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Model Mayhem VII

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Our condo unit with 100+ units has 1 car, mine. We literally ran lap after lap yesterday afternoon  all alone for skiers with some boarders going into the terrain parks. It's cold but dressed properly it's not an issue at all. March sun is still March sun. Sun burned, wind burned and feeling like a kid. Took a good fall yesterday lol ,not feeling like a kid at that time but all is well. Did 38 runs yesterday 32 Tues and 30 Monday, About 85 miles so far according to the ski tracker

 

 

 

Nice!  I should have learned skiing better in my 20s/30s...

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. Just another amateur in Kevin's arsenal of weather tweeters. 

He even used "mischief" in his original post like the Benny tweet did lol. At first glance youre thinking, "oh he must of looked at models this morning and came up with this conclusion himself." Then he totally redeemed himself by showing us how he came up with it. 

Such a clown but.... I like clowns. Makes the world more entertaining.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He even used "mischief" in his original post like the Benny tweet did lol. At first glance youre thinking, "oh he must of looked at models this morning and came up with this conclusion himself." Then he totally redeemed himself by showing us how he came up with it. 

Such a clown but.... I like clowns. Makes the world more entertaining.

Mischievous clowns are better than regular clowns. 

edit. It would be great if you "liked" my post. Would make me feel much better about myself.  Thanks in advance.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here 

 

That comes across as someone that really loves winter much more than the inevitability of the ensuing warm season - I mean...really: who should care, more importantly should "want" snow then?   Yet, it's like this 'one last gasp to reclaim a winter experience - phew.'  

It really is a bit like drug addictive behavior in a way.  "one last hit to get a fix"  haha before being strapped down for Opiode withdraw shock

I mean who knows what the real motivation is behind that tweet, but a tweet the demonstrated someone moving with the inevitability and acceptance of the times ...it might have read something like, "Spring appears to be right around the corner in the JMA products! Perhaps one last cool snap early April"  

 

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

really: who should care, more importantly should "want" snow then?   Yet, it's like this 'one last gasp to reclaim a winter experience - phew.'  

It really is a bit like drug addictive behavior in a way.  "one last hit to get a fix"  haha before being strapped down for Opiode withdraw shock

Seems like a bit of hyperbole to me - though given that it's in response to hyperbole, quite understandable.  That said, most of the weenies (and probably mets as well) not only like snow, but really like uncommon/abnormal wx.  Even at my snowy location, only 2 of 18 Aprils here have produced a snowfall greater than 4", so anything significant next month would fit the uncommon/abnormal criteria.  And with the exception of 2007, when Farmington measured 150% of the previous record for total April snow, the late-season white stuff really does help melt the stale old pack underneath.  Thus a 6"+ surprise early in the month (not out of the question here, given the models) would not only grant the so-called snow fix, but could hasten spring as well.  Win-win?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
56 minutes ago, tamarack said:

really: who should care, more importantly should "want" snow then?   Yet, it's like this 'one last gasp to reclaim a winter experience - phew.'  

It really is a bit like drug addictive behavior in a way.  "one last hit to get a fix"  haha before being strapped down for Opiode withdraw shock

Seems like a bit of hyperbole to me - though given that it's in response to hyperbole, quite understandable.  That said, most of the weenies (and probably mets as well) not only like snow, but really like uncommon/abnormal wx.  Even at my snowy location, only 2 of 18 Aprils here have produced a snowfall greater than 4", so anything significant next month would fit the uncommon/abnormal criteria.  And with the exception of 2007, when Farmington measured 150% of the previous record for total April snow, the late-season white stuff really does help melt the stale old pack underneath.  Thus a 6"+ surprise early in the month (not out of the question here, given the models) would not only grant the so-called snow fix, but could hasten spring as well.  Win-win?

I don't disagree with the bold part above, Tam'

In fact, you'll find that phenomenon across all walks of Natural sciences, from hobbyists, to practitioners, to theorists of any given scientific discipline.  It's actually part and parcel to the process of discovery and exploration, that physical boundaries be challenged.  That's why there is a multiple billion dollar man-made edifice in creation called the Hadron Collider:  smashing fundamental particles together to "see what happens" and falls out of the constellation tells us something about the system.  

It's probably innately born in all Humans really .. as part of our mental make up as a species, a natural curiosity driving us to go out and explore; more so, that innateness applies to all aspects of reality, really.  "Stop to smell the roses" is as much about appreciation as it is about discovery.  It's why our ancestors left Africa ...etc..etc. 

