RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Ill bet the house a spot like Middletown doesnt see a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ill bet the house a spot like Middletown doesnt see a foot. or anywhere in CT for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: or anywhere in CT for that matter. Nah, the nw hills do have a chance. Dont ride the warmer back to back nam runs just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 hours ago, CTWeatherFreak said: What an insane map for April 3. Even if its tainted, still pretty insane. I was all set to get my car and winter wheels washed today to do the annual switchover to summer meats, having fully resigned myself to the fact that with the dwindling vestiges of snow banks on the wane, its time... But then I woke up and peered at the BOX long range discussion and I almost flipped. I know snow maps are snow maps, but if thats not a mid winter GFS snow/sleet map, I dont know what is. I'll probably switch over to the summer wheels today anyway, forecast not withstanding.. If there's a sure way to bring the goods, thats it! accuracy of those products aside ...concur - I mentioned yesterday, ...replete with my usual flair for embedding irrelevant metaphors ... that this is a winter pattern we are in. The "seasonal change" aspect of this calendar time of the year, this particular go of it, ...is failing, badly. It's really quite remarkable actually just how wrong it is - interesting. There's actually a parade of the blue snow chances on the various models... Right out through day 10...there's like three, the last of which on the 00z guidance hinted at more than merely nuisance too (toward the end of the first week of April or just beyond). That's really pushing it though... We've had snows all the way to mid May around here, true. Though rare, one thing that almost all of them have in common is that they top-heavy the elevations; they snow cap those like white-Russian Ushanka hats, while the valleys tend to cat-paw their way to silvery slush on car-tops and hand rails. So... April 7 to 9...heh... Either way, these are "Farmer's Gold" as the old adage in the Midwest goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man...even slower this time...this thing is crawling.... mmm we've sans the incredible gradient that plagued the winter .. That's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mmm we've sans the incredible gradient that plagued the winter .. That's why. You did a great job pumping point that home all season. I gleaned one of my cardinal rules of forecasting from you years ago....be leery of a huge solution (1"+) when the 582dm resides at or about the latitude of Miami at or around crucial intervals of time...even preceding a ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You did a great job pumping point that home all season. I gleaned one of my cardinal rules of forecasting from you years ago....be leery of a huge solution (1"+) when the 582dm resides at or about the latitude of Miami at or around crucial intervals of time...even preceding a ways. you know and it seems to work pretty well ... things have a funny way of "going wrong" in idiosyncratic annoyances that "aren't really forecast to do so" when that isopleth cuts through N. of MIA. Not every time...of course. The detractors seem to argue in absolutes and don't understand the intrinsic gradation of offsetting factors... Like it's yes or no, but unfortunately ... events don't work out that way in the atmosphere. It's like ... a weak system absolutely gets demolished/sheared by a compressed height field, where a very powerful one stays in tact, but may incur the idiosyncratic erosion... The simple explanation is that the flow can't be too fast. Particularly in phasing... There is probably some magic ratio that can be determined, where the subsume rate of the whole trough/phase can't be 3 times slower than the speed of the flow or your fooked... (speaking hypothetically). In any case, ...this time we 'flirt' with high-ish heights down there, but the key is that the N/ stream isn't already pressing S and squeezing the hell out of the flow and causing things to move too fast prior to this thing coming through the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 SOS next week on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Another wintry threat next week too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 31 minutes ago, dendrite said: SOS next week on the GFS. 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another wintry threat next week too Hmmmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another wintry threat next week too CMC has a nice firehose the weekend after next. Gonna go out on a limb and say, nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 12 Z GFS wants to take out any remaining S VT power lines on Tues/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 It's an interesting series off the 12z this morning ... Most guidance and ensembles means therein I've seen offer up two distinct storm periods - as other's have noted, the first being mid week, but then perhaps a much more full latitude amplification of some form about 3 or so days later. After that beast ...that could be it - That latter one appears to trigger some sort of Rosby roll-back ... Most guidance suggest after which, the pattern significantly changes and heralds a pretty significant warm intrusion into the OV ... That may be a first post equinox warm up of note if not the exit switch ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's an interesting series off the 12z this morning ... Most guidance and ensembles means therein I've seen offer up two distinct storm periods - as other's have noted, the first being mid week, but then perhaps a much more full latitude amplification of some form about 3 or so days later. After that beast ...that could be it - That latter one appears to trigger some sort of Rosby roll-back ... Most guidance suggest after which, the pattern significantly changes and heralds a pretty significant warm intrusion into the OV ... That may be a first post equinox warm up of note if not the exit switch ... yeah...at some point we