The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time

[Organizing Low]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I know I was discussing quebec with organizing low earlier.  Quite the gradient near the death band just south of downtown Montreal. 

 

 

 

1. SNOWFALL SUMMARY IN CENTIMETRES

 

 

 

* LAURENTIANS: 15 TO 25

 

* LACHUTE-ST-JEROME: 45 (OKA)

 

* MONT-TREMBLANT: 12 TO 15

 

* LANAUDIERE: 10 TO 20 IN THE EAST, 40 IN REPENTIGY

 

* MONTREAL/LAVAL 38 (PET AIRPORT), 47 (DOWNTOWN), 73 (SAINT-HUBERT),

 

68 (BELOEIL)

 

* VAUDREUIL/RICHELIEU VALLEY: 50 TO 75

 

* DRUMMONDVILLE-BOIS-FRANCS: 60 TO 70

 

* EASTERN TOWNSHIPS: 35 TO 60

 

* QUEBEC CITY: 30-50

 

* CHARLEVOIX: 40 (MASSIF)

 

* MAURICIE: 15 TO 20

 

* LAURENTIANS WILDLIFE RESERVE: 34

 

* SAGUENAY-EAST (MONT-EDOUARD): 30

 

* TEMISCOUATA: OVER 30

 

* KAMOURASKA-RIMOUSKI: 16 TO 20

 

* GASPE PENINSULA: 20

 

* GASPESIE PROVINCIAL PARK: 18 TO 20

 

thanks for posting this, glad they got some reports out of the vaudreuil richelieu valley, thats the region i was interested in the most

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, JKEisMan said:

Point taken. The gradient in that area can be pretty dramatic. Anyway, long time lurker, first time poster.  Really enjoy the analysis and discussion on this board.

Agree. I say it often, WCT has a very tight gradient. You can go from 30" to 70" yearly avg in under 40 miles, say Norwalk to New Milford. Often times dxr is right on the edge of storms. This winter Has been the exception though, both the Dec swfe event and Feb mini blizz, this area was in the comfy zone at good lead times. Yesterday too, for like 7 days straight....then we know what happenned. But it has been a decent winter with two 14" events, ive hit my avg......would be nice to get into the mid 60s for a final but I dont see it happening

[eekuasepinniW]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What did you get in Feb and Mar 2001?

And I think we can pull off 30" if the banding pans out just right. 

The old Franklin COOP had 35" of snow on 4/12-13/1933 at 32-33F. He even added that it was "blue snow". I have no idea what that system was like. He had over 30" in Feb 69 too.

The 21" was the 2/5/01 storm.  The march storm I don't remember at all, so it was probably something big but not epic, like 15"

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I know I was discussing quebec with organizing low earlier.  Quite the gradient near the death band just south of downtown Montreal. 

 

 

 

1. SNOWFALL SUMMARY IN CENTIMETRES

 

 

 

* LAURENTIANS: 15 TO 25

 

* LACHUTE-ST-JEROME: 45 (OKA)

 

* MONT-TREMBLANT: 12 TO 15

 

* LANAUDIERE: 10 TO 20 IN THE EAST, 40 IN REPENTIGY

 

* MONTREAL/LAVAL 38 (PET AIRPORT), 47 (DOWNTOWN), 73 (SAINT-HUBERT),

 

68 (BELOEIL)

 

* VAUDREUIL/RICHELIEU VALLEY: 50 TO 75

 

* DRUMMONDVILLE-BOIS-FRANCS: 60 TO 70

 

* EASTERN TOWNSHIPS: 35 TO 60

 

* QUEBEC CITY: 30-50

 

* CHARLEVOIX: 40 (MASSIF)

 

* MAURICIE: 15 TO 20

 

* LAURENTIANS WILDLIFE RESERVE: 34

 

* SAGUENAY-EAST (MONT-EDOUARD): 30

 

* TEMISCOUATA: OVER 30

 

* KAMOURASKA-RIMOUSKI: 16 TO 20

 

* GASPE PENINSULA: 20

 

* GASPESIE PROVINCIAL PARK: 18 TO 20

 

The area between the border crossing at Highgate, VT and Montreal is so flat that I bet the drifting is tremendous. I should take a Ginx windblown snow tour up there. Lol

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some areas between ALB and BGM forecast areas got 35-40". That's probably the highest totals for synoptic snows. The northern greens will get the most overall if you include the upslope after the storm...but I usually consider that cheating for an actual storm total.  It's almost two events. It's like when SYR reported 43" for the Superstorm when a bunch of that was LES on the backside. I always heard that total referenced and they made it sound like it was the actual storm total from the coastal itself and not backside enhancement from lake. I remember when I actually found out like 20"+ was from lake effect, I felt misled, lol. It was deflating because I had always envisioned them under this synoptic death band that drops 40"+ and then found out that wasn't true. 

