Model Mayhem VII

[dryslot]

Jimmy Jack

[Greg]

15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

East...Will be SE Mass

This storm is much more basic then the last one.  The will not track through the CC Canal bank on it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...the short drive to work didn't unfreeze my windows so I couldn't get them to open-getting out of the car to activate gate for parking lot access ftl.

I'm happy with this winter....probably a B- right now.

I'm an inch below my seasonal forecast range, so one more event would be nice to seal verification.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

It's a typical Miller B SNE climo storm. Gets plowable back to MPM, but the best is east and south of there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, my back door is still unhinged after the abuse it took, needs until friday to recover. 

We watch out the window into the backyard though.

Your backdoor is usually pounded on weekends, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree with you on the mid level evolution (500 H) in principle.

I'm a little skeptical about the lower baroclinic tapestry for that weekend thing. 

To schools with that: 

-- The diabatic tsunamis has kicked in; March is a big differential month for that.  We can get away with a fetid polar air mass much easier on March 1 than we can the same air mass being assaulted by daily hemispheric insolation uptake at the end of the month.  That's true in February and April, too...but, March has the greatest difference from D1 to 31... Anyway, obviously you know this but my point is, I could see a light/moderate varying intensity fall rates we end up with light rain and parachutes do to decent mid level power spinning over top a diffused lower level baroclinicity...   It's one reason why early April 500 mb evolutions can look so delicious but then you look at the attending surface charts and you only have vague closures and ho-hum drabby weather. It's a timing game... where the cold needs to be fresh. It "looks" like we may not have that for this next ordeal.

-- This system is also not benefiting from a southern stream moisture advection.  If the baroclinic gradients end up week... lacking moisture limit things.  Again ... favors chilly rain and 'chutes, .. elevations may do better though -

Which is why I wouldn't be so quick to assume inexorable west trends with this one.

That is why I was so gung-ho on this last deal trending west...I remember I was telling Jerry that I had expected the trend to continue right when it began.

This one is n stream.

Diff. beast....and beware of last-minute EAST ticks this time.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Tip, I gave you the new thread so that you may edit the title as you see fit like the others. 

Heh, titling looks fine ... judging by the tempo of the operational runs... can't say I disagree with the subtitle anyway -

I don't like it, but no one asked - 

Huh. I have admit ..winter's star has set for me. I'm not enjoying this.  Once that sun comes back and beats brows with undeniable heat, it's obnoxious having it be 20.  

17, 18 ...19, 16 ... 17, as I wended my way through the country-side in route to work this morning.  When I first left the house I had that 1/4 to 1/2" white grissle of freezing drizzle and snow grains caked ... it was arduous to scrape to the point where I threw hands and got several pans of hot water.. Zap!  Felt vengefully satisfying ...until, ...oops.  10 minutes down the road my wiper blades were locked. I could hear the motor clicking but the windshield was at that time a dust/mist collector like an environmental study.  Problem was exacerbated because these roads out here were horribly managed (imho) by DPW. We had one storm f'n people - you can't plow the banks back?  I think that was bs - 

As it were...I really didn't feel comfortable pulling over on highways to fix the blades...so, I suffered in partial light shattered blindness the whole way.. 

And I'm like ... f this man.  Let's rip this band-aid off and flip the script.  I love my summers and out door activities ...and yes, equally embrace the Meteorological phenomenon of the warm season (regardless of any unfair snow obsessors that try to spin and downplay it to justify/council themselves out of their own anguish). 

I admit I am not impervious to sensing the solar light and having that modulate my mood.  I just don't have S.A.D. per se -  For me, a rock-and-roll Meteorology during DJF (book ended years we are blessed) completely buries any "affected" aspect of the "A" in the S.A.D. for me. I get in fact giddy and excitable just like the rest of you guys when the model fantasies look like the actually have a chance in reality ... and so and so on.  But, when the sun angle increases and starts to real palpably illuminate with surplus irradiance, my "giddiness" gets more like ...'yeeah, okay; I guess.'   Druthers: if it has to storm .. I just hope it's real.

