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March 13-14 Storm Observations


The Iceman

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

NJ expat here - grew up near the north end of Mt. Holly CWA.

This event shouldn't be matched with 2001 (as others have noted), but is more like January 2015, when a 12-16" forecast (Gloucester Cty, where we were visiting family) produced all snow, but only 1.5" which was gone 4 hr after accum ended.  Unlike 3/01 and 1/15 when the strengthening came too far north, this area got the whole storm but with the wrong p-type. 

No it's not a perfect match to March 2001 for reasons you've stated; but there are plenty of similarities.

We didn't miss as much of March 2001 as people think. I remember it well, it literally snowed at a moderate clips all day long in Colts Neck NJ, it simply didn't stick because of March sun angle. We could have easily been good for about 5 or 6 inches that day and had it been January we would have had it. The problem was we missed out on the 2 inch per hour rates which would have overcome the sun angle problem.

It's hard to compare a Janaury bust to a late March bust for obvious reasons. This is it for the year, just like it was in March 2001. January busts have a different feel to them. You can dust yourself off and look for the next one. The next one up is spring now.

 

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6 hours ago, hazwoper said:

well, the roads were terrible here and I can confirm there is no way we would have had school in Council Rock

There is no way even Pennsbury would have only had a delay with sleet falling until noon.  sorry, but you're wrong

we had school during several times when the roads were just wet regardless what was falling. I only graduated there 8 years ago and without a doubt we would have had school if it wasn't as hyped as it was. if they called for 3-6 inches of mix without a doubt in my mind we would of had school today because the roads werent bad at all. had school several times in conditions worse.

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Sticking to my knowledge...Albrightsville,Carbon has 12.6' at 10:30 AM (mixed w/sleet), Only report that has AM ...after sleet it went right back to Snow/Snow+ for another 4 1/2 hrs....Also tonight no blue over our location we had another lift steady Snow for 2/3 hrs...just like the NWS Discusiion said we might...Measured 7 spots from around as much as I could manage---18"...        

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25 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

we had school during several times when the roads were just wet regardless what was falling. I only graduated there 8 years ago and without a doubt we would have had school if it wasn't as hyped as it was. if they called for 3-6 inches of mix without a doubt in my mind we would of had school today because the roads werent bad at all. had school several times in conditions worse.

Really?  I guess than CR, CB, Centennial, etc will be opening tomorrow.......oh wait.....their all CLOSED.  Plus Pennsbury and neshaminy open with 2 hr delay

rhe roads were not "wet".  Sort 413 is right outside my window.  It was snow/sleet covered from 6am until noon.

 

again, you are dead wrong and the points above ends the argument 

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4 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Really?  I guess than CR, CB, Centennial, etc will be opening tomorrow.......oh wait.....their all CLOSED

 

again, you are dead wrong and the point above ends the argument 

oh wait Pennsbury is open so is every other school in lower bucks so how am I wrong?  forgot those central bucks schools are a bunch of wimps that will close for a flizzard but down south we have standards for a snow day.

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

oh wait Pennsbury is open so is every other school in lower bucks so how am I wrong?  forgot those central bucks schools are a bunch of wimps that will close for a flizzard but down south we have standards for a snow day.

You are wrong because it is the day AFTER the storm.  They absolutely would never have opened with conditions they way they were today.  PERIOD

you are a clueless child

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Just now, hazwoper said:

You are wrong because it is the day AFTER the storm.  They absolutely would never have opened with conditions they way they were today.  PERIOD

you have no clue what conditions were down here. the roads were mainly wet by 830 am. quit talking about **** you have no idea about.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

you have no clue what conditions were down here. the roads were mainly wet by 830 am. quit talking about **** you have no idea about.

Then WHY ARE DELAYED OPEN TOMORROW?  

I was out on main road at 6:30 here tonight and several were snow covered still

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Storm total here in Concord Township  was 6.2"  - 3.0" of snow from 10 pm to 4 am, then 3.0" of sleet from 4 am to 9 am, then another 0.20" of snow the rest of the day from rounds of light snow. I slept through most of the sleet (5 am to about 8 am) and was surprised to see as much as there was. Also had a glaze of ice (maybe 0.05" max) on branches from some freezing rain that was probably mixing in with the sleet. Did a lot of heavy lifting today, haha.

