CapturedNature Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 46 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Sounds like you waited to long. I was on that snow at about 2:30 Tuesday knowing that I would not get much more, and the light rain was falling. 2 hours before it was pure fluff, when I started it was already heavy, and by the time I was finished it was much heavier. I went out about the same time and was able to slice right through it. I had some more clearing yesterday and I was glad I did what I did when I did. 42 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I did, but it was on purpose. The town didn't plow my street at all during the storm. So instead of doing my driving with the blower and then having to go out again the following morning and do the end of it all over again, i decided to wait. Didn't think it was going to be THAT bad. The key to avoid having a giant mountain at the end of the driveway twice is to clear the area in front of your driveway and then to the left of it. That way when the plow comes, it leaves all the snow it would normally leave in your driveway there. I've been doing that for years and never have more than a few inches across my drive way. I did that Tuesday and was able to just drive out in the morning and clear the little bit that was left when I came home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was more than 50. To get such extensive snappage, I'm thinking that was probably pushing 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: To get such extensive snappage, I'm thinking that was probably pushing 70? Yeah no doubt. I mean sure maybe the trees aren't used to that wind..but that is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Any word near centerharbor Eek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Any word near centerharbor Eek? I haven't seen any photos or chatter from that area. NHEC says 18% of Center Harbor is still without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 As far as this storm goes, I think a tip of the cap to the mesos is in order. They did pretty well. This may have been a storm that played into their bias of tucking in low pressure close to the coast. Many times it's tough to buy the non hydrostatic models, but when we start seeing global shifts to the west..perhaps we take them more seriously. Between the nature of these srn events, complicated s/w interactions, and baroclinic processes with intense thermal gradients...this may have been their storm. We have seen it before when they go too far west like many of the 2011 winter events...but I guess you need to incorporate d/DT of model trends here. That may be just as valuable as the actual solutions when conveying the risks to the forecast such as ptype. I didn't notice a ton of convection, but I have noticed these storms that develop right near cstl NC along the thermal gradients seem to work in their favor. I also think the old met commandments of 700 lows to our west and forecasting 2' of snow need to be considered. You probably would have made a decent forecast just on that. I did notice on the models that the lift did shift below the DGZ and become intense. This is probably why we had 2" of 7:1 snow. The DGZ lifted up and dried out and the lift become super intense in the 850-700 zone. I was sort of in and out of following this event, but that's just a few things I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I can't believe how the pack is pure cement. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it. Up here it wasn't wet but had the texture of beach sand, It was a b**ch to clean and heard that from many that plow for a living that they got stuck numerous times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 It's pretty amazing to still have blowing snow two days after a March storm. Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Yesterday was the toughest cleanup I've had in 63 years. I tried going out Tuesday around 4 and again about 6 but the wind was simply blowing too hard to do anything safely. Our driveway is 200 yards long through choke cherry trees and oaks. We had a number of branches down. It took me over 5 hours to do a job that normally takes a little over an hour.... my back is reminding me of that today. Thickest ice crust ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Hazey said: I just went through gusts to 68mph the other night and barely saw a twig broken. You got sally trees...lol I'm wondering if a few of those trees aren't sick or blighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Ski heaven man. Looks like that Vday 7 analog was pretty good It was freakishly good at my place: Feb. 14, 2007....16....3....1.45"...13.0"....21" (Was 9" the day before.) Feb. 15, 2007....17....1....0.35"....2.5".....21" Mar. 14, 2017....22....7....1.90"...14.0"....33" (Was 22" the day before.) Mar. 15, 2017....31...16...0.22......1.5"....33" Precisely the same snow, almost the same for each day, both were low ratio, and the temp difference is entirely due to the season. The two Feb. days averaged -7.5F compared to my averages; the two in March, -9.1F. VD-07 was windy, but probably 10 mph less so than this week's storm. I bet NH could probably eliminate like 95% of their winter time outages by culling the white pine population entirely. Good for blowdown, not so much for ice. In the 1/98 catastrophe, the worst breakage was in hardwoods, and much the worse damage to utilities. Hardwoods often grow with a lean as they seek the best sunlight. They also have upward reaching branches (unless they're pin oak) so that ice bending actually increases the available surface for accretion. Pines, like all conifers, grow away from gravity, thus straight up unless tipped by damage or soil movement. Their branches are horizontal (pines) or somewhat downward (spruce and fir), so bending lowers their exposure to accretion. White pines may have some branches pointing upward. Around our Gardiner home, those branches were pretty much destroyed in '98, while the normal-angle limbs were mostly retained. I don't recall seeing a single white pine that snapped completely, just loads of limb loss, sometimes in a cascade as upper limbs failed and then cleaned off the ones below. I saw many hardwoods with bole failure, just like breaking a pencil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 hours ago, MetHerb said: I went out about the same time and was able to slice right through it. I had some more clearing yesterday and I was glad I did what I did when I did. The key to avoid having a giant mountain at the end of the driveway twice is to clear the area in front of your driveway and then to the left of it. That way when the plow comes, it leaves all the snow it would normally leave in your driveway there. I've been doing that for years and never have more than a few inches across my drive way. I did that Tuesday and was able to just drive out in the morning and clear the little bit that was left when I came home. Yup. I was just telling someone about this today. The key is getting there before the plow does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: I take it you don't have white pine there? It's sometimes hard to believe they ever live long enough to reach the enormous sizes that they get to. I bet NH could probably eliminate like 95% of their winter time outages by culling the white pine population entirely. But they make epic roaring in the winter, and pleasant swooshing in the summer, so I love them. Some serious damage. Do you know how widespread