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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re #1 ...it depends on what aspect:  The models handled the advent of a system remarkably well...picking up on a storm way in advance and despite some arguable more or less impacting model cycle depictions, they persisted.  

If we want to get into details and particulars... like timing rain vs snow and amounts --- Oy yoi yoi.. Perhaps some of that ambiguity could have been cleared up by a pure phase.. We got into trouble with this guy because he wasn't really shaking hands between steams too well, and that sort of tilted the system and maybe for warm layers and dry-slots and other migraines.  

Re #2 ...probably should let the system truly wind down before assessing but ... yeah, it appears 1 to 1.5" should do it; perhaps half ?  I'm less than certain about the exact numbers and that's also yet to be determined.. It may be the source region for the southern component having a hefty PWAT source.  QPF is not a very good metric in atmospheric modeling though anyway?  It's actually not uncommon for x-y-z locations to bust high or low regardless of predictability of event. 

Re: #1 model failure: That's true. We were commenting what an incredible consensus there was for a significant coastal as far back as 4-5 days before.

But still, I feel like we've encountered complexities of a partial phase and tilted lows before... I'm surprised how lost guidance was even 12 hours before onset.

The one blockbuster solution we had (all-timer at least for eastern SNE, but really a huge hit for most on this forum) was Euro 12z Friday. It was a slow discombobulated downhill from there.

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In Concord MA, barely precipitating for last 15 minutes or so and what is faintly falling seems like a mix of snow, sleet, and some frozen stuff that's not quite graupel or sleet. The weather station says 31.4 degrees and it is windy. With compression from wet snow that's fallen the last couple of hours, eyeballing 7-9" on ground. Stuff is dense. Hopefully, we avoid any rain and I'm nordic skiing tomorrow!

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11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Re: #1 model failure: That's true. We were commenting what an incredible consensus there was for a significant coastal as far back as 4-5 days before.

But still, I feel like we've encountered complexities of a partial phase and tilted lows before... I'm surprised how lost guidance was even 12 hours before onset.

The one blockbuster solution we had (all-timer at least for eastern SNE, but really a huge hit for most on this forum) was Euro 12z Friday. It was a slow discombobulated downhill from there.

I don't think they were though - what do you mean?  Lost for what? 

The models had a tilted system ...well, all evidence contained and thus far, that's worked out. It's true that we have encountered complexities of that nature and we'll do so again. It's part of the game.  I think folks may have been attempting to redraft the synoptics in their head ..finding ways to get a better phased solution/hope of that sort of thing correcting in the closing hours or something.  I've noticed in the past though ...in dealing with the general public and the weather, that happens a lot?  People explain how things can correct toward more of what they or those like them, want, ...even spinning model run this or that toward that goal, and then... doe-eyed readers help feed-back and the next thing we know, folks are talked into believing a scenario is something its not.  

It's true that the runs sort of unraveled the better phased solution from last Friday (Euro), but ...technically, that was 4.5 at that temporal boundary, which I think is on the edge of it's wheelhouse scoring.  Maybe there was hang over from that awesome Euro run, and ever since ... this system was never so far away that it couldn't get back there - but didn't

 

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24 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Ended up with about 9.5". Very light rain for a while now.  1.5hrs to clear driveway.

Although not forecasted very great i can see that it was a tough one to do.

Looking ahead I hope we're not done down here for the season.

Yep 9.5 here, Euro gives us a 6 this weekend minimum and a foot SE of us, buy or sell?

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

23F SN

15.0" new ; 2.8" past hour

Still snowing surprisingly hard

I think compaction is starting here. Been snowing decently for a bit but still at 13.5''.  More mood snows than anything now.

 

Wish I could do a core because this stuff is dense.  

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2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Looking out over the deck I see dripping from the awning. 32.2/31

Yeah it's definitely cementing up so I think we're done with any real accumulation unless you account for weenie accumulation on a cleared board. No Merrimack Valley FU zone this time which was very welcomed. 

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