Now, we're looking at the pattern in the operational runs where the weakly positive PNA that is forecast to persist via their respective ensemble family's is being exaggerated, making me wonder if we're just going to end up with cold white-rain coastals that only accumulates on old snowbanks or in the mountains, and tedious/petty 'moral victories' are leveled at us which is really just a spring denial game.  Oh great! can't wait for that -

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Zeus said:

I recommend Gun Oil next time!

You know only like 3 people will get this, right?  

Couch available this weekend?  I'm kinda joking...but I need to see real snow.

[mahk_webstah]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's a typical Miller B SNE climo storm. Gets plowable back to MPM, but the best is east and south of there.

or given March climo it is more of an NNE thing, with an emphasis from Ray to Jeff

[Typhoon Tip]

Just off the top of my memory .. this evolution over the weekend reminds me a little of that surprise near the end of April in 1987... (least I think it was '87). 

Some places around Worcester got clocked pretty good with cold light rain that flipped to snow and pounded several hours one evening to the tune of almost a foot.  We had like 4-6" covering already once mowed green lawns in Acton where I lived at the time. I also remember seeing snow clumps resting upon partially unfurled sugar-maple leafs.

[weathafella]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just off the top of my memory .. this evolution over the weekend reminds me a little of that surprise near the end of April in 1987... (least I think it was '87). 

Some places around Worcester got clocked pretty good with cold light rain that flipped to snow and pounded several hours one evening to the tune of almost a foot.  We had like 4-6" covering already once mowed green lawns in Acton where I lived at the time. I also remember seeing snow clumps resting upon partially unfurled sugar-maple leafs.

I thought the weekend system most resembled 3/17-19, 1956.  I remember some incredible drifts with that one.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I thought the weekend system most resembled 3/17-19, 1956.  I remember some incredible drifts with that one.

Perhaps at mid-levels? 

I was taking into considerations air of potency arriving on a shallow trajectory ...and working over top of a marginal atmosphere.  In 1956, was there a better cold source? 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps at mid-levels? 

I was taking into considerations air of potency arriving on a shallow trajectory ...and working over top of a marginal atmosphere.  In 1956, was there a better cold source? 

The Friday pulse was a quick hitting 4-6 followed by a quiet Saturday.  Sunday was above freezing with flurries to 1-2 in the forecast Sunday morning.  By Sunday night we had a gathering blizzard which raged into Monday.

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, titling looks fine ... judging by the tempo of the operational runs... can't say I disagree with the subtitle anyway -

I don't like it, but no one asked - 

Huh. I have admit ..winter's star has set for me. I'm not enjoying this.  Once that sun comes back and beats brows with undeniable heat, it's obnoxious having it be 20.  

17, 18 ...19, 16 ... 17, as I wended my way through the country-side in route to work this morning.  When I first left the house I had that 1/4 to 1/2" white grissle of freezing drizzle and snow grains caked ... it was arduous to scrape to the point where I threw hands and got several pans of hot water.. Zap!  Felt vengefully satisfying ...until, ...oops.  10 minutes down the road my wiper blades were locked. I could hear the motor clicking but the windshield was at that time a dust/mist collector like an environmental study.  Problem was exacerbated because these roads out here were horribly managed (imho) by DPW. We had one storm f'n people - you can't plow the banks back?  I think that was bs - 

As it were...I really didn't feel comfortable pulling over on highways to fix the blades...so, I suffered in partial light shattered blindness the whole way.. 

And I'm like ... f this man.  Let's rip this band-aid off and flip the script.  I love my summers and out door activities ...and yes, equally embrace the Meteorological phenomenon of the warm season (regardless of any unfair snow obsessors that try to spin and downplay it to justify/council themselves out of their own anguish). 

I admit I am not impervious to sensing the solar light and having that modulate my mood.  I just don't have S.A.D. per se -  For me, a rock-and-roll Meteorology during DJF (book ended years we are blessed) completely buries any "affected" aspect of the "A" in the S.A.D. for me. I get in fact giddy and excitable just like the rest of you guys when the model fantasies look like the actually have a chance in reality ... and so and so on.  But, when the sun angle increases and starts to real palpably illuminate with surplus irradiance, my "giddiness" gets more like ...'yeeah, okay; I guess.'   Druthers: if it has to storm .. I just hope it's real.

