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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

Here's the Question - Is that line of Yellow / Orange / Red SNOW or the Sleet Line?  

 

Do remember as much as you stinking CT folks have had 4 storms in the past few years I can remember where you were under yellows/oranges, I can only remember 3 times in my life where I've been under it.  Only seen 4" per hour Twice ever.  Ever.  

2.5" here in 6 hours.  :blink:  

Sleet line is mainly offshore still or right on the coast...so anything north of that in RI and SE MA is snow...prob huge flakes and very heavy...you're about to get your 3-4 inches per hour very soon I think

 

 

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I dunno ... I've been fooled before in this sort of thin margin for error ordeals, before.  The technologies have a way of "lying," but the radar sequencing combined with satelliter channels give the "illusion" of this system being destined to run up through the middle of SNE ...slicing right through/over the cold air. 

It can...if the mid-levels are powerful enough.  We'll just have to see...  

Even if so, I suspect we have a mix/icing issue (who would have thunk) rather than a liquid one, once you get back west and N of I-95...  

It would have been nice if this thing (assuming so) actually phased and didn't give the mere impression of doing so...  

OT, but a thought struck me this morning ... perhaps this failure to phase thing/only partial in that regard, is related to the plaguing velocity surplus we've suffered in the general circulation medium of the hemisphere all winter.  It's hard to phase when the southern stream is barreling along ... it's like trying to shake someone's hand passing by in a car..  (metaphors). 

Anyway, lots of cold in place on land over SNE and it is back built on some +PP N ...so even if these mid levels go ahead and cut west they are likely to pull warm layers over top, but not down at the surface underneath that positive statically buoyant sounding of rich surface cold flowing S.  So you end up with kitchen sink Nor'easter.  

But it's early in the game and like I said... sometimes the tech kind of gives false allusions as to what is going on.  The 3-hrly pressure change does suggest bombogenesis is taking place just east of Jersey. 

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1 minute ago, Nikoss427 said:

Same here, it's a beauty. Hoping Ryan is wrong about the sleet later, otherwise I'll be shedding some tears as well.

Even if it makes it which is still up for debate with the models playing catch up.. 95% of what falls is snow. And it means get only be an hour or two and flips back to snow at end . We'll see how it shakes out. Both options on table 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sleet line is mainly offshore still or right on the coast...so anything north of that in RI and SE MA is snow...prob huge flakes and very heavy...you're about to get your 3-4 inches per hour very soon I think

 

 

He should jump up on the table , take his dungarees off and just start destroying the keyboard on the squeezebox. Playing like he's never played before 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno ... I've been fooled before in this sort of thing margin for error, before.  The technologies have a way of "lying," but the radar sequencing combined with satelliter channels give the "illusion" of this system being destined to run up through the middle of SNE ...slicing right through/over the cold air. 

It can...if the mid-levels are powerful enough.  We'll just have to see...  

Even if so, I suspect we have a mix/icing issue (who would have thunk) rather than a liquid one, once you get back west and N of I-95...  

It would have been nice if this thing (assuming so) actually phased and didn't give the mere impression of doing so...  

OT, but a thought struck me this morning ... perhaps this failure to phase thing/only partial in that regard, is related to the plaguing velocity surplus we've suffered in the general circulation medium of the hemisphere all winter.  It's hard to phase when the southern stream is barreling along ... it's like trying to shake someone's hand passing by in a car..  (metaphors). 

Anyway, lots of cold in place on land over SNE and it is back built on some +PP N ...so even if these mid levels go ahead and cut west they are likely to pull warm layers over top, but not down at the surface underneath that positive statically buoyant sounding of rich surface cold flowing S.  So you end up with kitchen sink Nor'easter.  

But it's early in the game and like I said... sometimes the tech kind of gives false allusions as to what is going on.  The 3-hrly pressure change does suggest bombogenesis is taking place just east of Jersey. 

Thanks for the great posts.  For the novice, do you mean that the prediction of a changeover the further north you get from 95 is overplayed?  Or, the opposite?  Thank you!

 

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Precipitation Type algorithms vary significantly for same HRRR runs on different guidance...

Weatherbell + TropicalWeather significantly colder than Pivotalweather, and reality seems somewhere in between specifically looking at DualPol for sleet line currently just kissing and stalled at south Mass coast.  Anyone know if these are known differences?

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Concord MA - moderate snow, 29 and approximately 1" on the ground. Trees beginning to stir with wind out of NNE. Hope we hang on to snow. Just want my local nordic ski center to open for another week or so and build base north for a strong spring skiing season in mountains!

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Best thing i can see is at least it pushed me to 50 on the season, otherwise a huge bust, glad i didnt go 15-25 or 16-24, but 12-20 is still pretty bad. All the shore will see less than 10. A foot or more will be confined to far interior and NW hills.

Extremely heavy sleet and wind, it looks painful out there.

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8 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Thanks for the great posts.  For the novice, do you mean that the prediction of a changeover the further north you get from 95 is overplayed?  Or, the opposite?  Thank you!

 

I'm not saying anything definite in that regard... In fact, quite the opposite of declarative:  I'm saying .. the tech channels give the allusion of mixing destiny with this thing ... but, am being careful to point out that these same tools can sometimes give faux impressions - because of that... I don't know.  

Right now, I'd say there is too much cold air to allow a "surface" low pressure to cut west of I-95, and that is the most confident.  But, that doesn't mean much for the mid level storm components - those features can track inland and over top.  You just end up with tilted systems that have more of a shredded look on radar with more variation in both ptypes and intensities. 

There's no black-or-white though, either - the result could be some version in between.   It'a a NOWCAST effort.

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