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March 13-14 Storm Observations


The Iceman

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6 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Heavy Sleet now transitioning back to snow here in NW Chester County PA

Temp at 26

Snow/IP so far 6.0" as of 830am - sleet balls are rolling off roof....

less than 10 miles south of you on the West Bradford/Thorndale border and still all sleet

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I feel like every time I was looking at maps, this event was going to be too warm. But every time a snow map was posted, it begged to differ. Fringe events never go Philadelphia's way. If temps might be marginal, they probably are. People are so used to bad forecasting though, it's really not even a big deal at this point.

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Next to impossible to measure, there are cars half way buried on one side and barely up to the rims on the other.  I would say around a foot but again, don't really have a clue.  Wind is taking the visability down to a couple hundred yards at times.  Unsure if we will hit two feet unless that death band / enhanced melting layer over NJ parks itself over NE PA for a bit.   Walking it is high shins to just below the knees, thigh high drifts.   That is the main deformation axis.

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2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

I feel like every time I was looking at maps, this event was going to be too warm. But every time a snow map was posted, it begged to differ. Fringe events never go Philadelphia's way. If temps might be marginal, they probably are. People are so used to bad forecasting though, it's really not even a big deal at this point.

Exactly. The proximity to the coast screamed warm layers and mix and I did say in the past a storm like this would bring all kinds of mix and rain issues. Models blew it.

 

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Mt. Holly Philly update -

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
813 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION...

.A still intensifying storm near Wallops Island at daybreak will
be astride the New Jersey coast during midday, then off to
southeastern New England this evening. The storm will continue to
produce a nasty mix of hazardous conditions to much of our
region through midday. Blizzard conditions are likely for a few
hours in east central and northeast Pennsylvania as well as
northern quarter of New Jersey, where snowfall rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour are forecast during mid and late morning.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-142200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Delaware-Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Pennsville,
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media,
and Philadelphia
813 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...The Interstate 95 Corridor in northeastern
  Maryland, northern Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania and
  southwestern New Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Sleet and freezing rain possibly changing back to
  a brief period of heavy snow during midday before ending by mid
  afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Storm total snow accumulation of 2 to 6 inches,
  along with around a tenth to one quarter inch of glaze.

* TIMING...Mixed heavy amounts of wintry precipitation will
  continue this morning, possibly ending as snow between Noon and
  3 PM.

* IMPACTS...Ice and snow accumulations will create treacherous
  driving conditions. The weight of the ice and snow on tree limbs
  and power lines could produce scattered outages. Strong winds
  will lead to additional power outages.

* WINDS...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 30s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means that severe winter
weather conditions are occurring. Significant amounts of snow are
forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight... food
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Report snow and ice accumulation to the National Weather Service
by calling our trained spotter line...posting to the NWS Mount
Holly Facebook page or by using Twitter.

Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to
experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest
event are available online at www.weather.gov/phi/winter

&&

$$

 Updated accumulation for 2" - 6" which is probably a good call assuming it doesn't suddenly pivot more east putting us under a very cold (through the whole column) death band.

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That heavy band has been almost all sleet (with the occasional flakes of snow mixed in)  in Spring Mount, PA.  It changed to primarily sleet here a bit before 5 AM after 4.5" of snow fell.  Since then, I've picked up over 2" of sleet - more than half of that since 8 AM.  Still sleeting fairly heavily and 24.4 degrees (which is down from 26.7 at 5 AM).  So temps have been dropping while it's been sleeting.

 

And this "waiting for the sleet to change back to all snow" is so much like the sleetfest in March 2007.  That time, it never did change back to snow IMBY.  Maybe it will this time.

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Is anybody in that band of heavy whatever that's pivoting? Is it still sleet in that band?

Lehigh Valley going back to heavy sleet, apparently the line is meandering back and forth in the I 78 corridor on the PA side.  Thought the transition back to snow at 7am would have been permanent this far north.

 

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