ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Some intense lift on that. I kind of bet we Tippy Isothermal in many spots on that run. Blue bomb for even Kev. It's also still like 3-4 days out...so highly doubtful the Euro solution verifies verbatim...could def see a tick colder (or warmer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Is this Fri am-Sat am ? Some of the guidance had it into Ct pre dawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Euro ensembles looked juicy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Tough call on QPF ... On one hand ... the numbers appear a bit high for the scale of mechanical look of this thing as a low to mid-grade S/W magnitude. That in its self has an additional layer of contention...in that it's riding up and over a ridge - Another more intangible on that is that the models can also overdo it a bit because in March/April systems get a diabatic boost and models may be tapping into that too much. ...but that's speculative.. I could see this verifying 3/4th those totals and still being a good solid spring blue event where it snows. At this point, it's inside of D4.5 in a tool that boasts some pretty inarguable verification scores... I don't have a problem with at least smacking spring enthusiast's faces (haha)...getting something to happen here. I think that hand of misery has already flown... But how exactly the whack is delivered is debatable, be it a p'ode GF or an out and out bar brawl ... Obviously, those in here want the brawl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Tough call on QPF ... On one hand ... the numbers appear a bit high for the scale of mechanical look of this thing as a low to mid-grade S/W magnitude. That in its self has an additional layer of contention...in that it's riding up and over a ridge - Another more intangible on that is that the models can also overdo it a bit because in March/April systems get a diabatic boost and models may be tapping into that too much. ...but that's speculative.. I could see this verifying 3/4th those totals and still being a good solid spring blue event where it snows. At this point, it's inside of D4.5 in a tool that boasts some pretty inarguable verification scores... I don't have a problem with at least smacking spring enthusiast's faces (haha)...getting something to happen here. I think that hand of misery has already flown... But how exactly the whack is delivered is debatable, be it a p'ode GF or an out and out bar brawl ... Obviously, those in here want the brawl... Helluva 850 inflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 This winter has made me have doubts on big Euro snows. Maybe this one it gets its groove back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This winter has made me have doubts on big Euro snows. Maybe this one it gets its groove back Other models are basically the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Other models are basically the same? Yes, The others all have snow as well just varying amounts, Right now, Euro is the most bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Other models are basically the same? Are the others that wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 It'll be a typical late morch 8" SWFE for Rt. 2 Regions and higher elevations of MA and north, with some glop for Tolland and Andover, and cold rain for metrowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: It'll be a typical late morch 8" SWFE for Rt. 2 Regions and higher elevations of MA and north, with some glop for Tolland and Andover, and cold rain for metrowest. Sounds reasonable this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is this Fri am-Sat am ? Some of the guidance had it into Ct pre dawn Cold rain. That is the deal, so deal with it, and be happy about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 BOX starting to sniff it out Expect precip to overspread SNE from west to east after midnight Thu night to daybreak Friday. With strong high pres to NE the column will be sufficiently cold for most areas to begin as snow. However, due to marginal boundary layer temps snow may mix or even change to rain at times when precip intensity is light, especially near the coastal plain. During heavier periods, the precip will likely be snow given cold temps aloft. Minor accum are possible all the way to the coastal plain but any accum during the day will be confined to colder surfaces with most roads remaining wet. Exception is across higher elevations in interior MA and northern CT where colder temps may result in some accum on roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 I have sort of been watching this one for almost a week now. This is starting to look like no school Friday in Greenfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have sort of been watching this one for almost a week now. This is starting to look like no school Friday in Greenfield. Nammy http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 LOL. Oh Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Cut my life into pieces NAM is my last resort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 18z GFS looks good north of the pike into CNE for a solid pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 I should save that nam snowfall forecast and frame it right next to the pics of my dogs in the dining room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 A little dynamic cooling for NE MA there to flip it back to snow with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: I should save that nam snowfall forecast and frame it right next to the pics of my dogs in the dining room At first i thought you were going to say next to what the dog leaves in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 We got the nam and srefs on our side... what could go wrong? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 For those who like H5..check out the differences in the srn stream system at hr 90 on the 18z GFS vs hr 96 on the 12z GFS. Look at how much stronger and more organized that is compared to 12z. Now look at the QPF/MSLP stuff at the same time. Look how well defined the low is on the 18z GFS. That's what Will and I were saying regarding a much more concentric and organized low with a nice CCB. I like seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For those who like H5..check out the differences in the srn stream system at hr 90 on the 18z GFS vs hr 96 on the 12z GFS. Look at how much stronger and more organized that is compared to 12z. Now look at the QPF/MSLP stuff at the same time. Look how well defined the low is on the 18z GFS. That's what Will and I were saying regarding a much more concentric and organized low with a nice CCB. I like seeing that. Night and day difference @ H5, More consolidated and closed, It looked more like the 12z Euro this 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Perhaps anecdotal but does the GFS still have it's warm bias? I'm done with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For those who like H5..check out the differences in the srn stream system at hr 90 on the 18z GFS vs hr 96 on the 12z GFS. Look at how much stronger and more organized that is compared to 12z. Now look at the QPF/MSLP stuff at the same time. Look how well defined the low is on the 18z GFS. That's what Will and I were saying regarding a much more concentric and organized low with a nice CCB. I like seeing that. Is that what we as a region in SNE want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 If the NAM verified it would be my most annoying storm since Dec 92. It seems to bring the snow to withing a few miles of me and then just stops coming any further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 lol, Whatever the Nam has @hr84 won't be what it ends up at come verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Kevs moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is that what we as a region in SNE want? Well anybody who is in the precip shield wants that this time of year. It still borderline at 850, but if you can develop a good CCB, you have a better chance flashing over to snow, especially if the lower levels are cold enough. If this were to be something where it develops rapidly south of SNE, you would have a better shot in CT of not torching 850 so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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