nw baltimore wx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Snow changeover is coming for us Baltimore countyers Just switched. Why didn't you post that earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Just switched. Why didn't you post that earlier? Just looked out my window little pixie dust flakes. Our little band is kinda fizzling out now of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 New western band starting to fire up. Back to light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Just went out and shoveled the dreaded snow plow mountain at the bottom of my driveway. This is some heavy ass wet snow. Serious compaction going on. I am going to call it 7.5 inches for the event. Probably had a little more at some point. Expecting an iceberg at the bottom of the driveway in the morning. 31/27 overcast This snow is extremely heaving considering temps were in the 20's from about 10pm on. Probably less than 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: New western band starting to fire up. Back to light snow. An inch of fluff and some strong winds would do wonders for morale around here. Send it East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: New western band starting to fire up. Back to light snow. Yes. Pretty out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Lots of different areas of "energy" converging on the metro... Hope one of them can hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Flurries are back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 It's trying to flip back to snow in Towson, but the sky is getting light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Pretty good burst of moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I see sun, so that's probably not great for last gasp snow. We never flipped back to snow here after the flip to sleet at 1:15 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This bonus band is pretty decent. Light snow but good size flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 HRRR had terrible runs regarding snow accumulation, as late as the 2z run I remember it putting down about 12-15" for my area (weatherbell accumulation), bizarre that I don't remember models showing any Sleet potential until about 3 days out, it was strictly rain or snow. Tough to say what model performed the "best", but I would say RGEM because it was the best with Upper Levels and Surface, UKMET performed good too but surface was colder than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 As I promised in the banter thread, I would do a quick after action write up. So, here's what I got right. QPF was way underpredicted by the models, as expected things phased sooner, and we were certainly not too far south for this Miller B. Had the low been just 75 miles east, this would've been a much different storm for everyone. I expected the low to develop more along the gulf stream, since that seemed to be the usual location that lows want to jump considering all other factors being equal. Here is what I missed. The lack of a full phase and instead an energy transfer really hurt us. By staying disconnected from the main h5 low, the shortwave was not given enough room to amplify. The storm was and continues to be warm air advection dominant. A strong CCB never really got going (good prediction by the models until well in to NE PA/NY). Even there, it is not as impressive a CCB as many other large storms. The other thing that both myself and the models missed was the lack of blocking contributing to the fast movement. This is going to significantly cut down on totals and I will be surprised to see any reports over 20 inches. As far as what could've saved us in the mid levels is a stronger, more consolidated vort. Probably the biggest lesson I've learned from this storm is a good dynamic snow is entirely driven by h5. A 990 low off OC is great, but when you don't have a sharp vort, there will be a lot of warm air intrusion at the mid levels. A stronger 850 low could've helped here too. Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Anyone interested in post-storm analysis threads for anomalous events? Booms/busts, surprise squalls, early/late season stuff, hecs (when they happen). I can already see this particular event as a good case study! - having no blocking high in place matters (especially early and late season) - snow maps only support reality when ratios match (32 degree snowflakes are not the same as 20 degree snowflakes and sleet never has as high ratios as pure snowflakes) - model trends are important (globals were trending badly (warmer) late in the game within the last 36 hours or so, even though short range guidance was improving (colder) with their late frames (later frames shouldn't be trusted as often) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Hopefully this band holds together and amplifies for you guys to east. Coming down pretty good actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said: As I promised in the banter thread, I would do a quick after action write up. So, here's what I got right. QPF was way underpredicted by the models, as expected things phased sooner, and we were certainly not too far south for this Miller B. Had the low been just 75 miles east, this would've been a much different storm for everyone. I expected the low to develop more along the gulf stream, since that seemed to be the usual location that lows want to jump considering all other factors being equal. Here is what I missed. The lack of a full phase and instead an energy transfer really hurt us. By staying disconnected from the main h5 low, the shortwave was not given enough room to amplify. The storm was and continues to be warm air advection dominant. A strong CCB never really got going (good prediction by the models until well in to NE PA/NY). Even there, it is not as impressive a CCB as many other large storms. The other thing that both myself and the models missed was the lack of blocking contributing to the fast movement. This is going to significantly cut down on totals and I will be surprised to see any reports over 20 inches. As far as what could've saved us in the mid levels is a stronger, more consolidated vort. Probably the biggest lesson I've learned from this storm is a good dynamic snow is entirely driven by h5. A 990 low off OC is great, but when you don't have a sharp vort, there will be a lot of warm air intrusion at the mid levels. A stronger 850 low could've helped here too. Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk You just beat me to it! I highly suggest a thread for these... eta: I have never had the honors to start o a thread, so I'm going to try this idea out by compiling similar comments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I had mentioned Sunday that the GFS ran too cold in NC in the early January storm and voiced concerns that it would be too cold again. It often misses those warm layers and shows too much of a rain/snow transition without enough sleet and/or freezing rain in between. The 3 km NAM parallel nest ptype forecast from 12z yesterday was pretty decent. I dismissed the idea of some freezing rain, but it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Nice flakes all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Up to 36 in Germantown - hoping the sun pops out and we break 40. I just wish my driveway faced south or west instead of NE. I ain't shoveling that. Here's hoping for a big SE ridge soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said: Up to 36 in Germantown - hoping the sun pops out and we break 40. I just wish my driveway faced south or west instead of NE. I ain't shoveling that. Here's hoping for a big SE ridge soon. You don't want to. I just did and it's barely even snow, it's like shoveling ice chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Looks like the snowshowers over MD are building west a little, maybe will affect the district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Tiny little dust flakes falling now along with the melted stuff from the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice flakes all of a sudden. Ditto. Same in southern olney; it'll probably taper soon. I measured ~4.5 of sleet/snow with an old ruler. After the sleet changeover, we didn't see any real snow until this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 All of the sudden windblown -SN with bigger flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 light, but getting close to moderate, snow in southeast Howard County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, supernovasky said: You don't want to. I just did and it's barely even snow, it's like shoveling ice chunks. I have a bad back and won't even attempt it, but I do have a little snowblower. Since my driveway is small -- approx 20 feet by 20 feet -- I just have one of those little cord-powered blowers. I'm gonna go ahead and see what it does later. LOL it might not even bite into it, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Radar has an interesting look to it, things look to be consolidating a little...maybe we can pick up a quick whitening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 18 minutes ago, high risk said: I had mentioned Sunday that the GFS ran too cold in NC in the early January storm and voiced concerns that it would be too cold again. It often misses those warm layers and shows too much of a rain/snow transition without enough sleet and/or freezing rain in between. The 3 km NAM parallel nest ptype forecast from 12z yesterday was pretty decent. I dismissed the idea of some freezing rain, but it was right. Nice analysis. That bottom image is literally spot on for everyone and everything that occurred. It looks exactly like the radar looked at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The weather always humbles you when you think you have it figured out. I'm just a weenie but if someone told me we would have a 994, deepening and riding the beaches from VA Beach northward, I would say Bench Mark! At least for my area that track is a bench mark...Couldnt get consistent rates above 1"/hr. I was really looking forward to something dynamic out this way as usually those dynamics stay to my east. No mix here and a final measurement of 8.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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