that was, confined to one small area or spread out around the region? White Pines are awesome. Love that sound in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm so pissed....I had that band JUST too far east. You busted pretty badly like the rest of us. Your 12-20" in E LI verified as 1-3"; even NYC only had 8" which was in the 18-24" on your map. BOS was more like 8-12", not 12-20"... No one realized how far west this would get. The best totals were from Binghamton to Utica along I-88. Mixing cut down everything for the major cities/coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, nzucker said: You busted pretty badly like the rest of us. Your 12-20" in E LI verified as 1-3"; even NYC only had 8" which was in the 18-24" on your map. BOS was more like 8-12", not 12-20"... No one realized how far west this would get. The best totals were from Binghamton to Utica along I-88. Mixing cut down everything for the major cities/coastal areas. You were giving the NYC weenies crap in the morning and didn't accept that west trend., hoping snow up past your socks. How'd that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 If someone took the Valentines day 07 analog and just beefed up snow just off the coast they would have nailed this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You were giving the NYC weenies crap in the morning and didn't accept that west trend., hoping snow up past your socks. How'd that work out? I ended up with 13-14" at my house in southern Westchester. Just a few miles north had 16-20". It wasn't a complete bust for areas from 96th Street north...I was working on 116th St yesterday and there was an easy 10". I admit I didn't see the second changeover happening. Once we flashed back to snow around 10am, I thought we would continue to pile it up instead of mixing more. Pretty much everyone forecasted too high amounts east and too low amounts west, from the NWS to DT to Ray. My point on the forum was that NYC weenies should not consider an 8-12" storm a bust in mid-March. This was the biggest March event since at least 2009, maybe 1993. People should appreciate what they are getting and realize it was still great for the time of year. My street in the Bronx has massive snowbanks and there has been zero melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 Another thing that (I feel) complicated matters was that the Rosby wave length of the western PNAP ridge and the east trough couplet was anomalously long. It was too long for the more ideal translation pathway of the mid level vortex features, ..which I am sure under some/certain circumstances that can transpire, but ...it may lend to questioning matters here. A lot of model cycles tried to evolve the 700 and 500's under Long Island, while the western N/A ridge axis was still slightly west of the MN/Dakotas climo favored region - that is a rarer configuration.. The GFS was closing the 500 mb surface farther NW than the other global runs pretty persistently (...as was the NAM). ...meanwhile, the GFS was attempting to maintain a deeper surface reflection unusually displaced SE of said features and their attending jet fields - one run was out near the benchmark with a central closed mid level axis centered over Watertown NY. It's vertical structure was going to have to be exceptionally tilted to maintain that. At the same time... there was a negative deviation cold air mass anomaly in place, and that wasn't helping storm track.. The models were charged with managing BL inhibition limiting cyclonic curvature, at the same time the q-v forcing associated with jet structures passed over and west of that lower level cold denser air. Somewhat of a tilted system was likely to happen - tilted systems have weaker banding and more shredding. Throw in an anomalous southern PWAT transport and convection and it was a powdered bust just at water - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 hours ago, MetHerb said: I went out about the same time and was able to slice right through it. I had some more clearing yesterday and I was glad I did what I did when I did. The key to avoid having a giant mountain at the end of the driveway twice is to clear the area in front of your driveway and then to the left of it. That way when the plow comes, it leaves all the snow it would normally leave in your driveway there. I've been doing that for years and never have more than a few inches across my drive way. I did that Tuesday and was able to just drive out in the morning and clear the little bit that was left when I came home. I've thought about that before and even done it...sounds good in theory but never seems to actually work. The plow just accumulates all the snow from the whole street run and still manages to push it up against the driveway, i would have to do a ton of clearing in the street for it to work, and i live in a coldesac so you never know which way the plow is going to come from or push the snow to. I've tried it...but thanks for the tip though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Much less snow at my parents house. There was a noticeable difference SE of Hanover. A lot of the snow is washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Much less snow at my parents house. There was a noticeable difference SE of Hanover. A lot of the snow is washed away. Temps spiked pretty warm there I'd bet, which did a number on the snow down there...the low traveled over SE MA, so there was some weak warm sectoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I was driving around the lower Valley today and nobody down there should be bitching about this storm. There is easily more than the foot or so we had up in Greenfield. Westfield and Easthampton easily had 15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I was driving around the lower Valley today and nobody down there should be bitching about this storm. There is easily more than the foot or so we had up in Greenfield. Westfield and Easthampton easily had 15"+ Not as much from Northampton down to Springfield. Brattleboro seemed to have the same snow depth as my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Big, heavy, droopy and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: I've thought about that before and even done it...sounds good in theory but never seems to actually work. The plow just accumulates all the snow from the whole street run and still manages to push it up against the driveway, i would have to do a ton of clearing in the street for it to work, and i live in a coldesac so you never know which way the plow is going to come from or push the snow to. I've tried it...but thanks for the tip though You should try wearing long johns for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 A few more shots not far from Smuggs where 40"+ reports came in: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 33 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Big, heavy, droopy and white. i'd love to see a time lapse on that especially if someone opens that door and a massive slide hits them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Temps spiked pretty warm there I'd bet, which did a number on the snow down there...the low traveled over SE MA, so there was some weak warm sectoring. Yeah probably it. They had a monsoon at the height of it. Lots of grass showing where the sun hit it vs home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Oh look its dumping at Stowe again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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