Model Mayhem VII

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

at least it's end of March/early April and not early May, that week of rain/cold last May 1st sucked...

Late March and early April are way too early to expect nice weather anyway...best you can hope for realistically is a day or two in the 60s...occasionally you get lucky and pop 70F+ that early, but we're more likely to still get snow than 70s that early...we've been kicked back to reality pretty good after the two torches in 2010 and 2012. I think this is our 4th solidly below normal temp March since 2012...only last year bucked that trend.

I think 2012 had like 4 days in a row around 80F...pretty incredible. I remember 1998 had a couple late in the month and then we had an obscenely early 80F day in March 1990. Those are tough to get though.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Late March and early April are way too early to expect nice weather anyway...best you can hope for realistically is a day or two in the 60s...occasionally you get lucky and pop 70F+ that early, but we're more likely to still get snow than 70s that early...we've been kicked back to reality pretty good after the two torches in 2010 and 2012. I think this is our 4th solidly below normal temp March since 2012...only last year bucked that trend.

I think 2012 had like 4 days in a row around 80F...pretty incredible. I remember 1998 had a couple late in the month and then we had an obscenely early 80F day in March 1990. Those are tough to get though.

Agree-you need snowless winters nationwide to get those temps---March 2010 had no snow in Canada due to the crazy block and 2012 followed a non winter for the whole country.  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree-you need snowless winters nationwide to get those temps---March 2010 had no snow in Canada due to the crazy block and 2012 followed a non winter for the whole country.  

Plus we already got our early 70s....in February this year, lol. Asking for another round in March is def too steep.

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Late March and early April are way too early to expect nice weather anyway...best you can hope for realistically is a day or two in the 60s...occasionally you get lucky and pop 70F+ that early, but we're more likely to still get snow than 70s that early...we've been kicked back to reality pretty good after the two torches in 2010 and 2012. I think this is our 4th solidly below normal temp March since 2012...only last year bucked that trend.

I think 2012 had like 4 days in a row around 80F...pretty incredible. I remember 1998 had a couple late in the month and then we had an obscenely early 80F day in March 1990. Those are tough to get though.

March 2013 was +2.2 at my place.  Then the next 2 years came in at -9.5 and -5.8, my 2 coldest months of March.  (And 2014 was Farmington's coldest March of 124.)

Plus we already got our early 70s....in February this year

Only 54 in Feb here, though that's my mildest Feb reading in my 19 years in the foothills, so quite noteworthy.  Highest so far this month is 45 - one doesn't expect a Feb temp 9F above anything in the month following.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Plus we already got our early 70s....in February this year, lol. Asking for another round in March is def too steep.

but they say March is no longer a winter month.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

but they say March is no longer a winter month.

 Oh yeah, I was out driving in the hill towns today in not a winter month +SN.

[moneypitmike]

This is the worst time of the year.  Is there anything redeeming about early spring?  April--and even well into May  for mid-coast/down east-just sucks.

 

34.9*

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This is the worst time of the year.  Is there anything redeeming about early spring?  April--and even well into May  for mid-coast/down east-just sucks.

 

34.9*

Not too many bugs for a while...spring skiing....that's about it

[CoastalWx]

It's definitely a bummer. This time of year just is depressing. At least winter is alive and well up north. All we have, is to hope for floods.

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's definitely a bummer. This time of year just is depressing. At least winter is alive and well up north. All we have, is to hope for floods.

Spring is very boring. Can we fast forward to winter?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Anyone who doesnt enjoy spring needs to get checked. Enjoy the outdoors a bit, get off your monitors and screens. 

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not too many bugs for a while...spring skiing....that's about it

spiders and ticks active down here in the deep south

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's definitely a bummer. This time of year just is depressing. At least winter is alive and well up north. All we have, is to hope for floods.

floods suck, hope for a 97 redux

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Yeah if the weather is nice. Problem is the 30's and 40's and rain. Honestly less to do outside than when there is snow in the winter.

You have a lot nicer springs there than in other parts of New England.

Its the folks who dont like the warm months I refer to. 30s and 40s is wrist slit worthy, why I question those who want a below normal April. May is the best month out here, I hardly spend much time indoors that month. Golf, soccer, parks, picnics, more golf....winter is my favorite obv but geez it can wait until it gets here again. Until then, we enjoy. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

floods suck, hope for a 97 redux

I won't see that again. Not anything near the ferocity. Still number 1 storm for me.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Its the folks who dont like the warm months I refer to. 30s and 40s is wrist slit worthy, why I question those who want a below normal April. May is the best month out here, I hardly spend much time indoors that month. Golf, soccer, parks, picnics, more golf....winter is my favorite obv but geez it can wait until it gets here again. Until then, we enjoy. 