Now, we're looking at the pattern in the operational runs where the weakly positive PNA that is forecast to persist via their respective ensemble family's is being exaggerated, making me wonder if we're just going to end up with cold white-rain coastals that only accumulates on old snowbanks or in the mountains, and tedious/petty 'moral victories' are leveled at us which is really just a spring denial game.  Oh great! can't wait for that -

 

Too funny Tip.  You've got a great way with words and I agree with your sentiment 100%.  As much as love snow and tracking storms, I'm definitely ready for some warmth.  If we have to 'put up' with a storm this weekend, I hope it's at least a decent one.  Might as well pad the totals if we're stuck with cold and storminess for the rest of the month.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm hoping we can get rid of this pattern to usher in our classic spring climo...I really prefer 44 and east winds while it is 70F in Rochester, NY over this winter snow nonesense. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Subtle shift in the GFS bringing the ULL further S than the 06z run.  Bit sharper on the trough too.

[metagraphica]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm hoping we can get rid of this pattern to usher in our classic spring climo...I really prefer 44 and east winds while it is 70F in Rochester, NY over this winter snow nonesense. 

Ahh...yes, Tip's favorite April weather.

[MJO812]

Very close to a good storm on the cmc. Miller b transfers south of NYC with some snow for NYC northward but a few inches for sne.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Very close to a good storm on the cmc. Miller b transfers south of NYC with some snow for NYC northward but a few inches for sne.

Yes, because cmc performed really really well for yesterday. 

[weathafella]

GFS has a great H7 track that suggests snow totals will be a lot higher potentially vs depicted around mby and still trending.

[Morch Madness]

Yeah that mid level look is pretty good

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes, because cmc performed really really well for yesterday. 

What does the CMC performance have to do with what it's actually showing.  His post was accurate that is close to a good sized storm.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What does the CMC performance have to do with what it's actually showing.  His post was accurate that is close to a good sized storm.

Gfs also has a few inches for parts of sne northward.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS has a great H7 track that suggests snow totals will be a lot higher potentially vs depicted around mby and still trending.

H5 looks good on the cmc. We just need more quicker phasing.

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Ahh...yes, Tip's favorite April weather.

Ha!  ...yeah, I think that attitude is a bit more pervasive than just me, though.  Just so long as we're discussing druthers in a model thread (hehe):

What Will's describing (for me) just starts a little earlier in March...not just in April. It's just that my hatred for all aspect of Nature, both animate and inanimate reaches an acme in that dreaded month.  It's really about a gradual process...first 10 days of March I can dig wintry threats a lot more than the last 10 days ...all the while, anticipation for summer internally grows weightier per passing day. 

We get good March years.

We get ungood March years. 

In terms of "dependability" ... yeeah, it's probably like 60 to 40 in favor of winter during the first half of the month, then... perhaps flipping that post the Ides ...kind of thing.   Come April?   f u.  

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm hoping we can get rid of this pattern to usher in our classic spring climo...I really prefer 44 and east winds while it is 70F in Rochester, NY over this winter snow nonesense. 

I lol'd.

[CapturedNature]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just off the top of my memory .. this evolution over the weekend reminds me a little of that surprise near the end of April in 1987... (least I think it was '87). 

Some places around Worcester got clocked pretty good with cold light rain that flipped to snow and pounded several hours one evening to the tune of almost a foot.  We had like 4-6" covering already once mowed green lawns in Acton where I lived at the time. I also remember seeing snow clumps resting upon partially unfurled sugar-maple leafs.

April 28, 1987.  That's still my last measurable snow with 4".  October 4th that year it snowed again.  That's my shortest window between latest and earliest snowfalls.

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET looks like it could do something crazy after 72

[ORH_wxman]

The April 1987 storm gave 17" to ORH while 25" fell in Princeton. I have a map I made of that storm on my home computer...I'll pull it up later. 

This storm actually does have the same kind of H5 look but obviously you need the clean organized moisture injection to have prolific amounts like '87. We're not in the same ballpark in even entertaining those yet. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What does the CMC performance have to do with what it's actually showing.  His post was accurate that is close to a good sized storm.

Because dry humping models that show snow  for your backyard is a win? when it just shat the bed with major leakage. My bad, I forgot this is model mayhem and not neccesarily a logical discussion of how we interpret said models. Carry on then.