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March 13-14 Storm Observations


The Iceman

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it looks like it's going to very fittingly end as sleet here after maybe a hour of light blowing snow. would estimate about 5 inches, but will get a final official measurement when I go shovel. I can now finally confirm that this is the biggest bust that Ive been alive to witness and track. The official forecast was 18-24 inches as the event started, and even was updated half way through, when it was clear things were going  very wrong, to 12-16 inches and ended with a lousy 5 inches...that is just a terrible job of not only forcasting, but nowcasting as well, by almost every pro in this area besides Larry Cosgrove. i mean amateurs on here knew by 4 or 5 am that this was going to be significantly less than advertised yet the blizzard warning and updated totals were not updated until mid morning mere hours before the storm was ending. i may have been harsh earlier with my criticism of the pros, but it really is inexcusable to be that far off in this day and age of constant information. it seems that too many pros were using modelology instead of meteorology as the storm unfolded. I just hope we get some kind of follow up in the near future of just how this went so horribly wrong so that we, as well as the general public, can understand and learn instead of just being (justifiably) outraged. most main roads around here are just wet or a little slushy. if they were treated with salt then there was no ice at all on the road, just a wet slush. this is going to effect many many people the next few days as the entire state of nj was shut down for the day for essentially no reason. at the very least business essential employees could have came in. Now, people in the state will not receive checks on time, services will be behind, ect... and the public understands this when a crippling storm hits but it makes the state look bad as well when they shut the entire state down and it busts horribly like this. not to mention all of the private businesses that closed today as well. 

 

Still this will be either my largest or 2nd largest event of the year.. but came up just short enough to keep me below normal on the year by 2 inches. i thought 100% I'd at the very least get that.  i don't think I'll ever get hyped for a "historical" March snow storm ever again as it seems that almost always something goes wrong. 6 inch storms seem to the max amount reliably happening here. big snow events just do not happen in this area in the month of March. the ones that produce enough qpf are too strong and bring too much warm air unless we have an incredibly strong arctic high in place. if its cold enough for all snow then the system most likely isn't strong enough to produce the qpf needed for a foot or more.  i learned today that there's a reason we ve seen only like 1 March snow of a foot or more in like over 100 years(not nw suburbs but in general se pa and nj). i will be skeptical of any event bringing significant(12" or more) snow in March no matter how many models show it happening from now on. forecasters should do the same and keep this event in the back of their minds before going all in on a historical event in the middle of march. it will be interesting to see if the fallout is as severe as March 01.

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Hard to measure, but got about 6 inches. My biggest storm of the year. Just too much sleet fell. 

I know meteorology in an inexact sciemce, and the meteorologists do their best to keep us informed and safe. If one factor like a warm layer goes wrong, it can throw off the whole forecast. I think mets get too much criticism from the public. Here though maybe they were slow to change totals. 

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 Major bust here in Bordentown New Jersey. Yesterday I knew that the NAM and the RGEM made the most sense but didn't want to believe it due to the GFS and HRRR insisting on high snow totals. It's pretty simple, with a low pressure tracking over or just along New Jersey during the month of March you simply do not see heavy snow. This was either going to be a dry slot or a sleet storm. This threat has really been over for two days since that was when it became apparent the low pressure would track right on the coast or just inland. From a meteorological standpoint that simply is not proper track for heavy snowfall in the tri-state area. Any pro should have recognized that track would flood the mid levels with warmth way inland. Kudos to the NAM. We've all learned a lesson.

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The snow was higher quality than I expected, more snow than sleet here. Just about done digging out. Light snow and light wind. About 10-11" for my event total (hard to measure accurately). My Dad had to take a short trip to take my mom to work (a 5 mile drive on 662 road conditions were more dicey than he expected but made it home safely) 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

it will be interesting to see if the fallout is as severe as March 01.

Probably not, since the March 2001 storm was almost a complete miss (very little QPF for our area, as the storm formed further north/northeast than modeled).  This was a case of the storm being further west than much of the modeling indicated (particularly the GFS), introducing more warmth - particularly at mid-levels.  So the QPF wasn't far off - just snow amounts.