Initially I was disappointed with the changeover happening so early, although I can't say it was that surprising given the path and strength of the storm. But today was nice, windy with off and on light snow as things wound down, hardly any cars on the road (as if it had in fact snowed 12" or more), plenty of shoveling, and the storm total was more than twice the previous high for here this season (2.9" just last Friday). This snow cover is solid, even if it is "only" 6 inches. Seasonal total here is now 17.8", with over half of that in March. Still about 60% of normal for the season here, but nice to have winter finishing well.

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7 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Storm total here in Concord Township  was 6.2"  - 3.0" of snow from 10 pm to 4 am, then 3.0" of sleet from 4 am to 9 am, then another 0.20" of snow the rest of the day from rounds of light snow. I slept through most of the sleet (5 am to about 8 am) and was surprised to see as much as there was. Also had a glaze of ice (maybe 0.05" max) on branches from some freezing rain that was probably mixing in with the sleet. Did a lot of heavy lifting today, haha.

Initially I was disappointed with the changeover happening so early, although I can't say it was that surprising given the path and strength of the storm. But today was nice, windy with off and on light snow as things wound down, hardly any cars on the road (as if it had in fact snowed 12" or more), plenty of shoveling, and the storm total was more than twice the previous high for here this season (2.9" just last Friday). This snow cover is solid, even if it is "only" 6 inches. Seasonal total here is now 17.8", with over half of that in March. Still about 60% of normal for the season here, but nice to have winter finishing well.

Am thinking you were able to create an awesome squirrel mount! :thumbsup:

Breeze kept up overnight (wind adv up for today) so it would have been interesting to see how low it might have gone if there was radiational cooling.

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A snow shower must have passed through overnight, there was a light dusting on the car and driveway this morning. I'd guesstimate 7" of snow and sleet before compaction set in. While the storm didn't live up to it's billing, it was the best one of the season imby. 

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This was far and away more difficult to deal with then the blizzard last year. Watching people on my way into work...if you didn't do all the shoveling last night, you were facing solid ice today. This had a much larger impact than 12 inches of snow. 

 

Im ready for spring now.

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Driving around this morning, there were a number of spots where the roads were in bad shape - even on the more well-traveled roads.  Closing schools yesterday and delaying the openings today was most definitely the right call.  IMO, as Jsdphilly stated, the impact was as bad as it would have been if we'd received all snow (which would have likely been 15" to 20").

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2 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said:

Thread headline calls it a bust, but isn't this a pretty typical regional outcome for a Miller B?

Yeah... I really don't understand why that. People just got hooked on some crazy model totals... We got a decent storm, but short of crazy totals, maybe disappointing for some... but not a bust.

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5 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Am thinking you were able to create an awesome squirrel mount! :thumbsup:

Breeze kept up overnight (wind adv up for today) so it would have been interesting to see how low it might have gone if there was radiational cooling.

You know it! Pretty worn out today as a result. Biggest pile of the season and it all came from within 40 feet of the pile. Had some nice snow blocks suitable for igloo building.

Snowpile-3-15-17.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said:

Thread headline calls it a bust, but isn't this a pretty typical regional outcome for a Miller B?

You have to keep in mind who started the thread, and the much-less-severe-than-forecast impacts in his neighborhood.  Most people I've interacted with since yesterday - while they did think the snow forecast was bad - realize that the overall impacts were nearly as bad (or perhaps even worse than) if all the precip had fallen as snow.

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45 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said:

Thread headline calls it a bust, but isn't this a pretty typical regional outcome for a Miller B?

It was a hybrid closer to 70/30 miller A storm and moisture feed from the gulf and cyclogenisis over the Carolina's with the northern energy pulling it all north up the coast. Every computer model known to man had my region at 15"+. NWS forecast was 18"+ with most likely accumulations around 21"

With 7" total I can't call it a bust?

Now to be clear you have to break this down to regions. The lower counties of Chester, Montco, Bucks and from there you can run a line ENE to NYC were within the 10-20 miles of the critical change line expected so they KNEW they had bust potential and it could go either way a blizzard or yesterdays result. They can't complain with the outcome. Areas just north of Chester, Montco, Bucks ENE to NYC still had nice totals generally over 10" but were held down by some sleet intrusion from a warm layer. They had a MECS hard to complain about a bust if you still got a MECS.

NO it was a thin band of folks in a roughly 15 mile wide corridor essentially running from upper upper Chester, Montco, Bucks ENE to NYC that were the screw zone. People in that zone can b**ch all they want they busted. 

 

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