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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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30 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Visibility dropping in the Fenway and winds are solid so far. Flake size is tiny but that should improve as the banding on the south shore comes north. Not much accumulation so far - maybe 1/2"?

Dearth of Boston area posters speaks volumes

Still think 8-12 is reachable here. Right now snowgrowth is not good, but 11am-2pm will be critical if we have any shot at the higher amounts. This seems like a case of marginal snow vs. sleet soundings busting really badly on the Euro based on upstream obs, though we'll see how we do this afternoon.

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

3 to 4 feet, Armageddon? 

This is probably some of the heaviest snow i have ever seen in my life. Flakes bigger than half dollars, easily 4" per hour rates. Sleet mixes in then stops then comes back. 

Ha, good catch. Edited. Yea, intense stuff. If I can hold onto all flakes another 3hrs I don't see why I cant put up a 20 burger before the transition. 

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Dearth of Boston area posters speaks volumes

Still think 8-12 is reachable here. Right now snowgrowth is not good, but 11am-2pm will be critical if we have any shot at the higher amounts. This seems like a case of marginal snow vs. sleet soundings busting really badly on the Euro based on upstream obs, though we'll see how we do this afternoon.

Snow wasn't really supposed to pick up until 10-11am. Wind is starting to roar. Everything seems on schedule

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

Snow wasn't really supposed to pick up until 10-11am. Wind is starting to roar. Everything seems on schedule

 

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Dearth of Boston area posters speaks volumes

Still think 8-12 is reachable here. Right now snowgrowth is not good, but 11am-2pm will be critical if we have any shot at the higher amounts. This seems like a case of marginal snow vs. sleet soundings busting really badly on the Euro based on upstream obs, though we'll see how we do this afternoon.

Yeah I think we're on schedule - it's always been that timeframe where we were going to make up for lost time. I'm actually impressed by what we've seen so far this morning compared to what the HRRR was spitting out last night.

SN/SN+ now, secondary roads are starting to get covered.

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Just flipped to a mix, maybe get a little more as rates increase but don't have much hope. Maybe I'll get to 3"?  This storm has been a heartbreaker for many today, at least I got a front end thump of dissapointment a few days ago to set more realistic expectations.

 

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12z RAP and 12z NAM are actually in pretty close agreement for this neck of the woods...they both have a flip to pellets in the pike region around 4pm...perhaps as late as 5pm depending on rates as the warm layer is exceptionally thin...esp on the RAP at 21z.

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3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Snow wasn't really supposed to pick up until 10-11am. Wind is starting to roar. Everything seems on schedule

Oh I know the schedule... as I posted 11am-2pm is critical

Just expected more activity for a pseudo-weekend day

HRRR has been rock solid on not mixing Boston before 3-4pm... heaviest early afternoon, but that seems to be the coldest of guidance.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z RAP and 12z NAM are actually in pretty close agreement for this neck of the woods...they both have a flip to pellets in the pike region around 4pm...perhaps as late as 5pm depending on rates as the warm layer is exceptionally thin...esp on the RAP at 21z.

The way the rap has cooled..I'm highly skeptical it makes it to the pike. Storm has taken more NE heading last hour or so. We'll have to see what happens over the next few hours 

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I agree. I'm just in awe, the last time i saw flakes this big was Feb 01. I mean some are like the size of my palm, its insane. 3-4 rates with sleet mixing in and out.

Have you taken a measurement? Can't find my ruler, but eyeballing my patio furniture it looks like a solid 9 or so.

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Just now, wxsniss said:

Oh I know the schedule... as I posted 11am-2pm is critical

Just expected more activity for a pseudo-weekend day

HRRR has been rock solid on not mixing Boston before 3-4pm... heaviest early afternoon, but that seems to be the coldest of guidance.

RAP is easily still all snow at BOS at 18z and so is NAM...I think there's pretty good agreement now on sometime after 3pm for them.

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