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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My front is mostly grass, but back yard still a glacier. It's the tale of two sides of the street now. One side sipping cosmos and fertilizing, the other side glaciated until further notice.

Big gradient now forming near the 95/93 split around Dedham...on my way into work, there's pretty solid snow cover all through Needham...getting a few patches on sun torched scoured areas, but still probably 80-90% cover. By the time you pass the 93/95 split, it really tails off fast. Probably no more than 40% coverage all relegated to mostly shaded areas....still a glacier on the shaded side at work here, but open areas are pretty much gone unlike just 6 or 7 miles west.

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13 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Most survive a big gypsy moth infestation.  We lost few in the early 1980s.  I'm sure Tamarack has stats showing how many board feet of lumber and $$$ were lost, but I think in most residential areas tree loss was low.

Don't have the numbers, could find them if I weren't so lazy.  My experience with gypsy moth began in NNJ in the early 1970s, where serious mortality set in after 3 years' complete (or nearly so) defoliation.  There they ate everything but white ash, starting with white oaks, then red, then all the rest.  However, despite many dead trees, the forest remained relatively intact.  However, I track timber sales by the PA Bureau of Forestry (has to do with forest certification) and they have been marketing tens of thousands of cords of dead oak the past 2-3 years.  Some of it is due to gypsy moth, perhaps more due to a viral disease.

For the early 1980s episode, we only took note on our 400-mile (one way) trips to an allergy specialist in Lawrence; the St. John region had forest tent caterpillar, aka army worms, to turn the hardwood ridges brown.  However, I recall seeing almost no green between MHT and Milford, MA (brother lived there) except the ash.  Even the white pine and hemlock were eaten, and the latter would not survive even one year's complete strip.  The lesser 1990s outbreak led to some salvage harvest at our Pineland acreage (abuts GYX) but it was less than 100 cords - nice oak firewood, though.  In any case, another reason DIT should be careful what he wishes for is that when populations are high enough the critters de-leaf more than oak trees - maples, birches, hickories, you name it.

And now the 06z GFS comes up with two days of near-continuous snow early next week?  Seeing would be believing, but at least there's something interesting to weenie about.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big gradient now forming near the 95/93 split around Dedham...on my way into work, there's pretty solid snow cover all through Needham...getting a few patches on sun torched scoured areas, but still probably 80-90% cover. By the time you pass the 93/95 split, it really tails off fast. Probably no more than 40% coverage all relegated to mostly shaded areas....still a glacier on the shaded side at work here, but open areas are pretty much gone unlike just 6 or 7 miles west.

Vis satellite agrees. It's basically in wooded and shady spots now. But where it's covered...it's pretty dense and a good 3-4" of glacier. I will say my soccer field nearby still was covered and that's open.  Two days ago, it was Hingham and SE that had nothing. It was cool to be at the end of Hull and actually see no snow where Hingham was, but look up the coast to Weymouth and Quincy and you could see the coverage. Dedham and just N and W held onto snow much longer. Even the guy I know in Randolph had 8.5" in that storm. Longitude certainly mattered when you got south of Boston.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..not angry Berg..I had a good winter here..65 plus inches is darn good.   I'll gear up for next year.  Bring on the nice weather 50's and 60's.

65"? Did I miss a storm then cuz im at 50" or thereabouts.

Anyway, dont mean to derail model thread yet again. 

gfs is exactly who we thought it was. A terrible early spring run. days and days of delaying the coc.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought you like a cold and damp spring. Enjoy. 

Well later April and May is what I was referring too. But ground turning brown in late march with a 36F rain really doesn't get my juices going. That's a pretty cold low level push coming in. Might as well make it interesting, unless people like to slowly let carbon monoxide overtake their bodies and hope for a cold rain.

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