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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm wondering if the early dryslot hurt them...maybe left behind some ugly dry layers that took a little bit to overcome...because even the areas that got a foot pretty close to BOS had a lot of 32-33F snow. Just speculating. What did BOS actually end up with?

About 6". 

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In many ways a perfect mid March storm.  Moments ago, went out brush off my car before my snowplow driver arrived.  Possibly a full foot of cement.  when I pushed the snow off the windshield, a perfect 10" slab of this cement slid in slow motion off the front hood of my car.  It happened so slowly that I reached for my pocket for the video opp, but I left the cellphone inside.

Nice, Juicy storm in any event.  

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think Boston proper and right at the coast got porked from boundary layer. But just inland made near a foot. That started to look that way yesterday. Otherwise Boston proper would have done 12" easily. But low pressure near NYC will furnace the layers below 850 easily. 

It was warmth aloft not boundary layer. Flake size went to crap then two plus hours of sleet

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

So last hour it appears all ASOS/AWOS sites in the GYX CWA were at 1/4SM or less. We take.

Also that 59 mph gust at PWM was legit. Some true roof rattlers here today.

Yup, 49 mph here, The house only creaks with gust in the 40's And she has creaked 3 times already.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Moderate snow with sleet mixing in, wasn't expecting that.  Nasty out right now.

Just finished (round 1) snowblowing.  Stuff is dense.  Cakelike.   The wind is disasterous to clear in.   I could see numerous school delays tomorrow due to that.   I'm not sure what my district will do because the kids had a half day with prof dev later scheduled

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I just got in from plowing my driveway and shoveling pathways. This stuff is like concrete here after the sleet and freezing rain. I got stuck turning around in the yard. It packed down like rock and ended up beaching my truck. So glad I gave up commercial plowing, this is the stuff that gets you stuck easy.

Anyway, based on what I measured earlier plus the snow we got after, I had around 13" before it got packed down. 

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think they were though - what do you mean?  Lost for what? 

The models had a tilted system ...well, all evidence contained and thus far, that's worked out. It's true that we have encountered complexities of that nature and we'll do so again. It's part of the game.  I think folks may have been attempting to redraft the synoptics in their head ..finding ways to get a better phased solution/hope of that sort of thing correcting in the closing hours or something.  I've noticed in the past though ...in dealing with the general public and the weather, that happens a lot?  People explain how things can correct toward more of what they or those like them, want, ...even spinning model run this or that toward that goal, and then... doe-eyed readers help feed-back and the next thing we know, folks are talked into believing a scenario is something its not.  

It's true that the runs sort of unraveled the better phased solution from last Friday (Euro), but ...technically, that was 4.5 at that temporal boundary, which I think is on the edge of it's wheelhouse scoring.  Maybe there was hang over from that awesome Euro run, and ever since ... this system was never so far away that it couldn't get back there - but didn't

 

As an example: the snow depictions of the 0z Euro (not just clown maps, the meteogram soundings + qpf) with 12 hours leadtime for Boston were about 200% reality. Maybe the synoptics were drawn correctly, but in this specific setup of a complex partial phase / tilted system / eroded antecedent airmass, it busted bad on what's happening on the ground. Definitely not it's best performance. And let's not bring in other locales... it was an absolute disaster for Philly.

I'm curious what guidance performed best. Looking at runs yesterday, I'm thinking RGEM ?

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Eyewall and the Champlain Valley is going to jack in this region I think.

They are the pivot point and its going to rot there.

That band came through and gave me 7" in 2 hours...I can't imagine what its been doing in the northern Champlain Valley lately.

It did look like the pivot point was going to be out your way for at least the last 24 hours. Even if you were denying it. ;)

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Eyewall and the Champlain Valley is going to jack in this region I think.

They are the pivot point and its going to rot there.

That band came through and gave me 7" in 2 hours...I can't imagine what its been doing in the northern Champlain Valley lately.

March14h_zpshvphlhlm.gif

We shall see. I hope this works but the deathband looked like this near the peak (I may have even missed peak because I had to work):

17240361_10104142792462609_2600773379816

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Where did you ski today? Magic?

No, went to Kmart because I have a pass there (I'm cheap). But honestly LOVE Magic and if I could afford a pass there I would buy one and split my skiing between the 2. Magic should do very very well from this. But from what I hear-and what I saw- K is in the jackpot zone. Tomorrow will be GOOD

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36 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Send me your final snowfall total when its all done or quote me and ill be doing a map later....see how bad I and everyone else busted :D

12" here Dylan. Picked up an additional inch since 3 pm. I will have a final total for you a little after 9 pm.

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Closing in on 13" though visibility has come way up as we are right on the edge of the mid-level dry slot. 

All of it fell in essentially 7 hours...but more than that it was 7" in 2 hours that really did it as that band moved through.

I figure we can maybe nickle and dime another 5" tonight and tomorrow for an 18" total.

IMG_52311_zpsovljzdxk.jpg

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