I'm not a warm weather fan (like 90+) but Spring around here blows. I agree that may can be a real nice month.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I won't see that again. Not anything near the ferocity. Still number 1 storm for me.

I would give a lot to have seen what that was like in eastern mass, where I lived in Bristol Ct we had 14 inches or so and no thunder or anything, rates may have briefly hit 2/hr but it was steady 1/hr stuff......impressive but I think April 82 ( I was only 9/10 but remember deep powder and schools closed for 3 days straight!) was much better there anyways

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I would give a lot to have seen what that was like in eastern mass, where I lived in Bristol Ct we had 14 inches or so and no thunder or anything, rates may have briefly hit 2/hr but it was steady 1/hr stuff......impressive but I think April 82 ( I was only 9/10 but remember deep powder and schools closed for 3 days straight!) was much better there anyways

I will say part of the nostalgia is what we really miss these days. Those days of massive positive busts. The look of concern on OCMs faces. That's one of the things I'll remember. All those local mets having that "we have no effing clue what will happen" look.  Coming up to the big 20yr anniversary of it.

[codfishsnowman]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say part of the nostalgia is what we really miss these days. Those days of massive positive busts. The look of concern on OCMs faces. That's one of the things I'll remember. All those local mets having that "we have no effing clue what will happen" look.  Coming up to the big 20yr anniversary of it.

to have a wet snow reach a depth of 20-30 inches considering the compaction and melting from underneath really speaks to the obscene rates which you guys experienced plus the insane winds which also often have a negative effect on overall snow depth

[Typhoon Tip]

Granted I'm not seeing the Euro at very high resolution like paying clients... still, that looks like the 00z is going to bust on sky conditions for late this afternoon.  That operational run had 700 mb RH nose diving below 50 % during the afternoon and perceived (synoptic) clearing from the N as that late season polar high wedged in... suppressing the boundary S.  Doesn't look like it's going to make it. 

This 12z GFS operational does indicate similar handling but waits some 6 to 9 hours ...overnight to do that.  Interesting.  It has a small pocket of positive omega slipping SE out of upstate NY during the mid day and that NVA combined with a drying from the low level wedging probably gets sun in the region for a time before the wall comes back in Sunday night.

Anyway, chilly perhaps but say... ~ Mass Pike and point N may salvage a decent day for several midday hours tomorrow - I'm just responding to the steady diet of woe-is-us post content ... If it is any consolation, even in the low 40s the sun at this time of year can do wonders to offset a chilly day.

Other than that... who knows how long it will take to really get seasonal weather in here.  Earliest? we probably do wait until next weekend for a more seasonal chances... Thing is, things can modulate pretty quickly in guidance as the increasing insolation registering in input grids crosses physical thresholds where the models flip out.  Next thing you know a cut-off ends up being pancakes cu with enough sun to get the temperature normal out of nowhere.   You can see the models ...particularly the foreign types eroding/retreating the deep tropospheric cold signal everywhere when stepping back and a viewing from a distance from their respective 00z to 240+ ...

Frickin' GFS ...man... it's like it starts to do that...but beyond D5 it beady eyed can't wait to drill the pattern back to something akin to circa early to mid January.  Not sure why it keeps forgetting what time of the year it is, but it's late mid and extended ranges are extra double egregious looking even for long lead standards...

[weathafella]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Granted I'm not seeing the Euro at very high resolution like paying clients... still, that looks like the 00z is going to bust on sky conditions for late this afternoon.  That operational run had 700 mb RH nose diving below 50 % during the afternoon and perceived (synoptic) clearing from the N as that late season polar high wedged in... suppressing the boundary S.  Doesn't look like it's going to make it. 

This 12z GFS operational does indicate similar handling but waits some 6 to 9 hours ...overnight to do that.  Interesting.  It has a small pocket of positive omega slipping SE out of upstate NY during the mid day and that NVA combined with a drying from the low level wedging probably gets sun in the region for a time before the wall comes back in Sunday night.

Anyway, chilly perhaps but say... ~ Mass Pike and point N may salvage a decent day for several midday hours tomorrow - I'm just responding to the steady diet of woe-is-us post content ... If it is any consolation, even in the low 40s the sun at this time of year can do wonders to offset a chilly day.