But, there is a different phenomenon happening here. Through the vicissitudes of 'weather' and climate people in society in general are affected (similar to S.A.D.). And this collection of return users really exposes a particular kind of mentality/emotive conditioning that is dependent on a particular type of experience - more over, it has become a crucible that concentrates the purity of that ilk.  So, if someone in here is looking for unbiased and "here-and-now" perspectives on matter, but instead encounter a raft of contents that is clearly biased/introspectively based upon that predisposed agenda ...that gets stressed.   

What you say is true, but it's also used as an excuse that enables. 

But ... hell, this is readily accessible to the public so ...so you get what you pay for.  And, it certainly goes both ways...  I'm with you on the big events though, if that's all it is - bucking the common model is fits right in with all this.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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36 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lol, the GFS is a parade of cold rainers.  One after another.

Also has W Maine skiing and snow mobiling until May with the base they will have.  Enjoy!

I'm kind of glad.  

Though it would be nice to have short sleeve weather with the smell of lilacs only interrupted by the buzzing sound of bumble bees ... I think it would be awesome if we could charge the water table enough to shut up the U.S. drought monitoring...  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'm seeing spring exerting its self in the thermal layout up down ...and left and right everywhere in recent runs.  

I've been holding back commenting on that, but last night 00z Euro operational run's panache in that matter makes it hard to ignore. 

The warm sector that is going to roll up through the OV and get (probably..) shunted just S of us through Saturday (we'll see), has been getting in situ warmer each cycle in the Euro. Another interesting aspect in that for me, is that tracing that air mass backward in time it's origin is also hotter per run, over western OK/western TX and siphoning up out of Old Mexico ...some 18 to 20 C at 850!   It probably would take a lot of tedium to prove, but that smacks as sun-processing/baking earth and air, and then having that air "jolt" the model when it initializes. 

Also, overall, the temperatures between the 00z hour and the 240 are showing a marked recession in the complexion too.  In fact more than mere figuratively the 850 mb, 0 C isotherm appears to really start the migration N across this particular time span.  

It still doesn't mean anomalies relative to either direction can't or won't take place.. Just the same, if this present air mass were the last hurrah of the geriatric winter ...I wouldn't be surprised.  

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tamarack

tamarack

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Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't disagree with the bold part above, Tam'

In fact, you'll find that phenomenon across all walks of Natural sciences, from hobbyists, to practitioners, to theorists of any given scientific discipline.  It's actually part and parcel to the process of discovery and exploration, that physical boundaries be challenged.  That's why there is a multiple billion dollar man-made edifice in creation called the Hadron Collider:  smashing fundamental particles together to "see what happens" and falls out of the constellation tells us something about the system.  

It's probably innately born in all Humans really .. as part of our mental make up as a species, a natural curiosity driving us to go out and explore; more so, that innateness applies to all aspects of reality, really.  "Stop to smell the roses" is as much about appreciation as it is about discovery.  It's why our ancestors left Africa ...etc..etc. 

But, there is a different phenomenon happening here. Through the vicissitudes of 'weather' and climate people in society in general are affected (similar to S.A.D.). And this collection of return users really exposes a particular kind of mentality/emotive conditioning that is dependent on a particular type of experience - more over, it has become a crucible that concentrates the purity of that ilk.  So, if someone in here is looking for unbiased and "here-and-now" perspectives on matter, but instead encounter a raft of contents that is clearly biased/introspectively based upon that predisposed agenda ...that gets stressed.   

What you say is true, but it's also used as an excuse that enables. 

But ... hell, this is readily accessible to the public so ...so you get what you pay for.  And, it certainly goes both ways...  I'm with you on the big events though, if that's all it is - bucking the common model is fits right in with all this.

Like this post, though I didn't punch the (IMO) silly button.  I don't always agree with your posts, sometimes don't even understand everything (psychology or meteorology), but I almost always learn something.  That's why I'm a member.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

Not buying into the way the 12z GFS around hr 78 has that perfectly positioned 1040 mb Quebec high fizzle and the weakening wave run well north through that dome of low level cold over New England. Also it's been a while since I've been able say this but this event looks well timed with favorable teleconnections -- neutral AO, - NAO, +PNA. I would think this should help sustain the blockiness/cold in southeast Canada and force earlier redevelopement under our latitude. 

12z GEFS also looks colder than the op.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Changing complexion in for this weekend continues on this Euro... nothing drastic, but not good news for the frozen/freezing languished.  The trend is to back off on those appeals. 

 

Yea. I agree trend isn't favorable. That said this weekend is a classic cold tuck situation so points even into northeastern MA may want to keep an eye on it; we know how these trend inside 48 hr...

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