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1 minute ago, JCT777 said:

Probably not, since the March 2001 storm was almost a complete miss (very little QPF for our area, as the storm formed further north/northeast than modeled).  This was a case of the storm being further west than much of the modeling indicated (particularly the GFS), introducing more warmth - particularly at mid-levels.  So the QPF wasn't far off - just snow amounts.

Yeah I think the qpf was pretty much spot on - especially at the shore as I heard some spots got 3+" of rain.  P-type was a miss for areas around the 195 corridor.  In this case (and previous ones), forecasting the r/s line is next to impossible beyond nowcasting.  Far NW did at least cash in for a March storm.

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funny tid bit

 

Our school system has gone 0-2 in school closings this year. Two closing.......wet roads only....rain storm.  Granted we did see some slushy accums in the early AM hours but nothing worthy of closing schools and businesses. Not even close.

Here comes a "back in my day" comment:

 

I recall if there was not 4"+ on the ground, we went to school. That means buses bused, commuters drove and walkers walked. They also did not close until that morning, never the day before a storm even began. Also, outside of waking up to a blizzard, my dad always went to work. 

 

I have no beef with forecasters.  We look at the same and see the same. All day yesterday friends, family and co workers were asking me "what is the skinny on the storm" and all I could state was "thank gosh I am not a pro forecaster working for NWS because I would not want to even try and put the chips on the table."  When pushed, I said plan on mostly rain with some snow and sleet because its March and we live close to the beach.

Chit happens. We could all post the years, months and dates. 

 

At least the Hummer got a good bath and is brine free :)

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45 minutes ago, JCT777 said:

Probably not, since the March 2001 storm was almost a complete miss (very little QPF for our area, as the storm formed further north/northeast than modeled).  This was a case of the storm being further west than much of the modeling indicated (particularly the GFS), introducing more warmth - particularly at mid-levels.  So the QPF wasn't far off - just snow amounts.

I don't think the general public really cares if qpf was far off or not. they only care if the snow amount was close to what was forecasted. I highly doubt there would have been mass closings if 3-6 was forecasted, which is what verified from Philly and surrounding burbs on east. i have seen many posts already on social media from non Weather hobbyists about how bad the weather people screwed this up and that such and such should not have closed. roads have been very good all morning even in the heavy sleet since they were all treated. with heavy traffic most of them would have just been wet. fact is the busted snow forecast cost a lot of people in the area a lot of money for a storm that wasn't really all that disruptive.

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28 minutes ago, SP said:

fHere comes a "back in my day" comment:

 

I recall if there was not 4"+ on the ground, we went to school. That means buses bused, commuters drove and walkers walked. They also did not close until that morning, never the day before a storm even began. Also, outside of waking up to a blizzard, my dad always went to work.

I remember back in HS in the mid-late 70s when I took 2 SEPTA buses to school every day, we had to deal with the hills (that went for anyone living in NW Philly as I still do). When it snowed like this and school was open (rare for snow back then but by '77/'78 we did start getting snow again), the bus couldn't get up the hills. And because of the weather, more people were on the buses so they were always packed and often drove right by your stop.  At one egregious hill, the driver would always tell us to get off the bus, walk up to the top of the hill so he could get the bus up it without sliding back down, and then we could get back on at the top.  Years later they eventually changed that bus route so it did not use that steep hill anymore and now SEPTA just cancels those bus routes altogether.

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officially ended with 5.5 inches. had 3.5 inches of snow before the change. I'm guessing we had around the same amount sleet at least but won't know for sure due to compaction. ended up making a giant snow glacier kamu style while shoveling the drive way so I can say that part of my back yard verified 24" :lol: I don't think that thing is melting until June with how solid it is...

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Light snow has continued here contributing to another 1.0" over the past 2 hrs with a total of 12.5" as of 2:00 p.m.

Snow intensity has picked up a bit now, temp 30.   Occasional wind gusts around 20 mph, but overall the wind has been pretty calm.

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