bowling lanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah, you follow it up with icing concerns in the bowling lanes. I have been ready to move on, I'm a snow pack guy and that shipped has sailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: I wouldn't worry about 500-1000 thicknesses with this. 700-850mb are way above normal but still supportive of snow...especially up your way. This is one of those situations where it will be snowing in spots with thicknesses around 546dm. Good (weenie) news, and thanks for the clarification. Always good to learn something new. please stop the snow now. Nah. If you could pull a 10-spot from this one (quite unlikely), you would have more snow this season than I've ever measured when not in Fort Kent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Thursday event might be quite the severe wx producer for SNE as it cuts into C NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Nothing severe about the look, mainly downpours with a clap of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing severe about the look, mainly downpours with a clap of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 That really is a beast of a storm that's modeled Thursday. That's the definition of a screamer. That would rip strong SE winds and just flood the mountains up north with massive rains, wind, and big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 lol, 18z NAM GW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 SOS fer sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, 18z NAM GW Good luck man! Hey if it's going to snow might as well enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Good luck man! Hey if it's going to snow might as well enjoy it.Looking at GYX latest map, I guess they don't think it's snowing at all here and dropped all headlines which has me scratching my head as nothing has changed on models today that would give that indication from the last couple days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Warmer run for here tomorrow. I'd rather have plain rain than spend hours cleaning up a few inches of slop. We'll see how it plays out, but I think I'll be playing the role of SNE the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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