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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Advisories for nyc

OKX pulling the plug on this one it seems.

 

000
FXUS61 KOKX 141204
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
804 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks from near the Mid Atlantic coast this
morning to southeastern Massachusetts by this evening, passing
near Montauk Point as it does so this afternoon. The storm then
tracks into Northern Maine tonight, then through the Canadian
Maritimes Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure moves through
the region Thursday and Friday. Another low pressure system may
affect the area Friday night through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Storm racing NNE faster than expected - pushing warmer air aloft
in faster than expected as well. Low is near Ocean City MD (just
inland) at 12z.

Based on this - have cancelled all winter headlines for
Long Island, except N Nassau. Have changed NYC, along with N
Nassau, Hudson and coastal SE CT to a winter weather advisory.
Converted interior SE CT, coastal SW CT, S Westchester and E
portions of NE NJ to a Winter Storm Warning. Blizzard warning
remains in effect elsewhere.
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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

dentrite 

would you be surprised if the major slug of the CCB falls as IP from ORH to BOS/BED between 19z and 22z

No...but that's still in the WCB. 

I just looked at the NAM H7 temps...holy torch. It's warmer than H85. Your sleet problem is because of the warm temps up at that level. Even if you don't go above 0C the nucleation is putrid. I'm beginning to think my ratios may end up in the 9-10:1 range with all snow while pushing 2.00" liquid.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

No...but that's still in the WCB. 

I just looked at the NAM H7 temps...holy torch. It's warmer than H85. Your sleet problem is because of the warm temps up at that level. Even if you don't go above 0C the nucleation is putrid. I'm beginning to think my ratios may end up in the 9-10:1 range with all snow while pushing 2.00" liquid.

The odds this will be a nuclear meltdown day for americanwx are increasing 

i'm sure weenies will find solace its the WCB pelting them (lol) but really is anyone in mass safe from the taint by 4pm?

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The odds this will be a nuclear meltdown day for americanwx are increasing 

i'm sure weenies will find solace its the WCB pelting them (lol) but really is anyone in mass safe from the taint by 4pm?

Guidance has been pretty consistent at sending taint to a lot of people by 20-21z. It's what happens between now and then that matters. That's where the 12-15" in 6 hours is coming from. 

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