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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


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13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Will, is that snow going to swing through Worcester south later or we done? Im in a dry slot now, better than the slop I was getting.

Might get a little, but not expecting more than another inch or so.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These systems that are one massive front end dump typically short change you despite having 4-6 hrs of insane conditions. It comes to the wet bias models have from very strong low level warm air advection in combination with less lift, warmer and drier air in the DGZ. That's why many were doubting those high numbers that Noyes and others had. Just remember to always take the under on exorbitant amounts with these setups. 

Well Noyes numbers... stuck out like a rip read off a clown map from Sunday's guidance, was clearly ridiculous by the 0z suite Monday morning.
But we have seen heavy WAA produce a foot in 4-6 hours, and this system was widely discussed here as having that potential. Gulf connection, healthy PWATs, and almost all guidance showing exactly that.

Wiz did mention dry air in the DGZ and frontolysis, and I don't know if those were factors.

Let's not forget posters in eastern SNE who expressed concerns Sunday (me included) were dismissed as premature bridge jumpers.

Not trying to boast, this was a PITA system and it threw off pros at NWS on down. My own call to co-workers in Boston: 10-16 Sunday, changed to 8-12 Monday night, and still busted high. Thankfully there were still policy impacts of schools clinics etc closings to spare me the "meteorologists are terrible this was not 12-18 like they all promised".

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Well Noyes numbers... stuck out like a rip read off a clown map from Sunday's guidance, was clearly ridiculous by the 0z suite Monday morning.
But we have seen heavy WAA produce a foot in 4-6 hours, and this system was widely discussed here as having that potential. Gulf connection, healthy PWATs, and almost all guidance showing exactly that.

Wiz did mention dry air in the DGZ and frontolysis, and I don't know if those were factors.

Let's not forget posters in eastern SNE who expressed concerns Sunday (me included) were dismissed as premature bridge jumpers.

Not trying to boast, this was a PITA system and it threw off pros at NWS on down. My own call to co-workers in Boston: 10-16 Sunday, changed to 8-12 Monday night, and still busted high. Thankfully there were still policy impacts of schools clinics etc closings to spare me the "meteorologists are terrible this was not 12-18 like they all promised".

I think Boston proper and right at the coast got porked from boundary layer. But just inland made near a foot. That started to look that way yesterday. Otherwise Boston proper would have done 12" easily. But low pressure near NYC will furnace the layers below 850 easily. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think Boston proper and right at the coast got porked from boundary layer. But just inland made near a foot. That started to look that way yesterday. Otherwise Boston proper would have done 12" easily. But low pressure near NYC will furnace the layers below 850 easily. 

I'm wondering if the early dryslot hurt them...maybe left behind some ugly dry layers that took a little bit to overcome...because even the areas that got a foot pretty close to BOS had a lot of 32-33F snow. Just speculating. What did BOS actually end up with?

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm wondering if the early dryslot hurt them...maybe left behind some ugly dry layers that took a little bit to overcome...because even the areas that got a foot pretty close to BOS had a lot of 32-33F snow. Just speculating. What did BOS actually end up with?

Yeah it seems like the DGZ dried out and they had a couple of hours of crap snow. I'm sure that helped too. I didn't see what they got, they had 4.5" as of 1pm.

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2:25 of Blizzard Conditions at BOS - seems about right. LWM was the only BOX station to verify a blizzard.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
515 PM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017

...Evaluation of Blizzard Conditions for the March 17, 2017 Winter
Storm...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has reviewed the
observations from the winter storm that affected our region today.
We have determined that the only official reporting site that met
blizzard criteria was Lawrence, MA (LWM).

The definition of a blizzard is that falling and/or blowing snow
reduces visibility to below 1/4 mile along with sustained winds or
winds that frequently gust to 35 mph or more...and that these are
the predominant reported conditions for 3 consecutive hours.

When reviewing whether a particular observation location had
blizzard conditions, we counted visibilities equal to 1/4 mile since
that is often quite low for an automated visibility sensor to detect.

At Lawrence, MA (LWM)...blizzard criteria were met for 4 hours and
1 minute from 1154 AM to 355 PM.

At Boston, MA (BOS)...blizzard criteria were met for 2 hours and
25 minutes 1135 AM to 200 PM.

At Marshfield, MA (GHG)...there were some missing data. But it
appears that blizzard criteria were met for approximately 2 to 2.5
hours.

At Beverly, MA (BVY)...blizzard criteria were met for 1 hour and 31
minutes from 1253 PM to 224 PM. After a 21 minute gap, there was
another period of blizzard conditions from 245 PM to 315 PM. If that
period is counted, then criteria were met for 2 hours and 1 minute.

At Windsor Locks/Hartford, CT (BDL)...blizzard criteria were met for
1 hour and 55 minutes from 1205 PM to 200 PM.

At Worcester, MA (ORH), blizzard criteria were met for 1 hour and 51
minutes from 1254 PM to 245 PM. There were 25 additional minutes of
blizzard criteria, but with significant gaps from the continuous
period.

At Willimantic, CT (IJD), blizzard criteria were met, but very
sporadically and for less than 1 hour.

$$
FIELD


 
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