I agree with you.  I'll count it as a storm total because it really hasn't stopped snowing...its again 1"/hr at home, even if it only lasts a couple hours... but in the end, the synoptic scale snow was one thing (huge for the BTV area and Champlain Valley, plus mtns) and then the meso-scale snows (again huge for BTV and the western slopes into the Greens) are another.  Its not a good comparison to certain areas that don't see those meso-scale effects.  That is if you are trying to analyze the synoptic precipitation distribution.

[powderfreak]

The thaw is over.

[eekuasepinniW]

Credit: Eversource

[mreaves]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The thaw is over.

Didn't Ginx mention something about a second max snow depth in relation to a seasonal analog?

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

4seasons, I quoted you on here and posted my 14 inch total for Southington!  Yet you put the inflated 18.5 inch total from the NWS????  I'm wondering why?  I even commented on your post of that inflated amount and you responded.   But that bogus amount is in your report?  Just wondering why?

lot of reports lot on my mind... Just a mistake, seriously, I'll fix it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The thaw is over.

I think ive seem you show this before but I just noticed that 03-22 is avg peak depth, interesting. i would of thought around prez day and not the spring equinox. 

[OceanStWx]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Jesus...just got internet/cable back. Took me 7hrs to clear snow because I kept breaking shear pins...hadn't broken one all year until now. Had to shovel some to get the truck out to get more gas since I ran out. The mailbox got decapitated and I had to dig it out of a 4ft snowbank.

Fun times.

At least no chickens were harmed in the making of this storm.

3 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Warm.  My anemometer got 43mph from the relatively tame looking gusts earlier in the afternoon.  The wild gusts seemed to stay at tree-top height and only got measured as 20-25 mph along the waterfront.  The fact that Brian got 49 with his under-measuring equipment makes me feel pretty confident in saying 60-65mph.  

I couldn't get a window open in time to hear the gusts, so that's a bummer.  Volume is my preferred way to estimate wind, since cold white pine limbs don't move very much.  The twitter video that was posted earlier is pretty neat, that pine just looks like a statue tipping over.

I'll take my camera with me on the way to the dentist tomorrow morning.  

You will definitely be a missed blizzard event when the stats are finally tallied. 

[Ginx snewx]

55 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Didn't Ginx mention something about a second max snow depth in relation to a seasonal analog?

69,but that severe thaw will be tough to make up although with this pattern....

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that UCA (or maybe RME since UCA is decommissioned?) to BGM to BTV/PLB banding was amazing yesterday and last night. Took forever to finally fizzle. Much longer than model guidance had it. But that is one reason the deformation is always fun. Often models just underdo it in so many ways...intensity, duration, and width of coverage, etc. 

You mentioned QPF earlier in this thread. Take a look at QPF across the region and you'll see it play out that way. Underdone in the deformation band, overdone in the dry slot. But the actual absolute values were correct.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

48 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

lot of reports lot on my mind... Just a mistake, seriously, I'll fix it.

He is very demanding when he uses exclamations and multiple question marks. 

You did very well considering how deep of a nw push this made inside 24hrs and compared to all other mets I saw, your map verified the best in CT. 

Do you know where the new fairfield report was taken? 

[OceanStWx]

Also, does it appear OKX stepped in it with the forecast. 

Definitely some hysterics going through the NWS internal social media groups. While I do generally believe that the public (not you weenies) is not weather savvy, maybe there is a problem with our messaging if you can't convey that a storm is still dangerous even if you lower snow amounts. If we are supposed to be focusing on our decision support services, then we should be able to craft a message that tells users the storm is still a threat even though you went from 12-18 to 8-12, etc. 

I think we (NWS specifically) could have spared ourselves some grief by hanging onto watches longer. We had 36 hours lead time up here on our warnings. Great, it worked out for us, but I also was very confident that despite dry slot or mix (and we did flip to rain in areas) we could grab 6+ from the WCB. Our normal goal is like 12 to 24 hours. That's at least one more model cycle we're able to see before making a decision. And we could have seen the west trend was continuing. 

We're at a bit of a crossroads right now, where we are not pushing the forecast anymore. We're pushing the message. We need to stop being rip and readers to get the forecast out and start crafting the next social media post. We need to get back to solid science based forecasting. When the forecast headlines change, I need to trust people like Ryan to communicate those changes. Not to assume people will immediately think the storm is over. There will always be people who dumb things during bad weather, and unfortunately I think we're catering to that lowest common denominator. 

Ultimately WPC was right to drop snow amounts here, but I've seen plenty of times where they follow the model blend one run to only have to increase later when the blend shifts again. It's also my opinion that OKX should have just owned up to the forecast bust.

My hope is that we have a service assessment, and their findings include things like patience in issuing warnings and timely forecast updates. But my guess is that the spin will focus on DSS and messaging.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah. A lot of it was. It was impressive but I think the synoptic total was still "only" around 2 feet in SYR. I remember we examined the storm closely in college and when combing over the obs and data found that they had a bit of a gap in the snowfall and the LES round was pretty clearly demarcated by the NW winds and a resuming of heavy snow obs. 

