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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Probably matured a little too soon for us to keep the deformation nearby. By the time it got to our area it had already thrown the best forcing for deformation well to the west. 

I was hoping we'd get another New Years type storm that rapidly went to town overhead, keep the best banding close by.

Yea, it was skunked.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always expected this to trend west, as I had w MA in the crosshairs since Friday night, but it ended up going even a bit more than I had anticipated. 

I thought there would be a bit more low level convergence back this way, too.

Blizzard of 2017: FINAL CALL.png

You were off slightly with the placement of the heavy, heavies but you were on top of it pretty good. Wiz was on top of it too. Good job

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Probably matured a little too soon for us to keep the deformation nearby. By the time it got to our area it had already thrown the best forcing for deformation well to the west. 

I was hoping we'd get another New Years type storm that rapidly went to town overhead, keep the best banding close by.

You think the 500mb low to the west south of BUF might have messed up some of the forcing?  Ryan had mentioned that the other day.  There isn't like your typical 700mb deformation wall over eny, it's a broad area of deformation and trowal stuff over the entire northeast. 

 

 

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted

Ray, I think you did pretty well..  Didnt Litchfield county, Torrington, et. al.  verify at 18+.  I figure if we got a foot here, Im sure they bested us by at least 6".. Ryan had 18-24 also for  that area.  You might have missed by a little in west hartford county, but didnt you nail Litchfield?  And didnt Danbury get to almost 18" ?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

One thing I have learned from this system is that you must not only take into account mid level track, and life cycle, but that the deformation expands outward from H7 as once the system matures.

I had never taken the latter into consideration, but I will now.

Had this went to town a bit sooner, Berkshires and w CT would have seen 30", as predicted. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a good storm. Definitely won't lose sleep over missing it, but a great March storm. The winds in the interior, seemed to really rock. Something not always the case. You wonder if the lack of true arctic in March helped allow the profiles to mix a bit unlike a similar setup earlier in winter. It's one of many things, but it may have helped tap that rocket LLJ.

Forecast soundings were hinting at that several days out. When you can mix to 925 in a winter storm, your winds should rock. Typically the WAA just creates the inversion to cap it all aloft, and we can never sniff that 925 mb region. 

Probably because at 12z, we had a residual mixed layer to 850 mb (small surface based inversion leftover). Even with WAA all day we still had a deep mixed layer working in our favor.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Forecast soundings were hinting at that several days out. When you can mix to 925 in a winter storm, your winds should rock. Typically the WAA just creates the inversion to cap it all aloft, and we can never sniff that 925 mb region. 

Probably because at 12z, we had a residual mixed layer to 850 mb (small surface based inversion leftover). Even with WAA all day we still had a deep mixed layer working in our favor.

Usually dendrite is 6F and snow not 23.   :lol:.   March FTW. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You think the 500mb low to the west south of BUF might have messed up some of the forcing?  Ryan had mentioned that the other day.  There isn't like your typical 700mb deformation wall over eny, it's a broad area of deformation and trowal stuff over the entire northeast. 

No doubt that strong upper low played a part. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Ray, I think you did pretty well..  Didnt Litchfield county, Torrington, et. al.  verify at 18+.  I figure if we got a foot here, Im sure they bested us by at least 6".. Ryan had 18-24 also for  that area.  You might have missed by a little in west hartford county, but didnt you nail Litchfield?  And didnt Danbury get to almost 18" ?

Had I taken into consideration Chris' point about the expanding deformation, I can honestly say that I would have placed death band right where it verified. 

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I missed about 2" when it tuned to rain from like 5-830, that's probably why I got 12".

Yeah no taint here when it started to taper off which put us over the edge. And it's definitely man snow which makes the 3.5''/hr I got at the peak even more impressive.

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted 
NEW YORK

...CLINTON COUNTY...
   MORRISONVILLE         32.0  1100 PM  3/14  BROADCAST MEDIA
   ALTONA                25.0  1122 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   KEESEVILLE            21.0   926 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   PLATTSBURGH           20.0  1003 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   2 NNE PLATTSBURGH     16.0   643 PM  3/14  BROADCAST MEDIA
   DANNEMORA             13.0   701 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   WEST CHAZY            10.0   612 PM  3/14  PUBLIC

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   LAKE PLACID           32.0  1121 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   KEENE                 30.0  1001 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   AU SABLE FORKS        30.0   845 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   WILMINGTON            24.0   807 PM  3/14  EMERGENCY MNGR
   ELIZABETHTOWN         20.0   808 PM  3/14  EMERGENCY MNGR
   2 NE KEENE VALLEY     18.0   514 PM  3/14  COCORAHS
   PORT HENRY            12.5   645 PM  3/14  PUBLIC

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   SARANAC LAKE          32.0  1001 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   GABRIELS              31.4   856 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   CHATEAUGAY            18.0   829 PM  3/14  PUBLIC
   MALONE                15.0   926 PM  3/14  PUBLIC

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BTV&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

We are at 13.1 but it has restarted after a lull this evening.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Looks like another 1-2" out there in the can. After I cleared the foot deep 6hr sample I didn't want to clear since I'd risk measuring old snow again...so I just stuck the can in the snow and let it collect whatever it manages to collect. The depth of the new snow is at 14". That's a few inches below the summation of my obs. Still accumulating with modest growth. 

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

So I just measured on Google Earth: when I woke up from my nap to roof rattling gusts I couldn't see the condos across the street. That's only 75 yards away. I thought it was longer than 100. So color me impressed with the day time blizzard.

Hah, you inspired me to do the same.  I had 100 yards estimated as well, turns out it's 71 yards.  It was totally not visible a few times today.

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Johnno

Johnno

Posted
Posted

Just measured a dense 16" here after the sleet and compaction, probably closer to 17 or 18" when it had fallen. Solid storm and memorable, would have loved those NY totals but their is always the next time. A- winter in my book after the double digit storm in Dec, Feb, and now March. Sucks we could not retain and string some solid snowcover winter weeks together but we move forward.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I have learned from this system is that you must not only take into account mid level track, and life cycle, but that the deformation expands outward from H7 as once the system matures.

I had never taken the latter into consideration, but I will now.

Had this went to town a bit sooner, Berkshires and w CT would have seen 30", as predicted. 

the heaviest snow right now is falling all the way back into eastern ontario/ottawa region   as the expansion was immense and impressive.....rare for a coastal storm to get heavy snow all the way back that way unless its a true runner up the hudson valley.

 

remarkable storm for sure.

reminiscent of 93, but on a smaller scale.

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