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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting ... 

I'm thinking this is about done...  80 some-odd percent of the event is now done and behind, and we vestige our way out going forward?

Radar returns are eased off considerably everywhere abeam of SNE latitudes and peering south, NYC switched over to sensitivity rad mode to pick up windy freezing mist and snizzle in that area ...I don't see much evidence of cooling cloud tops on IR, either... 

Also, we've really eased off the frequency of those monster wind gusts here in N. Middlesex Co.  We're still occasionally getting those, but we're getting increasingly long intervals between where the wind is very light.  

Looks like about 10" here ... maybe 11"  It's almost half way up the tire wells of my car. 

Prelim assessment:  this system failed to capture... The phase was never really that proficient...and about 4 days ago, the Euro had one run where it showed that much better, but since it's been a struggle; we've been dealing with cycle after cycle where the low was squirting out way ahead of the trialing N-stream closing low, and then stalling too far away to benefit (mechanically)... It wouldn't shock me if the storm is maxed(ing) as we speak - but we'll see. 

Solid moderate nor-easter (so far). 

 

It's also just another example of how many atmospheric mechanisms have to align just right to attain "epic" snow totals.  I'm sure some impressive totals will be coming out of upstate NY.  

I'm curios about the qpf fail by many models.  Many seemed overdone and a lot of us were quite skeptical about projected totals. 

I think snow growth hurt a bit here.   Still, my biggest storm in over 2 years just a bit of a kick in the jimmi for the WNE folks to fail on forecast totals.  Oh' well, hopefully get another 1-3" today/tonight.  

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's also just another example of how many atmospheric mechanisms have to align just right to attain "epic" snow totals.  I'm sure some impressive totals will be coming out of upstate NY.  

I'm curios about the qpf fail by many models.  Many seemed overdone and a lot of us were quite skeptical about projected totals. 

I think snow growth hurt a bit here.   Still, my biggest storm in over 2 years just a bit of a kick in the jimmi for the WNE folks to fail on forecast totals.  Oh' well, hopefully get another 1-3" today/tonight.  

I said 12-24" and anything over 12" will be acceptable, haha.  The 18-24" stuff is for the deform band pivot zone.

It is very very hard to get widespread 18"+ storm totals...eastern and central NY will do it.  My dad said 16-18" just south of Albany so far.

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's also just another example of how many atmospheric mechanisms have to align just right to attain "epic" snow totals.  I'm sure some impressive totals will be coming out of upstate NY.  

I'm curios about the qpf fail by many models.  Many seemed overdone and a lot of us were quite skeptical about projected totals. 

I think snow growth hurt a bit here.   Still, my biggest storm in over 2 years just a bit of a kick in the jimmi for the WNE folks to fail on forecast totals.  Oh' well, hopefully get another 1-3" today/tonight.  

Yep... Lots of stuff to roll up sleeves and analyze when all is said and done. 

It's not 'totally' over .. we still have some windiness to contend with and any errant gust can certainly ruin an evening here and there but that's getting lesser likely from this point forward.  Plus, with cold wrapping around folks should be weary or roads going to cake ice -  this was really pack snow here and adding brave traffic and dropping temps make that a bit of an issue. 

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51 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

This is why many would still prefer the benchmark storm or just inside for a  track here in SNE.  These huggers tend to thump and slot after the WCB rips through if you are too close to the center. Should have been more leary of model qpf output. Maybe convective feedback? Deform action looks beautiful in Upstate/ CNY. I would take huge dendrites ripping with a light wind in deform heaven over this type of scenario today. I never usually materialize huge wind gusts or lose power here in the valley anyways. 

well I thought with qpf just continuing to ramp up, the models were on to something plus a lot of talk about tons and tons of moisture being advected in from all directions so if the avg forecast here was 2.0 melted I shaved .5 off for a total of 1.5 at 9 or 10-1 ratio to expect 14-15 inches. I really didn't think that was unreasonable given all the reading, maps and week of watching this unfold. I had secretly hoped maybe "this was the one" for 2 feet but knew yesterday we would miss the ccb. Still if 2.0 had verified at 12-14-1, be pretty close(maybe the playing with fire with the sleet line,etc)

with all the talk of thundersnow, snow coming in like a wall and several hours of rates of 2-4 plus inches/hr forecast, I figured maybe this really was going to be a once in a lifetime wcb which if it had verified 12 to 24 inches though the megalopolis and all of ne upstate ny and pa and so on with the jp of 30 plus berks/hudson valley etc...

it had all of these things for some areas but not as widespread as most models forecast

never in all the years of winter storm tracking do I remember hearing about a system being so juiced or hours and hours of blinding snow, including 93,96,2013,2015 etc

first flakes at 130 am, 10 inches or so at 230 pm....do the math

best march storm here in dv since 2001 but at the end of the day for the hype, business shut downs and travel bans and all....meh

the only positive is seeing the crushing of upstate ny and interior portions of cne and nne that have in recent years have really taken it on the chin

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Back into whiteout conditions again.  Keep the dryline east of here!

Good news for up here...we are going to come real close to the dryslot.  Ideally it would get pretty close but not quite here.  That tends to bring some pretty heavy snows right on the edge of the dryslot sometimes.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Now there is a 16.0" report from Hubbardston.   Such BS

I wonder if there are reports submitted in busted events sometimes so that they can be used on the pns and news and twitter/facebook to mask the underachievement so to speak

most of the general public doesn't know any better but snow weenies do

almost like a conspiracy

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I said 12-24" and anything over 12" will be acceptable, haha.  The 18-24" stuff is for the deform band pivot zone.

It is very very hard to get widespread 18"+ storm totals...eastern and central NY will do it.  My dad said 16-18" just south of Albany so far.

Looks like some 26-27" reports coming in West of ALB  in Delaware and Otsego Counties and they are still getting hit hard, so probably some isolated over 30" spots out there.

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17 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Despite the very high winds roaring still, there is almost zero blowing snow now. Just what is still falling. I was expecting mostly powder but instead we have concrete. Very impressive plow piles already. The snow was also more uniform then I was expecting. Will measure in the yard later to double check my measurement but basically a foot OTG here if we don't get any additional.

Yep ... I'm right over here next to you in Ayer and echo ... there's almost not blowing snow despite the wind (which has even settled off noticeably over the last hour).   

The snow has gotten too wet to lift. 

Interestingly...we're still 30 F Nevertheless, the snow packs densely.  [EDIT: 32 F]

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