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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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It's becoming too amped too quickly.  Warmth flooding ahead.  850 WAA is through the roof but that is really helping for some pockets of heavy snow.  Better hope the lows trend east (mesoananalysis though does not look good for this idea) otherwise sleet is moving pretty far into CT/RI within a few hours 

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09z RAP seems to have a decent handle on the warm tongue aloft. Shows sleet into NYC and pets of NNJ at 12z and then into extreme southern CT at 15z. It slows down between now and 15z but then it accelerates again after that as it has probably the southeastern 3/4ths of CT flipped over by 18z. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

09z RAP seems to have a decent handle on the warm tongue aloft. Shows sleet into NYC and pets of NNJ at 12z and then into extreme southern CT at 15z. It slows down between now and 15z but then it accelerates again after that as it has probably the southeastern 3/4ths of CT flipped over by 18z. 

Seems to favor more of a NAM track with sfc low?

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

09z RAP seems to have a decent handle on the warm tongue aloft. Shows sleet into NYC and pets of NNJ at 12z and then into extreme southern CT at 15z. It slows down between now and 15z but then it accelerates again after that as it has probably the southeastern 3/4ths of CT flipped over by 18z. 

That sounds like everything outside of Litchfield County.

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