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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. I agree trend isn't favorable. That said this weekend is a classic cold tuck situation so points even into northeastern MA may want to keep an eye on it; we know how these trend inside 48 hr...

Yes, Its going to snow, Especially up here.

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24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. I agree trend isn't favorable. That said this weekend is a classic cold tuck situation so points even into northeastern MA may want to keep an eye on it; we know how these trend inside 48 hr...

oh sure .. 

you know, it's kind of a game.  it's like ...yeeah, backing off, but, it could back off, be right in principle, but still error just enough on any detail associated with that kind of a tuck thing.

 either way, I do suspect that it's a four or five day climb out in terms of total modulation through the period, beginning 72 hours and going on from there... if it's not doing something in the first 18 hours, I think the book closes on it much.  we'll see. 

I was just looking at the synoptic overview/evolution on the operational Euro from D6 through 10 and there's a couple days in there that could turn out to be gems. Day 6 dawns with +4 or so C at 850, with 700 mb RH levels diving below 50%, on a NW flow ... low scooting through the GOM.  That's a pretty strong candidate for a "down slope dandy" (credit Scott I think..).  Then, D 8 looks spectacular with spine of surface ridging collocated over SNE, and 850s of +5 or +6 C would nudge 70 F ...talking zip clouds highish sun heat and wafting mild air to make that a top 10 if that panned as is... 

I don't think it will at this range...heh.  Sufficed it is to say, a different sort of tenor over some of these GFS Super Max prison sentences...

 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh sure .. 

you know, it's kind of a game.  it's like ...yeeah, backing off, but, it could back off, be right in principle, but still error just enough on any detail associated with that kind of a tuck thing.

 either way, I do suspect that it's a four or five day climb out in terms of total modulation through the period, beginning 72 hours and going on from there... if it's not doing something in the first 18 hours, I think the book closes on it much.  we'll see. 

I was just looking at the synoptic overview/evolution on the operational Euro from D6 through 10 and there's a couple days in there that could turn out to be gems. Day 6 dawns with +4 or so C at 850, with 700 mb RH levels diving below 50%, on a NW flow ... low scooting through the GOM.  That's a pretty strong candidate for a "down slope dandy" (credit Scott I think..).  Then, D 8 looks spectacular with spine of surface ridging collocated over SNE, and 850s of +5 or +6 C would nudge 70 F ...talking zip clouds highish sun heat and wafting mild air to make that a top 10 if that panned as is... 

I don't think it will at this range...heh.  Sufficed it is to say, a different sort of tenor over some of these GFS Super Max prison sentences...

 

 

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Hey, it's been fun gentlemen...some of the action this winter was great...was glad to have been able to participate and follow along.   Looking forward to a good winter next season starting in late November(maybe)...   Thanks again.  

 

Who knows..maybe we manage to get a tropical entity of some sort this year???  Or not lol.  

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What about our scintillating severe season?  

Hey, don't knock it.  I once had 20-30 seconds of SVR winds (gusted to 60, judging by tree damage), and another time had a few dozen 1/2" hailstones bouncing around.  How's that for a total thru 19 summers?  :P

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

It is the 30th anny of the April 1987 floods.

Which didn't effect Tolland massif at all.  ;)

The Kennebec at North Sidney ran 232,000 cfs in 1987, top flow I've found for a Maine river, more than 30% above #2, the St. John in 2008.  That K'bec gauge is only 48 years old, thus missed the floods of '36 and '53, also is missing 1994-2000 so missed the big June rain in 1998.  However, the 42 years on record have only that one year with more than 107,000 cfs.  Solid and persistent snowpack, a week of 50s and 60s, then 4-7" warm rain, followed by 22 ft above flood stage in Augusta and washing away of 1740s-vintage Fort Halifax in Winslow.

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not sure why the seasons in seasons crowd are depressed. This is right up their alley. 

The coc lovers, on the other hand, have hung themselves already. 

 

at least it's end of March/early April and not early May, that week of rain/cold last May 1st sucked...

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