 

The best synoptic snow in the superstorm actually ended up being a little bit east of SYR anyway in the Catskills and Poconos and then arcing north to areas near Lake placid and NW of Plattsburgh. But obviously it was still pretty sick. Even as far west as near ROC had 20"+ from synoptic. 

Going to be tough separating out synoptic from LES when you get both at the same time, holy heck no wonder Hartwick got 48

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I can't believe how the pack is pure cement. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Fixed.

[Roger Smith]

Apologies if this was posted earlier ...

(from BGM NWS)

...ALL TIME 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY... A 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL OCCURRED AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT FROM MARCH 14TH TO MARCH 15TH. A TOTAL OF 31.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL BETWEEN 3 AM ON THE 14TH TO 1 AM ON THE 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF 23 INCHES SET IN FEBRUARY 1961. OUR SEASONAL SNOWFALL NOW STANDS AT 127.7 INCHES WHICH IS 3.6 INCHES SHY OF THE 131.3 INCHES ALL TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL SET IN 1993-94. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO LAST WINTER WHERE ONLY 32 INCHES FELL FOR ENTIRE 2015-16 SNOW SEASON. THIS WAS A RECORD LOW SNOWFALL. NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT IS 83.4 INCHES. RECORDS AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT GO BACK TO 1951.

 

-------------------------------------------------------- (end of NWS release, back to my thoughts ...) -----------

(4.1" additional on 15th, storm total so far 35.3" since 31.2 fell on 14th. add 4.0" to above seasonal total too).

And with 30-40 inches on the ground in large parts of e NY, VT, 20-30 in hilly areas of w New England, would suggest that any opportunities for radiational cooling in entire region will max out ... could create record low temps whenever arctic air and clear skies present. 

 

 

 

 

 

[codfishsnowman]

18 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone heard from Codfisherman?

 

http://wwlp.com/2017/03/15/march-noreaster-one-of-the-biggest-snow-storms-ever-recorded-at-westover/

I had a foot tops, seven miles away, and all the reports around here on the pns are 12.2-14

ludlow, which is always high came in with 17

seems really suspicious but I can assure you I had ten inches less

[codfishsnowman]

15 hours ago, radarman said:

 

Great storm, but that's pretty suspect IMO.  I'm like 10 miles away and nowhere close to that total.

edit--- I will say I didn't wipe a snow board every 6 hours and the snow is wind packed. 

yeah that is crazy high....I am a bit farther south and it sometimes makes a few inches difference but that is ridiculous

A foot tops here

[codfishsnowman]

11 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

did you see this? What a ridiculous weenie map, shading for CT is wayyy off. BTW i am working in Middletown right now. I will be taking a measurement shortly, i know it will be slightly less than yesterday but you can get an idea, its probably around 10 here right now.

terrible, this is part of the problem 

actually a lot of the ct pns reports seem high, bdl too

 

[codfishsnowman]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Are they cherrypicking the high outliers to verify their CT forecast?

yes and I made reference to this before I got sick Monday Night

from reading the posts here, Hartford County, northern New Haven Cty seemed to do a few inches better than here, I can buy that no problem

there is so much inflation on that map Carter wants his job back

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

terrible, this is part of the problem 

actually a lot of the ct pns reports seem high, bdl too

That map was created Tuesday night, with only on hand reports (no CoCoRaHS, coop, etc.). So it's a smaller sample and each point is likely having a larger sphere of influence than it should otherwise. 

Now whether or not some reports are high is a different story. But at times that's all we have to go on until we get a report that contradicts.

[codfishsnowman]

9 hours ago, eyewall said:

Some pics from yesterday and then today:

 

 

awesome pictures

[bristolri_wx]

That NWS snowfall observation map seems accurate for the RI area, before it was compacted by sleet and rain.

[codfishsnowman]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some areas between ALB and BGM forecast areas got 35-40". That's probably the highest totals for synoptic snows. The northern greens will get the most overall if you include the upslope after the storm...but I usually consider that cheating for an actual storm total.  It's almost two events. It's like when SYR reported 43" for the Superstorm when a bunch of that was LES on the backside. I always heard that total referenced and they made it sound like it was the actual storm total from the coastal itself and not backside enhancement from lake. I remember when I actually found out like 20"+ was from lake effect, I felt misled, lol. It was deflating because I had always envisioned them under this synoptic death band that drops 40"+ and then found out that wasn't true. 

omg. I was ALWAYS suspicious of that total. So much bs and politics with weather and media

Agree 100 pct upslope and les being included in totals

[moneypitmike]

THose are great shots, eyewall.

[OceanStWx]

SUNY Stony Brook is working on an ensemble spread tool that basically tries to convey how anomalous ensemble spread is. 

They saw the 13.06z GEFS run had 3-4 mb NW of the mean low center. Seems small, but they claim they have rarely seen that type of spread at 36 hour lead time in their reforecasts. They estimate at least a 10-30 year return period for that kind of spread.

Basically Bruce Willis caution flags flying everywhere. 

[eyewall]

Thank you guys. Today I hope to get to more scenic locales to take a look.

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