Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I've seen silver dollar pancakes fall on May 22nd, back in 2002, on Boston Common... We piled into a car to hit the "Pour House," then from there head on in to town for some stylo at some over priced venue where other donned up vapids lean and drape themselves ...  But in route, as is typically the case, my attention wasn't there.  

It was snowing and it was May 22nd, less than one f'n month from the hottest, highest one-eyed-monster solar day of the year. I recall specifically realizing that, 'One f'n month - holy ****'.  Nothing major.. It was more unforgettable for the scale and degree of face smacking when it snowed about 1" on the grassy surfaces anywhere on that particular date.  By then, I'm DEFINITELY over it :) 

I also remember realizing that if it can do that 2002, maybe it's really just a game of inches with these anomalies.  Take "The year without a summer" back when... 1816.  The only difference? (...for all intents and purposes) Back then it snowed on the hottest, highest one-eye monster solar day of the year.  And in 2002, we didn't have a Global excuse like before. Interesting...  All you need is a belch from below and the fragility of climate is exposed.

Which lends to the notion of Humanity ... coming along and in just essentially 300 years, managing to convert to atmospheric aerosols what took this planet some 2 billion years to create in fossil fuels: gee, I wonder if we can pull that off without consequence?   Maybe Humanity is just a metaphor for a giant super-volcano.. It's just that our eruption takes a few centuries.  Heh. 

Anyway... I don't see any reason why it can't blue thump from this thing everyone's loading up their syringes with... One thing I have noticed over the years is that (ironically) the opposite tends to be true in the spring, when it comes to cold air in the lower levels/thickness in these models. They tend to see +1 and +2 CCB heads in middle ranges, but it ends up an isothermal job.   That kind of error can actually be explained reasonably well in that ... +1 or 2 is pretty fragile and the exact dynamics-caused modulation is too finite a details in the middle range.  So you see a smooth +2, heh... I'm actually less concerned about "enough cold air" for the interior and elevations. 

I am however wondering why the models have that much mechanics wave power aloft as that thing rides over the ridge as a middling intensity short wave before it even makes the climb up and over the arc.  That "might" correct toward a more damped solution and that would 86 matters if that happened... we'll see.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not what you want to see this time of year 

eps_z500a_5d_c_noram_61.png

Eh, get sun and W-NW flow this time of year and those blues turn into yellows at the srfc. It's all about wind direction this time of year. Likewise oranges and reds at 500mb can give us some of our coldest high temps as we head through April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is locking in to be a congrats Dendrite classic spring birch bender 

I would like to see that middle finger pushing from the center of low pressure way down south into NY state, disappear. You'll pump in too much warmer air aloft. Canadian representation actually was kind of sweet. Nice HP north of Maine, with a good, strong low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would like to see that middle finger pushing from the center of low pressure way down south into NY state, disappear. You'll pump in too much warmer air aloft. Canadian representation actually was kind of sweet. Nice HP north of Maine, with a good, strong low.

Ukie looked good too with that...we want a bit of split flow there to the north to increase the CAD signal earlier in the storm cycle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, get sun and W-NW flow this time of year and those blues turn into yellows at the srfc. It's all about wind direction this time of year. Likewise oranges and reds at 500mb can give us some of our coldest high temps as we head through April.

I certainly agree to an extent but there's still significant snow cover throughout Quebec, into northern sections of Upstate NY and NNE. For the southern half of SNE it won't matter much but I think this is pretty clearly BN for the rest of us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I certainly agree to an extent but there's still significant snow cover throughout Quebec, into northern sections of Upstate NY and NNE. For the southern half of SNE it won't matter much but I think this is pretty clearly BN for the rest of us. 

He's also using the control run which looks colder than the mean.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don't like seeing ens control maps anytime of the year.

We don't call him Colonel Cold for no reason!! No matter where..no matter how...he swoops in to save the day. Whenever a storm is being played down, whenever the talk of cold is being muted...he is here to save the day. GGW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We don't call him Colonel Cold for no reason!! No matter where..no matter how...he swoops in to save the day. Whenever a storm is being played down, whenever the talk of cold is being muted...he is here to save the day. GGW.

Defender of dendrites lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is locking in to be a congrats Dendrite classic spring birch bender 

I hope the models trend south but I think this mornings GFS was back north again?   We don't need another birch bender we have one right now. Still 33.7F  The birch trees around here are bending badly.  It's been 24 hours of ice cover now.  Temperature is not They should melt this afternoon and get a couple of days to recover but a heavy wet snow would not be helpful. .....I'm done.....I'll send this one south to you guys....

20170328_085829_resized.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is locking in to be a congrats Dendrite classic spring birch bender 

Morning AFD from GYX leans toward OTS, only light precip.  06z GFS showed high-end advisory snow for central Maine, assuming late season ratios closer to 8:1 than 10+.  Get some fluff in that qpf and elevations could do very nicely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

So it's a winter pattern...

Just in mind's eye, super-impose this over a January canvas and we probably just went through a low-end ice-storm yesterday and we're looking at a parade of other winter storm chances until it breaks into a new paradigm.

But, the incontrovertible abuse of gaining insolation strength has this a fetid air mass ... and that's the unfortunate rub for those holding out on winter. It has flipped a marginal air mass onto the warm side, and prrroooobably could not be worse for most tastes.  

I can't imagine days on end of inundating fog at 36 to 40 F in between episodic dystopian chilly rain water as being what society has in mind... And it is an affront on multiple preferences.  In the absence of Spring, the weather geeks can rejoice in snow? Nope... not this way.  Ha, it's pretty bleak and hopeless - truly and utterly unredeeming. Really pretty remarkable just how bad that is out there... 

Be that as it may, the time of the year (it appears) is really the defining difference in my mind; remove the moderation forcing by the warming hemisphere, we're adding to seasonal snow and ice totals.  Hard to dispute all that when it's in the mid 30s on March 28 after we've got polar highs pulsing synoptically by to the N. Hello - just ever so perfectly wrongly not cold enough to at least make things interesting.

And there's no spring in sight that way.  Not the way we think of it, as short sleeve days with sun heating Crocus choots, tulips and drunk bumblebees to life.  We wait...

Maybe this late week thing will work out... seeing as God him self hate spring - maybe we can at least be entertained? Probably f that up too; it sometimes seems like when we get into these bend-over deals, things creepily go out of their way to find the most dissatisfying result relative to all desires.   

Reminds me a little of that Larson "Far Side" cartoon where this terrified plebe of a being is hiding on the opposing side of a boulder out in a field, ...arms and legs splayed pressed against the rock face...as a booming voice is coming out of a big cloud in the back drop that says, "Come on out you little CREEP!"

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I don't like seeing ens control maps anytime of the year.

I don't know what is going on with this site, caches images, 2nd time in a row . Beside not being able to delete old attachments other than  one at a time, all of this upgrade has been a pain in the ass . I once again uploaded the wrong one as I ran out of room. Pretty much done with sharing anything, oh well. I'll just Monday morning quarterback like the rest

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...