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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He had a terrible winter. That happens when you follow weenie mets who call for mega nao blocking everytime they see higher heights over Greenland on the 384hr op gfs. 

This winter wasn't terrible

Over 30 inches of snow

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3 hours ago, Hazey said:

Any warm ups in sight? Would be nice to get some ridging in here. Just some snow in the woods I'd like melted off so I can get my path cut to the lake

In Halifax, Nova Scotia ?

...yeah, probably around June 3rd -

j/k..  

Relative to your climatology for late March, I wouldn't venture to guess. But, down this way, as is typically the case, we could flip pretty dramatically either direction in this pattern.

We have a 'curved' flow type, with lots of undulations modeled, ...neither of which is appreciably deep or tall (trough and ridges) but, can direct temperature anomalies nonetheless.

Toward the end of this week ... the models are unilaterally agreeing that the SE ridge will re-exert (or continue to exert), but not hugely so.  Enough that the wave train rides NW of New England. Not sure what that will mean for NS (up your way) but for us, we could end up either very balmy for late Friday through early Sunday, ...or, we could have a polar high originating over southern/SE Canada due to migrating confluence up that way, ... then we wedge out and BD down to D.C..  The former would result in 60 + F conditions down our way on Saturday, with more of a standard west-east oriented fropa bringing us back to reality late in the weekend.  Or, the latter would give just cause in putting one's home on the market and fleeing the mirth killer climatology that offers up more ways than one to ruin late March through early May.

Just taking the models as is... it's probably a painfully slow seasonal recovery week.  You have gaining sun angles (tomorrow is the first day of spring!) and that can off-set bite episodes and help whittle back snow pack and start melting the edges around ponds and lakes that aren't already hypothermic death traps ...but there's no indication that I'm seeing that offers huge warm departures.

This is the time of year of "fake warmth" ... It's like if your front door faces south on a sunny day at 41 F, with calm winds...circa 1:45 pm, the air shimmers slightly when you step out and peer around at the brilliance finally bright enough to actually make you squint a little. That air mass in that pocket belies the 41 F by a goodly margin.  You'd think it's 66 or something.   The sun hits the 4:30 angle, and the super-adiabatic parcel exchanges do manage to cook up a breeze, and then your reminded that it might have nicked 43 F but it's still chilly.  7 pm and it's 32 F with frost glistening on car tops. 

Of course, that cold shot on Wednesday trumps everything...for 24 to 30 hours, that's pointless annoyance - egh. 

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37 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Meh. 
Does nothing for SNE, but good luck to the north.  Eventually climo is the factor.

Normals akin to around 11/20 at that point but obviously heading rapidly in the other direction.  

I'd bring in my Roy Orbison link but I'd want another week to go by at least.

 

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5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Normals akin to around 11/20 at that point but obviously heading rapidly in the other direction.  

I'd bring in my Roy Orbison link but I'd want another week to go by at least.

 

Hangin on for something akin to 10/29......oh man that would be epic

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