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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It just reeks of either a total elevation event in SNE or nothing at all except for ski areas. This is one of those cut and dry either or's. 

Everything is on the table right now I think...as the ensembles show.

To me instead of elevation event it seems more like a SWFE might be where we end up with the antecedent airmass in place with CAD.  The 18z GFS shows this quite well...with warmth moving from SW to NE...such that actually NE Mass is one of the last spots to warm up in SNE based on the 850/925mb temps. 

Wedges in there with east of the Green Mtn Spine down to northern Mass with core of the cold in the classic CAD regions of the Lakes and NE.

gfs_t850_neng_17_zpslshwcnfa.png

gfs_t850_neng_19_zpspedqumen.png

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well that would suck . Hopefully that's a terrible analog 

Don't take the analog literally to every detail. The January 1996 blizzard was a good analog for the January 2016 blizzard even though parts of the north shore were choking on exhaust in 2016 while they grabbed 30" in 1996...but the storm still had a lot of similarities. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't take the analog literally to every detail. The January 1996 blizzard was a good analog for the January 2016 blizzard even though parts of the north shore were choking on exhaust in 2016 while they grabbed 30" in 1996...but the storm still had a lot of similarities. 

ORH has 4.1 has snowfall for the 93 storm while Boston 8.5 ,very odd

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def gonna be a latitude component with that high where it is. You can even look at the loose analog from 3/24/93 I posted to scooter. That one had basically zero snow south of the pike but BOS got blasted with like 8-10". 

Now maybe this time the gradient is further south but there's a latitude limit on this for sure. Elevation will def help...it always does this time of year but it won't be the only factor. 

Funny I was just looking around the VT sites for that date and that seems similar to current guidance in terms of precip modeled... up in these parts it was 0.25-0.5" QPF event with 2-5" of snow with BTV on the lower end at 2.4" and the higher 3-5" amounts from the Greens east.  Mansfield was 0.4" QPF with 3" of snow but that seems low given the temps and QPF unless they got sleet...or it was just the classic under-report for the snow value up there.

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

ORH has 4.1 has snowfall for the 93 storm while Boston 8.5 ,very odd

Yeah. It actually makes sense though looking at the '93 setup. BOS being further east was in deeper cold air. ORH had a lot of icing on that. I remember icing in midday at like 30 degrees after the quick 4-5" thump. I was pissed when I found out people near BOS got over 10", lol. 

 

It it was funny. Like this roller coaster emotional ride of first being happy we got 4-5" of snow and the ice when mostly rain was predicted to then being kind of pissed when you realized you missed another 6" by like 10-15 miles. Lol. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. It actually makes sense though looking at the '93 setup. BOS being further east was in deeper cold air. ORH had a lot of icing on that. I remember icing in midday at like 30 degrees after the quick 4-5" thump. I was pissed when I found out people near BOS got over 10", lol. 

 

It it was funny. Like this roller coaster emotional ride of first being happy we got 4-5" of snow and the ice when mostly rain was predicted to then being kind of pissed when you realized you missed another 6" by like 10-15 miles. Lol. 

:weenie:

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

:weenie:

That storm was def all rain down in your part of RI. You were probably watching the 6pm news with footage of MA getting thumped with a paste job while throwing your 1993 reebok pumps across the room. 

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I'm not really invested for this area. Would like to see the storm trend stronger as well as the High strength and placement.  I would like to see a nice clean PNA ridge  and not another storm over the SW US.  Airmass looks marginal. Hopefully it trends better.  By this time of year I either want a major event or just get over with it.  An inch or two of slush is really pointless..

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1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I'm not really invested for this area. Would like to see the storm trend stronger as well as the High strength and placement.  I would like to see a nice clean PNA ridge  and not another storm over the SW US.  Airmass looks marginal. Hopefully it trends better.  By this time of year I either want a major event or just get over with it.  An inch or two of slush is really pointless..

This!! 

 

And you just know, if it's anything frozen...it'll most likely be an inch of slush.   

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How was the Superstorm there?

I was in Brockton. It was basically a 4 hr thump...lol. But, we had about 10-11" or so.  Still the best obs for a storm ever in BOS. Might be all time winter ob in CONUS for a city of town outside of MWN. 

METAR KBOS 132300Z 06047G62KT 0SM +TSSN -BLSN OVC/// M01/M01 A2916 RMK R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/10/11 SLP875 P0028 T10061006

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kevin is deathly afraid of 33F rain while everyone else is prancing in paste.

I think if we make it through another 24 hours with models showing a gradient of heavy snow just to his north, he's gonna start getting a pit in his stomach. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was in Brockton. It was basically a 4 hr thump...lol. But, we had about 10-11" or so.  Still the best obs for a storm ever in BOS. Might be all time winter ob in CONUS for a city of town outside of MWN. 

METAR KBOS 132300Z 06047G62KT 0SM +TSSN -BLSN OVC/// M01/M01 A2916 RMK R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/10/11 SLP875 P0028 T10061006

Yea hard to top that first 4 hours Sh it even the sleet was intense

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yet somehow I still have snow on my roof (just a little) from 2 weeks ago...and 100% coverage.  I couldn't do that in Jan or Feb

When you get a storm that dumps 1.5-2" of qpf dense snow/sleet, it does wonders for preservation. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When you get a storm that dumps 1.5-2" of qpf dense snow/sleet, it does wonders for preservation. 

There was 3 feet plus in the woods off of Ridge Run on North Peak. They put a road in you have to ski under a bridge, several new million dollar homes too.

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The heavily wooded areas of Enfield still have fairly solid cover, the mainly residential areas are piles and patches of coverage and the more urbanized areas near the Malls/Plazas and highways are just piles. My back yard is down to about 20 percent and the front is gone.  Its just about over here.  I noticed some depths of 22-24 inches just north  of my parents Cabin in Mount Vernon Maine near Tamarack/ Farmington Maine area.  Pretty impressive for an area generally only 400-600 ft elevation.

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