have to flip the switch....but not the for next week at least it seems. My hope is it's kinda wintry then goes bam and we flip to low 60s and Peter Gabriel echoing out of half opened windows on Buick Skylarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 yeah...at some point we have to flip the switch....but not the for next week at least it seems. My hope is it's kinda wintry then goes bam and we flip to low 60s and Peter Gabriel echoing out of half opened windows on Buick Skylarks.We are now one month from Wiz beloved May 1 !!! After next week burly men in Skylarks with hairy arms hanging out of the windows ?Do we get another sleet b1atch day on Tuesday ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's an interesting series off the 12z this morning ... Most guidance and ensembles means therein I've seen offer up two distinct storm periods - as other's have noted, the first being mid week, but then perhaps a much more full latitude amplification of some form about 3 or so days later. After that beast ...that could be it - That latter one appears to trigger some sort of Rosby roll-back ... Most guidance suggest after which, the pattern significantly changes and heralds a pretty significant warm intrusion into the OV ... That may be a first post equinox warm up of note if not the exit switch ... I would be happy with this, even though my area may not benefit in either of the systems mentioned by Tip. Just something wintry to watch for a week or more, even if it does not directly affect my area. This just delays (and hopefully shortens) the talk of crappy spring backdoors, and the impending blackfly season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 3/29/2017 at 10:49 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah, the nw hills do have a chance. Dont ride the warmer back to back nam runs just yet. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 If you are one of the rarefied ilk that patrons this forum, that derives satisfaction and joy from serene Spring days ..the latter middle and extended range operational Euro off this 12z run this morning takes you through a classic New England butt f'ing with remarkable clarity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: If you are one of the rarefied ilk that patrons this forum, that derives satisfaction and joy from serene Spring days ..the latter middle and extended range operational Euro off this 12z run this morning takes you through a classic New England butt f'ing with remarkable clarity... Yup. And if we have the big d6/7 cutoff in the works, might as well try to our best to get it underneath us. Spring is not coming anytime soon so its pointless at this stage beg for it, Ive given up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. And if we have the big d6/7 cutoff in the works, might as well try to our best to get it underneath us. Spring is not coming anytime soon so its pointless at this stage beg for it, Ive given up on that. mmm. No, if that goes underneath you got 43 F strata rains and mist for 3 days... and that's the point, why it's killer look. that thing rattling around aloft taking a week to fill in does nothing for the spring enthusiasts. hope ur thinking ur not cashing in on snow from that going underneath cuz that ain't happen with a rotted maxer after April 1. whatever - to each his own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mmm. No, if that goes underneath you got 43 F strata rains and mist for 3 days... and that's the point, why it's killer look. that thing rattling around aloft taking a week to fill in does nothing for the spring enthusiasts. hope ur thinking ur not cashing in on snow from that going underneath cuz that ain't happen with a rotted maxer after April 1. whatever - to each his own Nah, just go underneath make it interesting of windy rain and hopefully give the northern resorts the snow. I could use one last pow day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah, just go underneath make it interesting of windy rain and hopefully give the northern resorts the snow. I could use one last pow day or two. Head to Maine this week, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah, just go underneath make it interesting of windy rain and hopefully give the northern resorts the snow. I could use one last pow day or two. i guess if one where being a purist/responsible about matters, it would be nice to finally put this drought bs to bed... Heh. you know it's ironic? ... if all the systems since xmass had lived up to modeled QPF it seems like we'd have to be building arks. it seems frequency of corrective opportunities hasn't been the problem - it's getting the opportunities to do more than under performing pieces of schit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Deluge coming in the next week. Looks like another 3" or so with the next couple systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Rain, cold, rain, cool, rain, cold..No spring in sight..unless one gets their rocks off on 55 tomorrow. Let's get some extended warmth and dews in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rain, cold, rain, cool, rain, cold..No spring in sight..unless one gets their rocks off on 55 tomorrow. Let's get some extended warmth and dews in here It's April 2nd. Not June 2nd. To be honest 55F would feel like a heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Might get some Tippy nape tanning 11-13 or so? Then we trough again after that. Very wet week coming with a river flood warning already in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's April 2nd. Not June 2nd. To be honest 55F would feel like a heatwave. You guys up there need to watch those mtn valleys and gorges... With all this rain coming ...and all that pack and melting...things could ugly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 The rain this week will be a mess. We have old snow remaining from the entire winter, a lot of snow remaining from 3/14, well over an inch of liquid in the pack from yesterday, and the ground is already saturated. The only saving grace is that it should be cold rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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