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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How many runs have really shown something?   I'm not buying at this point.  But hopefully something to watch

A mean of the Euro/GFS/GGEM is a nice snowstorm for a large area.  All of them have something for northern half of SNE and NNE.  

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The EURO is his nightmare...12-18" ORH north while he's pumping water out of his basement.  

It's a pants creamer for me. Typically when I get snow, even down there they get some sort of slop.  I feel it's rare that I get 12" and the Massif gets zilch....correct me if I'm wrong. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah might as well forecast 2-3 feet at this point...we can always adjust up if need be.

Absolutely...I mean 25-30 inches is easy to come by at anytime during the winter..and even easier in April...most of us in SNE should be close to a 100 inches after this potential event.   

 

Lmao...holy crap you can't make that sh*t up.

 

Rain..maybe a lil mix for most in SNE is a good bet at this point.  Worcester latitude and North might be a different story.  Not buying at all for most of SNE at this point.  

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is a mix in CT..and would likely end up isothermal blue bomb . I'd be worried farther north should the south trend continue..but we'll see

I was only stating what it actually showed, not what it "likely" would end up as.  You're right though, the whole column could be colder than it shows.

 

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

It's a pants creamer for me. Typically when I get snow, even down there they get some sort of slop.  I feel it's rare that I get 12" and the Massif gets zilch....correct me if I'm wrong. 

I have no idea, I just know what the Euro showed and that its hard to snow when its above freezing at 5,000ft.  Only 8 more solutions to go.  I hope everyone in SNE can get one more shovel-able snowfall.  We've had a great run of winter lately with still a foot of very dense snow on the ground.  Spread the wealth.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was there any EPS support ?

I posted the EPS above...the individuals do have some big SNE hits and also some big NNE hits.  Some give nothing to anyone and others give a widespread light to moderate event for all.

Basically its all over the place but the mean is pretty much a climo map for this time of year with CAD signature.

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I think every model gives some snow to at least northern half of SNE. Some solutions spread it further south but there's actually some decent agreement for this. The caveat though is because it's a close call thermally speaking, small shifts will either take a lot of SNE and CNE out of the snow or give a lot more snow to marginal areas. 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I posted the EPS above...the individuals do have some big SNE hits and also some big NNE hits.  Some give nothing to anyone and others give a widespread light to moderate event for all.

Basically its all over the place but the mean is pretty much a climo map for this time of year with CAD signature.

It just reeks of either a total elevation event in SNE or nothing at all except for ski areas. This is one of those cut and dry either or's. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think every model gives some snow to at least northern half of SNE. Some solutions spread it further south but there's actually some decent agreement for this. The caveat though is because it's a close call thermally speaking, small shifts will either take a lot of SNE and CNE out of the snow or give a lot more snow to marginal areas. 

Yeah there's pretty decent agreement this far out for CNE as a whole (which I look at as sort of north of the Pike up through the Lakes Region) if you break New England into three zones.  Pretty much each model has snow smack in the middle.

18z GFS is like a SWFE.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It just reeks of either a total elevation event in SNE or nothing at all except for ski areas. This is one of those cut and dry either or's. 

There's def gonna be a latitude component with that high where it is. You can even look at the loose analog from 3/24/93 I posted to scooter. That one had basically zero snow south of the pike but BOS got blasted with like 8-10". 

Now maybe this time the gradient is further south but there's a latitude limit on this for sure. Elevation will def help...it always does this time of year but it won't be the only factor. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def gonna be a latitude component with that high where it is. You can even look at the loose analog from 3/24/93 I posted to scooter. That one had basically zero snow south of the pike but BOS got blasted with like 8-10". 

Now maybe this time the gradient is further south but there's a latitude limit on this for sure. Elevation will def help...it always does this time of year but it won't be the only factor. 

Well that would suck . Hopefully that's a terrible analog 

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