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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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21 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Banks and piles are impressive, down to 25F. High was 31.5 - we never mixed here but the snow was very wet. Closing in on 14". Still accumulating, I expect we pick up another 1" overnight.

IMG_2308.thumb.JPG.6de1832ce27d1271f44a90819a977e05.JPG

Yup, same here at about the same elevation on east side of ORH (Green Hill). Never turned to rain but we had really heavy snow-drizzle (snizzle) for hours. Accumulated to only an inch or so, but quite impressive. Great storm even if it didn't deliver 18"+. This "loser" was a winner in my book, especially because we never went over to rain.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Those guys in the Albany area and Eyewall can stop bitchin for good now

Heh...they still need like 8 more to get even.

 

This was a good ol' fashioned 1990s Nor' Easter...like I said earlier, reminded me a bit of March '94. You could have made an argument of calling it an anorexic '93 Superstorm. Those storms that used hit a huge swath of the northeast.

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL at more unnecessary school closings tomorrow 12-15 hrs after the storm is done....pansies.    (not here at least, 2 hr delay)

Still snowin and blowing here.   My district could not really do a 2 hour delay since there was already a half day scheduled.  Kids would have been there for one hour.  I would not be shocked if the other delays in my household turn into closings.  

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Heh...they still need like 8 more to get even.

 

This was a good ol' fashioned 1990s Nor' Easter...like I said earlier, reminded me a bit of March '94. You could have made an argument of calling it an anorexic '93 Superstorm. Those storms that used hit a huge swath of the northeast.

Will it be considered a KU though...

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Will and Scooter should start a post mortem on this event.  Saw my faith in models get shaken yet again

The models really weren't THAT bad...they did zero in on the flavor of this event (big WCB for SNE/NNE...deformation for NY State) eventually. I think it's just a good example of why we can't be rip and readers...models do a ton of the heavy lifting, but they have biases and if you can use the synoptics to your advantage, you can learn how to approach the model guidance without getting blindsided. The QPF was extremely prolific, but it was likely overdone a bit because of synoptics. Models tend to overdo QPF in the warm conveyor belt and underdo it in the CCB.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Heh...they still need like 8 more to get even.

 

This was a good ol' fashioned 1990s Nor' Easter...like I said earlier, reminded me a bit of March '94. You could have made an argument of calling it an anorexic '93 Superstorm. Those storms that used hit a huge swath of the northeast.

Dome in Utica collapsed 

IMG_p56vtl.jpg

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45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If that's not a blizzard I don't know what is really. 

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You gotta listen to the ten commandments of forecasting...thou shalt not forecast over 12" of snow when the H7 low goes through NY State....with maybe some minor exceptions...like this storm. But you still have to keep the commandment in the back of your mind and temper expectations even if you are going over a foot. I think 12-18 was ok too...that will end up being pretty solid for most of interior MA...even from pretty close to Boston and points west and northwest.

The mid levels were a huge red flag. And really forecasting more than 20" in any storm is a top 20 for most cities. That's not really that common, and really doesn't happen unless you double dip in the WCB and CCB.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The models really weren't THAT bad...they did zero in on the flavor of this event (big WCB for SNE/NNE...deformation for NY State) eventually. I think it's just a good example of why we can't be rip and readers...models do a ton of the heavy lifting, but they have biases and if you can use the synoptics to your advantage, you can learn how to approach the model guidance without getting blindsided. The QPF was extremely prolific, but it was likely overdone a bit because of synoptics. Models tend to overdo QPF in the warm conveyor belt and underdo it in the CCB.

Post mortem can simply start at QPF. Rip and reading QPF will get you into trouble just about every time.

One of the biggest biases out there is QPF in the dry slot. Always overdone.

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL at more unnecessary school closings tomorrow 12-15 hrs after the storm is done....pansies.    (not here at least, 2 hr delay)

Same for Brookline-2 hour delay.  That's perfect if you're a kid-sleep am xtra 2 hours and save an add on day.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If that's not a blizzard I don't know what is really. 

The mid levels were a huge red flag. And really forecasting more than 20" in any storm is a top 20 for most cities. That's not really that common, and really doesn't happen unless you double dip in the WCB and CCB.

 I see ECK reported TSSN, you got all WCB what was your highest report 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Checked all the PWS around the lake no couplets observed but serious wind especially for PWS

Might be downsloping off the Ossipees. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 I see ECK reported TSSN, you got all WCB what was your highest report 

Bridgton is reporting 20.7" but they are starting to seem like a weenie ruler, always the top total. But otherwise we've definitely got widespread 17-18"

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