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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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Some thoughts as dry slot is almost here:

1) Was there a single model that had a good handle of this storm?

Euro: too cold in eastern SNE, was still showing 1 foot snow in Boston 0z last night 7 hours before start. Way too high on qpf in most of SNE.

RGEM: had rain all the way to Worcester

GFS: no

Maybe the Op NAM? Para-NAM seemed too cold.

 

2) Why were basically 100% of models way too high on qpf in most of SNE? I mean Euro was showing > 2" Philly-NYC-all of SNE last night. That was part of why forecasts busted way too high as we expected much better rates pre-changeover.

 

3) Boston basically had ~2-2.5 hours of heavy snow with decent snowgrowth beginning 11:30. NWS / TV and otherwise forecasts busted too high across the board, but it was close. The poor snow growth since 2pm and eventual changeover robbed us an additional 3-4 inches between 2-4pm.

 

4) Regarding the poor snowgrowth around 2-4pm... I expected much better from soundings... seems like good DGZ omega and saturation, plenty cold column. Here was 1hour RAP for 18z KBOS:

rap_2017031417_001_KBOS.thumb.png.1e88e9cef5e4d6dd641a7e44d8598c61.png

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1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

This is why many would still prefer the benchmark storm or just inside for a  track here in SNE.  These huggers tend to thump and slot after the WCB rips through if you are too close to the center. Should have been more leary of model qpf output. Maybe convective feedback? Deform action looks beautiful in Upstate/ CNY. I would take huge dendrites ripping with a light wind in deform heaven over this type of scenario today. I never usually materialize huge wind gusts or lose power here in the valley anyways. 

I recall several days back posting opines about the long wave, wave spacing issue modeled during this entire synoptic evolution, from the eastern Pacific across the breadth of N/A ... specifically that the ridge in the west was a bit too far west for ideology.

It's early for the fairest retrospect ... but, come tomorrow, I suspect my opinion won't have changed; what this system had going for it was a reasonably favorable lead side cold air mass... partially locked in place by some +PP up N (but not a lot either).  That helped feed back on preventing a surface track more west due to BL resistance... Probably that, and having the mid and upper morphology being as far E as it was (still less than ideal..) allowed for a snowier impact during this system's evolution.  

Still a lot of fun though -  

 

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18 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Looks like some 26-27" reports coming in West of ALB  in Delaware and Otsego Counties and they are still getting hit hard, so probably some isolated over 30" spots out there.

I had that band about 50mi to far to the east in NYS...damn.

I always expected this s streamer to trend west, until the end, but it went a bit further than I thought. 

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Nice storm in Merrimack Valley :)  still snowing pretty hard and we have over a foot of snow in Chelmsford.  Waiting for it to stop before we start snow blowing.  We won't reach the 18 inches they predicted, but it's still our biggest storm of the year.

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I recall several days back posting opines about the long wave, wave spacing issue modeled during this entire synoptic evolution, from the eastern Pacific across the breadth of N/A ... specifically that the ridge in the west was a bit too far west for ideology.

It's early for the fairest retrospect ... but, come tomorrow, I suspect my opinion won't have changed; what this system had going for it was a reasonably favorable lead side cold air mass... partially locked in place by some +PP up N (but not a lot either).  That helped feed back on preventing a surface track more west due to BL resistance... Probably that, and having the mid and upper morphology being as far E as it was (still less than ideal..) allowed for a snowier impact during this system's evolution.  

Still a lot of fun though -  

 

 

Actually was thinking about this last night... we were already around 30F in Boston last evening. Another sign that we were toast. Any "buffer" we would have had from that cold air mass 24 hours prior was squandered.

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