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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I saw an early AM met post that had Euro keeping even HVN snow .. I forget what he said thermals were , but it was borderline there

Below zero throughout the layer in HVN for the Euro. But that is the only model in the world that is that cold. It was on an island. It will be wrong. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

At 18z it has the -4 isotherm over the pike. -2 over TOL but 0c is still offshore to the south. Looks like by 00z it gets the cape and maybe even scooters digs. 

That's not too bad. What did it have over NYC for 12z? The freakin NAM brings IP up to near here and IZG.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Hammer has dropped here. Vis down to maybe 1/8, 1/10 mile. Beautiful dendrites. Hope we can hold onto this for an hour or two. Maybe salvage a ten spot.

I think we def can, sleet line is nearly stationary along the north shore, may punch north all of sudden, but we might get lucky. Major bust for NYC and LI, feel bad for them.

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I think we def can, sleet line is nearly stationary along the north shore, may punch north all of sudden, but we might get lucky. Major bust for NYC and LI, feel bad for them.

Lots of obs out of NY thread of heavy snow in NYC. Some mixing, but sounds like washing out. 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Take it down by 1-3"? I dunno if I'm that confident that mixing will happen in ORH at 19z vs 21z...are you? I'd keep my range fairly wide....like 10-16" or something. That should cover a 2 hour wiggle room for mixing. 

He doesn't understand the concept of ranges.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's not too bad. What did it have over NYC for 12z? The freakin NAM brings IP up to near here and IZG.

Looks like about -5. Not sure what the verification is. I think the euro is too cold but a big question is how much and where does it translate. 

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