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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/26/2017 at 2:01 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Models trying to go apr 97 up here later this week. 

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That phase was in the GFS originally happening back SW in the OV/E. Lakes about ...4 or so days ago, but was lost, now returned but up your way.

I'm curious though - I don't recall 1997 being a 'phase' deal per se.  I thought that was just a trough that closed and maxed out like... with miraculously perfect timing. 

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  On 3/26/2017 at 2:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

That phase was in the GFS originally happening back SW in the OV/E. Lakes about ...4 or so days ago, but was lost, now returned but up your way.

I'm curious though - I don't recall 1997 being a 'phase' deal per se.  I thought that was just a trough that closed and maxed out like... with miraculously perfect timing. 

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This really isnt much of a phase overall.  Id call it more of anticyclonic wave break. Lighter spring flow with that geostrophically unstable ridge north of the lakes and a deep 500mb trough carving out to the east south of ns/nl.  Big closed central atlantic low is providing some blocking.  

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  On 3/26/2017 at 3:29 PM, weathafella said:

Yeah once that mixed it cleared as the euro intimated from 2 nights ago.

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Trend to less the significance of cold Thursday - let's hope it's right about that trend.. heh.

Folks, for any 1 in 100 spring enthusiast among us hiding from the seasonal inquisition ... my Forsythia stems are greening and the buds are swelling - hey, it's a start. Despite the cold March that's still happening.  interesting.

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  On 3/26/2017 at 3:50 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Trend to less the significance of cold Thursday - let's hope it's right about that trend.. heh.

Folks, for any 1 in 100 spring enthusiast among us hiding from the seasonal inquisition ... my Forsythia stems are greening and the buds are swelling - hey, it's a start. Despite the cold March that's still happening.  interesting.

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Today's actually not a bad day if you stay wind protected in the sun ☀️ in the similar to Labor Day sun angle.

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  On 3/26/2017 at 2:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

You hush....that's sacred ground right there.

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  On 3/26/2017 at 2:14 PM, CoastalWx said:

Since this time of year literally depresses me...I was just looking at my old pics from that storm. :(

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Definitely sacred ground... I was doing the same... unfortunately my meteorological experience was extremely limited back then and it was before everything was captured digitally

You or someone should start a thread for the approaching 20th anniversary... any archived model runs, AFDs, charts, radar images,  video, photos...

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  On 3/26/2017 at 4:44 PM, wxsniss said:

 

 

Definitely sacred ground... I was doing the same... unfortunately my meteorological experience was extremely limited back then and it was before everything was captured digitally

You or someone should start a thread for the approaching 20th anniversary... any archived model runs, AFDs, charts, radar images,  video, photos...

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Mike Ekster or Arnold214 as he's known now, posted a GIF of the radar loop. I have it saved somewhere. I think it may have been in Ray's thread from 2015? Either myself or someone else will start a thread on the 20th anniversary. 

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  On 3/26/2017 at 6:50 PM, Hazey said:


Might be sloppy for you. Gander looks to take it on the chin. Close for YYT.

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Shes fine.   Models like to warm us on a northeasterly in the medium range too quickly under precip and high vvs.  Thursday is a bit sloppy but then she goes to town thursday night thru sat morning.  

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  On 3/26/2017 at 9:49 PM, dryslot said:

Oh it's still possible, Had 2" Friday we let that melt, 2-4" possibly tonight into Monday we will let that one go too, Something 6" or more we would probably have to clear though.

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I didn't clear after the last one, though my home in Waterboro is merely part-time.  Still about 4" of concrete on the driveway.  It'll go soon enough

 

*Edit to clarify - did not clear after the last blizzard.  Just a path.  Too fooking lazy and old

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