Other than that... who knows how long it will take to really get seasonal weather in here.  Earliest? we probably do wait until next weekend for a more seasonal chances... Thing is, things can modulate pretty quickly in guidance as the increasing insolation registering in input grids crosses physical thresholds where the models flip out.  Next thing you know a cut-off ends up being pancakes cu with enough sun to get the temperature normal out of nowhere.   You can see the models ...particularly the foreign types eroding/retreating the deep tropospheric cold signal everywhere when stepping back and a viewing from a distance from their respective 00z to 240+ ...

Frickin' GFS ...man... it's like it starts to do that...but beyond D5 it beady eyed can't wait to drill the pattern back to something akin to circa early to mid January.  Not sure why it keeps forgetting what time of the year it is, but it's late mid and extended ranges are extra double egregious looking even for long lead standards...

And if you would the post wouldn't have been written...lol...because the euro cloud maps are spot on from last night's run.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And if you would the post wouldn't have been written...lol...because the euro cloud maps are spot on from last night's run.

Meh...that aspect was a small fraction of the purpose of that post dude -

aside, than it is dubious how that product is engineered because 700 mb RH being 20 % 00z is clear sky, and that's what the same model purports of the deeper layer RH.  Having said that, we'll see how the afternoon ages onward... The rad returns are showing a sudden suppression pressing SE from NY rather abruptly over the last 2 to 3 hours so it may yet improve across VT before long... 

 

 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh...that aspect was a small fraction of the purpose of that post dude -

aside, than it is dubious how that product is engineered because 700 mb RH being 20 % 00z is clear sky, and that's what the same model purports of the deeper layer RH.  Having said that, we'll see how the afternoon ages onward... The rad returns are showing a sudden suppression pressing SE from NY rather abruptly over the last 2 to 3 hours so it may yet improve across VT before long... 

 

 

Do you think there is a chance for a few hours of sun tomorrow morning in S Vermont?

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh...that aspect was a small fraction of the purpose of that post dude -

aside, than it is dubious how that product is engineered because 700 mb RH being 20 % 00z is clear sky, and that's what the same model purports of the deeper layer RH.  Having said that, we'll see how the afternoon ages onward... The rad returns are showing a sudden suppression pressing SE from NY rather abruptly over the last 2 to 3 hours so it may yet improve across VT before long... 

 

 

You've been through late March around here-clear at H7-RH 100% H8 on down.  I've frequently traveled by air in late March and experienced that very thing.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You've been through late March around here-clear at H7-RH 100% H8 on down.  I've frequently traveled by air in late March and experienced that very thing.

actually... as an afterthought ... the cloud product might be "total ceiling" ?   ..

there could be higher level RH spilling over, sure -

also, the satellite shows suppression S with the clouds from the N; judging by now-cast I may just be a matter of hours of error which isn't altogether significant. 

[weathafella]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

actually... as an afterthought ... the cloud product might be "total ceiling" ?   ..

there could be higher level RH spilling over, sure -

also, the satellite shows suppression S with the clouds from the N; judging by now-cast I may just be a matter of hours of error which isn't altogether significant. 

And the later hours on last nights Euro shows just that!

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Do you think there is a chance for a few hours of sun tomorrow morning in S Vermont?

If I had a put it out there ...I say broken with intervals of sky-lights then clouds return late or at night.    It's one of those deals where it's better NE more so than NW. 

Course, this is all based on the 00z ...haven't seen 12's data yet -

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And the later hours on last nights Euro shows just that!

Heh, you know ...one's personal experience hardly qualifies as 'climate' ...but, mine is that when you have these side-door suppression looks the sky ends up better than modeled too.  What ends up happening more often is a sharper delineation that aligns ...oh, say Watertown NY to Islip, where it goes from cloud to broken to scattered to even clear about 40 miles worth.  I could see that setting up during mid day Sunday for a time. 

Or not - just a guess

[Typhoon Tip]

See this is interesting... The back edge of the precipitation band proceeded suddenly S-SE from about Watertown NY to S of Glenns Falls now ALB in like 1 1/2 hours.. .That is some seriously rapidly changes - 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, you know ...one's personal experience hardly qualifies as 'climate' ...but, my is that when you have these side-door suppression looks the sky ends up better than modeled too.  What ends up happening more often is a sharper delineation that aligns ...oh, say Watertown NY to Islip, where it goes from cloud to broken to scattered to even clear about 40 miles worth.  I could see that setting up during mid day Sunday for a time. 

Or not - just a guess

It's not at all surprising that we're socked in given the inversion which is under H7.